CHAPTER8

MarketingResearchand
SalesForecasting
ChapterObjectives
6
1 Describethedevelopment 4 Explainthedifferent
ofthemarketingresearch
samplingtechniquesused
functionanditsmajor
bymarketingresearchers.
activities.
5 Identifythemethodsby
2 Explainthestepsinthe
whichmarketing
7
marketingresearch
researcherscollect
process.
primarydata.
3 Distinguishbetween
primaryandsecondary
dataandidentifythe
sourcesofeachtype.

Explainthechallengesof
conductingmarketing
researchinglobal
markets.
Outlinethemost
importantusesof
computertechnologyin
marketingresearch.

8 Identifythemajortypes
offorecastingmethods.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

THEMARKETINGRESEARCHFUNCTION
MarketingresearchProcessofcollectingandusinginformationfor
marketingdecisionmaking.
Researchiscentraltounderstandingeffectivecustomersatisfactionand
customerrelationshipprograms.

DEVELOPMENTOFTHEMARKETINGRESEARCH
FUNCTION
Firstorganizedmarketingresearchconductedin1879byN.W.Ayer.
SecondmilestonewasfoundingbyCharlesC.Parlinin1911ofthe
nationsfirstcommercialresearchdepartmentatCurtisPublishing,
publisherofTheSaturdayEveningPost.
1930sbettersamplingtechniquesandgreateraccuracy.
Computertechnologyhassignificantlyadvancedmarketresearch.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

WHOCONDUCTSMARKETINGRESEARCH?
Manyfirmsoutsourceresearchneeds;majorU.S.marketingresearchfirms
includeACNielsenandArbitron.
Syndicatedservicesregularlyprovideastandardizedsetofdatatoall
customers.
Fullserviceresearchsupplierconductscompletemarketingresearch
projects.
Limitedserviceresearchsupplierspecializesinalimitednumberof
activities,suchasconductingfieldinterviewsorperformingdataprocessing.

CUSTOMERSATISFACTIONMEASUREMENT
PROGRAMS
Firmsoftenfocusontrackingsatisfactionlevelsofcurrentcustomersand
analyzedissatisfactiontoidentifyproblemareas.
Organizationsmayoutsourcethesestudiesorconductthemthemselves.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

THEMARKETINGRESEARCHPROCESS
Usuallyfollowsasixstepprocess.

DEFINETHEPROBLEM
Welldefinedproblemsarehalfsolved.
Avoidconfusingsymptomswithproblemitself.
Lossofmarketshareisasymptom;
reasonforthelossistheproblem.
Evaluatefirmsmarketingmixandpossible
changestothemarketingenvironment.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

CONDUCTEXPLORATORYRESEARCH
ExploratoryresearchProcessofdiscussinga
marketingproblemwithinformedsourcesboth
withinandoutsidethefirmandexamining
informationfromsecondarysources.
Mayuseinternaldatafromcustomersurveys,
salesanalysis,accountingdata,andmarketing
costanalysis.

FORMULATEAHYPOTHESIS
Atentativeexplanationthatsetsthestagefor
moreindepthresearch.

CREATEARESEARCHDESIGN
Amasterplanormodelthatwillmeasurewhat
researchersintendtomeasure.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

COLLECTDATA
SecondarydataPreviouslypublishedinformation.
PrimarydataInformationcollectedspecifically
fortheinvestigationathand.

INTERPRETANDPRESENT
RESEARCHINFORMATION
Presentinaformatthatallowsmanagersto
makeeffectivejudgments.
Researchersandendusersmustcollaborateto
ensureeffectivenessofresearch.
Reportsmustbeclearandconcise.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

MARKETINGRESEARCHMETHODS
SECONDARYDATACOLLECTION
Secondarydatacomesfrominternalandexternalsources.
Governmentdatanationsmostimportantsourceofmarketingdata.
U.S.Census.
TIGERsystem,whichoverlaystopographicfeatureswithcensus
data.
Privatedatafromtradeassociations,businessandtrademagazines,and
othersources.
Onlinesourcessuchasdatabasesandresearchaggregatorsthatacquire,
catalog,reformat,segment,andresellpremiumresearchreports.
Internetdiscussiongroups,chatrooms,andnewsgroups.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

SAMPLINGTECHNIQUES
SamplingProcessofselectingsurveyrespondentsorresearchparticipants.
ProbabilitysampleSamplethatgiveseverymemberofthepopulationa
chanceofbeingselected.
Simplerandomsample,stratifiedsample,orclustersample.
NonprobabilitysampleSamplethatinvolvespersonaljudgment
somewhereintheprocess.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

