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Process (AHP)
for
Decision Making
Decision Making involves
setting priorities and the AHP
is the methodology for doing
that.
1-1
Decision Making
We need to prioritize both tangible and intangible criteria:
In most decisions, intangibles such as
political factors and
social factors
take precedence over tangibles such as
economic factors and
technical factors
It is not the precision of measurement on a particular factor
that determines the validity of a decision, but the importance
we attach to the factors involved.
How do we assign importance to all the factors and synthesize
this diverse information to make the best decision?
1-3
100
Bad for
comfort
Good for
comfort
Bad for
preserving food
Good for
preserving food
Temperature
1-5
Bad for
comfort
Making a Decision
Widget B is cheaper than Widget A
Widget A is better than Widget B
Which Widget would you choose?
1-6
B
V
A
B
V
A
Suppose the criteria are preferred in the order shown and the
cars are preferred as shown for each criterion. Which car
should be chosen? It is desirable to know the strengths of
preferences for tradeoffs.
1-7
Kriteria
Kinerja
Pengambil
Keputusan
Alternatives
alat/rencana/
1-8
KOMPONEN KEPUTUSAN
Alternatif Keputusan
Kriteria Keputusan
Bobot Kriteria
Model Penilaian
Model Penghitungan
Tipe Pengambil Keputusan
1-9
Unity
:
Complexity:
Process Repetition
Judgment and
Consensus
Interdependenc
e:
AHP
Trade-off
Hierarchic Structuring
Measurement
Synthesis
Consistenc
y
MODEL PENILAIAN
Menggunakan Nilai Numerik (Nyata)
Menggunakan Nilai Ordinal (Skala)
Misal:
1. Sangat Kurang
4. Baik
2. Kurang
5. Sangat Baik
3. Cukup
Menggunakan Nilai Perbandingan Berpasangan
Misal pada AHP : <misal A dibandingkan dengan B>
1 : A dan B sama penting
Background on AHP
To understand the world we assume that:
We can describe it
We can define relations between
its parts and
We can apply judgment to relate the
parts according to
a goal or purpose that we
have in mind.
1-12
Conflicts
Options
Objectives
Political
Factors
Judgments
Scenarios
Criteria
Priorities
AHP
Allocations
Weights
Preference Ratios
1-13
GOAL
CRITERIA
ALTERNATIVES
1-14
1-15
Relative Measurement
In relative measurement a preference
judgment is expressed on each pair of
elements with respect to a common property
they share.
In practice this means that a pair of elements
in a level of the hierarchy are compared with
respect to parent elements to which they relate
in the level above.
1-16
1-17
Comparison Matrix
Given:
Apple A
Apple B
Apple C
Apple A
Apple B
Apple C
Apple A
S1/S1
S1/S2
S1/S3
Apple B
S2 / S 1
S2 / S 2
S2 / S 3
Apple C
S3 / S 1
S3 / S 2
S3 / S 3
1-18
Pairwise Comparisons
Size
Apple A
Size
Comparison
Apple A
Apple B
Apple B
Apple C
Apple C
Resulting
Priority
Eigenvector
Relative Size
of Apple
Apple A
6/10
Apple B
1/2
3/10
Apple C
1/6
1/3
1/10
Consistency
In this example Apple B is 3 times larger than Apple C. We can
obtain this value directly from the comparisons of Apple A
with Apples B & C as 6/2 = 3. But if we were to use judgment
we may have guessed it as 4. In that case we would have been
inconsistent.
Now guessing it as 4 is not as bad as guessing it as 5 or more.
The farther we are from the true value the more inconsistent we
are. The AHP provides a theory for checking the inconsistency
throughout the matrix and allowing a certain level of overall
inconsistency but not more.
1-20
Consistency cont.
1-21
Comparison of Intangibles
The same procedure as we use for size can be used to
compare things with intangible properties. For example,
we could also compare the apples for:
TASTE
AROMA
RIPENESS
1-22
1-23
Goal
Satisfaction with School
Learning
School
A
Friends
School
Life
Vocational
Training
School
B
1-24
College
Prep.
Music
Classes
School
C
1-25
Equal importance
Extreme importance
1/3 1/2
1/3
Friends
A B C
Priorities
Priorities
.16
.33
.45
.59
.33
1/5
1/5
.09
.25
.33
.46
College Prep.
