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Risk Management
Sources of Variability
Schedule variability task duration times are random
Budget variability costs may vary
Performance variability product or system may not
achieve its targeted specifications
Market requirement variability product specifications
required by the market may change
Market payoff variability market payoff may change
due to competition, environmental changes, etc.
Tornado Diagram
Sensitivity Chart
Wage Rate
Direct Labor Hours
Material Units Needed
Early Completion Bonus
Material Unit Costs
Interest Rates
Energy Costs
Overhead
10
11
General Form:
Payment to Subcontractor = Fixed Fee + (1 - B) (Project Cost),
B=1
Subcontractors
Risk
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Duration
Immediate
Starting
Finish
Crash
Crash
Normal
Normal
Slope
Marginal
Predecessors
Times
Times
Time
Cost
Time
Cost
(100$)
Cost Incr
(100$)
(100$)
(100$)
START
START
60
40
10
START
50
30
20
70
10
40
24
60
40
20
12
50
30
10
C, D
17
90
11
60
C, D
13
60
30
15
13
17
40
20
E, G
13
17
50
20
10
END
F, I, H
17
17
Totals
530
310
74
21
Duration
Immediate
Starting
Finish
Crash
Crash
Normal
Normal
Slope
Marginal
Predecessors
Times
Times
Time
Cost
Time
Cost
(100$)
Cost Incr
(100$)
(100$)
(100$)
START
START
60
40
10
START
50
30
20
70
10
40
24
60
40
20
12
50
30
10
C, D
17
90
11
60
C, D
13
60
30
15
13
17
40
20
E, G
13
17
50
20
10
END
F, I, H
17
17
Totals
530
310
74
22
23