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Mapping New Yorks

Presidential Primary
(with an emphasis on NYC)
Presentation at City Limits/Gotham Gazette
discussion
Our Turn: The 2016 Campaign Comes to NYC
Steven Romalewski
CUNY Mapping Service
The Graduate Center / City University of New York
www.electionatlas.nyc
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Who Can Vote in New York


State?
5.3 million registered Democrats.
2.6 million registered Republicans.
Its a closed primary, so the other 2.9
million registered voters in NYS
27% are shut out.
Data source: NYS Board of Elections, as analyzed by Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center

Democratic enrollment
Its a Democratic state no county
below 20% Democrats.
Downstate is largest concentration:
2.7 million Dems in NYC;
Almost 1 million on LI & Westchester
combined.

Some concentrations in upstate


counties (Tompkins, Albany) & cities
(Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse).
Data source: NYS Board of Elections, as analyzed by Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center

GOP enrollment
Outside cities, GOP enrollment is
substantial (generally 30% or more
per county).
But density is key:
Hamilton Co. has largest % GOP (59%), but
only 2,500 Republicans in county
covering 1,700 sq mi.
Brooklyn's voter pop. is only 8% GOP, but
Brooklyn is home to 100,000
Republicans in a county covering only 70
sq
mi.
Data source: NYS Board of Elections, as analyzed by Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center
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Who will likely vote?


Past elections can guide us though
past performance is no guarantee of
future results especially in this
particularly unpredictable season.
In most recent presidential primaries:
Dem turnout in 2008 was 37%
GOP turnout in 2012 was 7%

How the vote results will


matter
Popular vote: who wins the state;
bragging rights; momentum toward
conventions.
Delegate count: allocated mainly by
Congressional district; direct impact
on who gets nominated for general
election.
Tea leaves: what will local results

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2008 Democratic primary


Clinton v Obama
Clinton won popular vote ~57% to
40%, and received 139 of 232
delegates

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2014 Democratic primary


Cuomo v Teachout
Sanders looking at Teachout results?

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Primary voters in NYC

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de Blasio effect?

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Trends, and 2017

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For more info, contact:


Steven Romalewski
212-817-2033
sromalewski@gc.cuny.
edu
@sr_spatial
CUNY Mapping Service at the Center for Urban Research
The Graduate Center / CUNY
365 Fifth Ave., Room 6202
New York, NY 10016
www.urbanresearch.org
www.electionatlas.nyc
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