PRIMARYRESEARCHMETHODS
Choiceofmethoddependsontheissuesunderstudyandthedecisions
marketersneedtomake.
Observationmethodresearchersviewthe
overtactionsofsubjectsbeingstudied.
InterpretiveresearchObservationalresearch
methoddevelopedbysocialanthropologistsin
whichcustomersareobservedintheirnatural
settingandtheirbehaviorisinterpretedbased
onanunderstandingofsocialandcultural
characteristics;alsoknownasethnography,
orgoingnative.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

SURVEYMETHOD
Telephoneinterviewsinexpensivewayofgettingasmall
quantityofrelativelyimpersonalinformation.
Personalinterviewsallowresearcherstoobtaindetailedinformationand
askfollowupquestions.
FocusgroupSimultaneouspersonalinterviewofasmallgroupof
individuals,whichreliesongroupdiscussionaboutacertaintopic.
Mailsurveyscosteffectivemeansthatallowsrespondentsanonymity.
Faxsurveysdifficulttogetgoodhouseholdsample,andfederaljunkfax
lawlimitsitsusecommercially.
OnlinesurveysandotherInternetbasedmethodsallowresearchersto
speedthesurveyprocess,increasesamplesizes,ignoregeographic
boundaries,anddramaticallyreducecosts.
Experimentalmethodcontrolledexperiment,forexample;leastused
method.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

CONDUCTINGINTERNATIONALMARKETING
RESEARCH
Followsamebasicstepsasfordomesticmarketingresearch.
U.S.DepartmentofCommerceoffersreportsandguidesaboutalmost
everycountryintheworld.
ExportAmericaandOverseasBusinessReports.
Researchersmustbeawareofculturalandlegalenvironments.
Mayhavetoadaptresearchmethodstolocalconditions.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

INTERPRETIVERESEARCH
Providesinsightintoconsumerbehaviorandthewaysconsumersinteract
withbrands.
Researcherspendstimestudyingtheculture,calledethnographicresearch.
Focusisonunderstandingthemeaningoftheproductorconsumptionin
theconsumerslife.
Costishigherthanotherformsofresearch.
Captureswhatconsumersactuallydo,notjustwhattheysaytheydo.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

COMPUTERTECHNOLOGYIN
MARKETINGRESEARCH
MARKETINGINFORMATIONSYSTEMS(MIS)
Aplanned,computerbasedsystemdesignedtoprovidedecisionmakers
withacontinuousflowofinformationrelevanttotheirareasof
responsibility.
Continuallymonitorsmarketingenvironmentandprovidesinstantaneous
information.

MARKETINGDECISIONSUPPORTSYSTEMS(MDSSs)
Marketingdecisionsupportsystem(MDSS)Marketinginformation
systemcomponentthatlinksadecisionmakerwithrelevantdatabasesand
analysistools.
Developsrawdataintoinformationusefulfordecisionmaking.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

DATAMINING
Theprocessofsearchingthroughcomputerizeddatafilestodetect
patterns.
Focusesonidentifyingrelationshipsthatarenotobvioustomarketers.
Efficientwaytosortthroughhugeamountsofdataandmakesenseofit.

BUSINESSINTELLIGENCE
Processofgatheringinformationandanalyzingittoimprovebusiness
strategy,tactics,anddailyoperations.

COMPETITIVEINTELLIGENCE
Aformofbusinessintelligencethatfocusesonfindinginformationabout
competitorsusingpublishedsources,interviews,observationsby
salespeopleandsuppliersintheindustry,andothersources.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

SALESFORECASTING
SalesforecastEstimateofafirmsrevenueforaspecifiedtimeperiod.

QUALITATIVEFORECASTINGTECHNIQUES
Juryofexecutiveopinioncombiningandaveragingtheoutlooksoftop
executives.
Delphitechniquesolicitingopinionsfromseveralpeopleandgathering
inputfromoutsideexperts.
Salesforcecompositeforecastingbasedoninternalinsightsconcerning
shorttermfuturesales.
Surveyofbuyerintentionsgatheringinputtodeterminethepurchasing
intentionsofarepresentativegroupofpresentandpotentialcustomers.

CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

QUANTITATIVEFORECASTINGTECHNIQUES
Testmarketsgaugingconsumerresponsestoanew
productunderactualmarketplaceconditions.
Trendanalysisdevelopingforecastsforfuturesalesby
analyzingthehistoricalrelationshipbetweensalesandtime.
Exponentialsmoothingweighingeachyearssalesdata,
givinggreaterweighttoresultsfromthemostrecentyears.