A B C
School Life
A B C
Priorities
Music Classes
Priorities
Priorities
.77
1/2
.25
.69
1/9
1/5
.05
.50
1/6
1/3
.09
1/7
.17
1/2
.25
1/4
.22
1-27
Benchmark Measurement
Instead of using intensities, we can compare all the alternatives
with respect to well known alternatives called benchmarks that
are different and range from the best to the worst for each
criterion. For example, with respect to dependability we can put
three well known individuals who are respectively, extremely
dependable, moderately dependable and undependable. With
respect to leadership we may use five such individuals and so on.
We then pairwise compare each individual with these
benchmarks to obtain a priority. Here again, in the end we can
use the distributive or ideal modes. The benchmarks are
compared only once. However, new judgments are needed for
each alternative when it is compared with them. For more work,
one obtains greater accuracy in the final priorities. This process
is known as Benchmark Measurement.
1-28
Memilih Komoditi
Agroindustri
Sasaran
Kriteria
Bahan Baku
Pemasaran
Teknologi
Proses
Alternati
f
Minyak
Sawit
Minyak
Sawit
Minyak
Sawit
Cokelat
Cokelat
Cokelat
Karet
Karet
Karet
Teh
Teh
Teh
Nilai
Keterangan
2,4,6,8
1/(1-9)
Bahan Baku
Pemasaran
Teknologi
Proses
Bahan Baku
1/1
3/1
Pemasaran
2/1
1/1
4/1
Teknologi Proses
1/3
1/1
1-30
1-31
3.0000
1.7500 8.0000
5.3333
3.0000 14.0000
1.1666
0.6667 3.0000
12.750
12.7500/39.9166 = 0.3194
22.333
22.3333/39.9166 = 0.5595
4.8333
39.9166
1-32
4.8333/39.9166 = 0.1211
1.0000
Iterasi ke II :
Kuadratkan kembali matrik diatas
5.3333 3.000014.000 X
5.3333 3.000014.000
27.6658
15.8330
48.3311
27.6662 126.6642
10.5547
6.0414
72.4984
24.6653
1-33
115.9967
0.3196
202.6615
0.5584
44.2614
0.1210
Jumlah 362.9196
1.0000
0.1210
= - 0.0009
Iterasi ke III :
Bila kita melakukan iterasi satu kali lagi, maka syarat akan terpenuhi
(nilai eigen sudah tidak berbeda sampai 4 desimal)
Jadi nilai eigen yang diperoleh adalah : 0.3196, 0.5584, 0.1220
Apakah makna dari nilai eigen di atas?
Berikut ini adalah matrik berpasangan berserta dengan nilai eigennya:
Bahan
Baku
Pemasaran
Teknologi Proses
Nilai Eigen
Bahan Baku
1.000
0.500
3.000
0.3196
Pemasaran
2.000
1.000
4.000
0.5584
Teknologi Proses
0.333
0.250
1.000
0.1220
Berdasarkan nilai eigen maka kita tahu bahwa kriteria yang paling
penting adalah Pemasaran, kemudian Bahan Baku dan terakhir
Teknologi Proses
1-35
Memilih Komoditi
Agroindustri 1.00
Sasaran
Kriteria
Bahan Baku
0.3196
Pemasaran
0.5584
Teknologi
