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BERNOULLI TRIAL
A Bernoulli Trial is a random experiment that has two
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A random variable X is said to follow binomial
n x
P(X x) p (1 p ) n x ; x 0,1,2,......., n
x
0, otherwise
n! x px x qn-x
x! (n - x)!
p=characteristic probability or probability of
success
q=1-p
x=no. of successes desired
n=no. of trials undertaken
PHYSICAL CONDITIONS
The number of trials n should be finite.
The trials must be independent of each other.
The probability of success must be constant.
PROPERTIES
Expectation: E(X)=np
EXAMPLE
A and B play a game in which their chances of
p=3/5
q=1-3/5= 2/5
Probability of x successes in n trials
FORMULA
USED-
=
n!
x px x
qn-x
x! (n - x)!
5
P(X 3)=
x=3
3r . 25-x =0.68
x
55
V(X 3)=np(1-p)=5x(3/5)x(2/5)=6/5=1.2
expectation.
POISSION PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
It is concerned with certain processes that can be
described by a discrete random variable.
Applied when:
Probability of occurrence of an event is independent of
the other
the number of times a particular event occurs in a unit is
to be counted
probability of occurrence on an event depends only on the
duration/size of the time-interval/region but not on the
timing/position of the time-interval/region.
As the unit gets smaller, the probability that two or more
events will occur in that unit approaches zero
e x
P( x)
, for x 0, 1,2,...
x!
= mean number of occurrences per interval of time
> 0; = np
e = 2.718
Example: Patients arrive at the emergency room of an
Hospital at the average rate of 6 per hour. Then probability
of arrival of 3 patients:
P(x=3; =6) = {(6)^3 X e^(-6)}/3
= 0.0892
PROPERTIES OF POISSION
DISTRIBUTION
If X follows a p(x; ) distribution. Then,
Expectation :
Variance
:
E(X) =
V(X) =
Continuous Probability
Distributions
Uniform Probability Distribution
Normal Probability Distribution
Exponential Probability Distribution
F(x)
F(x)
F(x )
uniform distribution
rectangular in
shape.
Simplest
distribution for
continuous random
variable.
The support is
defined by two
parameters, a and
b, which are the
maximum and
minimum value.
Normal Probability
Distribution
The normal probability distribution is the
variable are
given by areas under the curve. The total
area
under the curve is 1 (.5 to the left of the
mean and
.5 to the right).
95.44%
68.26%
3
1
2
+ 3
+ 1
+ 2
From the 68-95-99.7 rule we know that for a variable with the
random variable.
Why Standardize?
It can help you make decisions about your data.
We can see how many standard deviations a point lies away
Normal Approximation
of Binomial Probabilities
EXAMPLE- Suppose that a sample of n = 1,600 tyres of the same type are
obtained at random from an ongoing production process in which 8% of all
such tyres produced are defective. What is the probability that in such a
sample ,150 tyres will be defective?
SOLUTION Here, np = 1,600(.08) = 128 , using the normal distribution to
approximate the binomial probabalities ;
The probability of obtaining 150 defective tyres is defined as the area
(under the normal curve) between 149.5 and 150.5..
+2.07) is 0.9808 and the area under the curve to the left of X =
149.5 (Z = +1.98) is 0.9761.
Thus, the approximate probability of obtaining 150 defective
tires is the difference in the two areas,
= 0.9808-0.9761
= 0.0047.
The probability of obtaining 150 defective tyres is 0.0047
Thank You