Proses 0.1220
Minyak
Sawit
Minyak
Sawit
Minyak
Sawit
Cokelat
Cokelat
Cokelat
Karet
Karet
Karet
Teh
Teh
Teh
PEMBOBOTAN
ALTERNATIF
Susunlah matrik berpasangan untuk alternatif-alternatif bagi setiap
kriteria, misalnya untuk kriteria bahan baku adalah :
Bahan Baku
Minyak Sawit
Cokelat
Karet
Teh
Minyak Sawit
1/1
1/4
4/1
1/6
Cokelat
4/1
1/1
4/1
1/4
Karet
1/4
1/4
1/1
1/5
Teh
6/1
4/1
5/1
1/1
1-37
Minyak Sawit
Cokelat
Karet
Teh
Minyak Sawit
1/1
2/1
5/1
1/1
Cokelat
1/2
1/1
3/1
2/1
Karet
1/5
1/3
1/1
1/4
Teh
1/1
1/2
4/1
1/1
1-38
Memilih Komoditi
Agroindustri 1.00
Bahan Baku
0.3196
Pemasaran
0.5584
Teknologi
Proses 0.1220
Minyak Sawit
(0.1160)
Minyak Sawit
(0.3790)
Minyak Sawit
(0.3010)
Cokelat (0.2470)
Cokelat (0.2900)
Cokelat (0.2390)
Karet (0.0600)
Karet (0.0740)
Karet (0.2120)
Teh (0.5700)
Teh (0.2570)
Teh (0.2480)
Dari hasil analisa di atas, maka jawaban dapat kita peroleh dengan
jalan mengalikan matrik nilai eigen dari alternatif dengan matrik bobot
matrik:
Bahan Baku
Pemasaran
Teknologi
Proses
Bobot Kriteria
Minyak Sawit
0.1160
0.3790
0.3010
0.3196
Cokelat
0.2470
0.2900
0.2390
0.5584
Karet
0.0600
0.0740
0.2120
0.1220
Teh
0.5770
0.2570
0.2480
1-40
Hasilnya :
Minyak Sawit : 0.3060
Cokelat
: 0.2720
Karet
: 0.0940
Teh
: 0.3280
: 0.3280
: 0.2720
Karet
: 0.0940
1-41
Minyak Sawit
Cokelat
Karet
Teh
Minyak Sawit
1/1
1/4
4/1
1/6
Cokelat
4/1
1/1
4/1
1/4
Karet
1/4
1/4
1/1
1/5
Teh
6/1
4/1
5/1
1/1
1-42
: 0.1160
Cokelat
: 0.2470
Karet
: 0.0600
Teh
: 0.5770
1/4
4/1
1/6
0.1160
0.5139
4/1
1/1
4/1
1/4
0.2470
1.0953
1/4
1/4
1/1
1/5
6/1
4/1
5/1
1/1
0.0600
0.5770
1-43
0.2662
2.5610
4.4342
=
2.5610 / 0.5770
4.4358
4.4385
Goal
Criteria
Technical
SubCriteria
Ratings
(for each
SubCriterion)
Marketing
Financial
Manufacture
Regulatory Compliance
Development Cost
Prob. of Tech. Success
R&D and Eng. Resources
Development Time
Patent Position
Capability to Market
Market Growth
Market Share
Market Potential
Customer Acceptance
NPV
Capital Invest
ROI
Unit Cost
Capability to Manufacture
Facility/Equp. Req.
Safety
Outstanding
Above Average
Average
Below Average
Outstanding
Above Average
Average
Below Average
Outstanding
Above Average
Average
Below Average
Outstanding
Above Average
Average
Below Average
P1
.....
P2
P99
This approach for R&D project selection has been and is currently being used by a hypothetical firm,
Novatech, Inc., which manufacturers and sells a line of fertilizers.
(see Golden, G.L. (eds), Analytic Hierarchy Process - Applications and studies, 1989, Springer-Verlag. p. 82-99.)
1-45
Focus:
Decision
Criteria:
Financial
Political
Decision
Makers:
Congress
Dept. of Interior
Factors:
Groups
Affected:
Objectives:
Alternatives:
Clout
Legal Position
Farmers
Irrigation
Envt Protection
Courts
Potential
Financial
Loss
Recreationists
Flood Control
State
1-46
Lobbies
Archeological
Problems
Irreversibility
of the Envt
Power Users
Flat Dam
Half-Full Dam
Social Protection
Environmentalists
White Dam
Full Dam
Current
Financial
Resources
Cheap Power
Protect
Environment
Psychological
Communication
& Problem Solving
Family & Children
Temper
Independence
Growth
Physical
Challenge
Commitment
Socio-Cultural
Food
Sociability
Shelter
Finance
Sex
Understanding
Humor
Philosophical
CASE 1:
Marry
Housekeeping
Theology
Sense of Beauty
& Intelligence
Not Marry
Loyalty
CASE 2:
Campbell
Graham
McGuire
1-47
Aesthetic
World View
Security
Affection
Intelligence
Faucet
FOCUS:
TIME HORIZON:
Technology
FORCES:
POLICIES
OBJECTIVES
ACTORS:
Short-Term
Communist
Party
Hard Liners
Mid-Term
Economy
Mikhail
Gorbachev
People of
Russia
Long-Term
International
Affairs
Religion
People of
Baltic
Republics
People of
C. Asia
Republics
People of
Caucacus
Republics
Internal
Politics
Nationalities
Boris
Yeltzin
Western
World
Countries
Insiders
A.1
A.2
A.3
Policies
SCENARIOS:
B.1
B.2
B.3
B.4
B.5
B.6
Policies
C.1
C.2
D.1
D.3
C.3
Policies
Rest of
World
Outsiders
D.2
D.4
E.1
E.2
F.2
F.3
D.5
Policies
F.1
Policies
Power Sharing
(.46)
1-48
Policies
G.1
G.2
G.3
Policies
H.1
H.2
H.3
H.4
H.5
H.6
Policies
Violent Break-up
Civil Wars Terrorism
Brutal Repression
(.20)
I.1
I.2
I.3
I.4
Policies
Yes .80
No .20
Yes .60
No .40
Yes .50
No .50
No 0.271
Yes 0.729
COSTS
$ Billion Tariffs make Chinese products
more expensive (0.094)
Yes .70
No .30
Retaliation
(0.280)
Yes .90
No .10
Yes 0.787
Yes .75
No .25
No 0.213
RISKS
Long Term negative competition
(0.683)
Yes .70
No .30
Yes .30
No .70
Yes 0.597
Result:
Benefits
Costs x Risks
YES
.729
.787 x .597
Yes .50
No .50
No 0.403
= 1.55
1-49
NO
.271
.213 x .403
= 3.16
Arithmetic mean
4+3=7
1/7 1/4 + 1/3 = 7/12
Geometric mean
4 x 3 = 3.46
1/ 4 x 3 = 1/4 x 1/3 = 1/ 4 x 3 = 1/3.46
That the Geometric Mean is the unique way to combine group judgments is a
theorem in mathematics.
1-50
1
-
3
1
5
4
1/7
7
1-51
N (ij) x N
1
N1 (ij) =
1
-
5
1
-
7
4
1
NG (ij) =
1
-
5
1
-
(ij) x x Ne(ij)
N2 (ij) =
1-52
1
-
5
1
-
4
2
1
Level 0 :
Fokus
Nilai
Tukar
Rupiah
10.7 %
Level 1 :
Faktor
Level 2
Tujuan
Level
3
Strategi
Harga Minyak
Dunia
6.4 %
Hutang
Pemerintah
9.9 %
Ketahanan Ekonomi
Nasional
70.6%
Privatisasi
BUMN
13.8 %
Kebijakan
Pemerintah
17.7%
Kepemimpinan
Nasional
22.3 %
Penegakan
Hukum
33 %
Citra danKredibilitas
Internasional
29.4%
Liberalisasi
Perdagangan
19.3 %
1-53
Rekapitalisasi
Perbankan Jilid
Dua
15.8 %
Pemberdayaan
Ekonomi Rakyat /
Sektor Riil
51.1%
Penanggulangan Ledakan
Pengangguran
Pasar
Tenaga
Kerja
14.4 %
Level 1 :
Faktor
Level 2
Tujuan
Level
3
Strategi
Pendidikan &
Keterampilan
Tenaga Kerja
24.3 %
UMR
10.5%
Regulasi
Ketenagakerjaan
& Indag
10.7 %
Pertumbuhan
Ekonomi
39.9 %
Pembangunan
Infrastruktur
28.6 %
Sumberdaya
Alam
10.6 %
Sumberdaya
Finansial
13.9 %
Pemerataan
Sumberdaya Ekonomi
60.1 %
Pemberdayaan
Usaha Mikro &
Kecil
51.3 %
1-54
Investasi
Swasta &
PMA
20.1 %
Penegakan
Hukum
15.6%
PENGEMBANGAN
AGROINDUSTRI
FOKUS
FAKTOR
Sumberdaya
Manusia
(28,79 %)
AKTOR
TUJUAN
ALTERNATIF
Pemerintah
(17,62 %)
Perluasan
Lapangan
Pekerjaan
(20,48 %)
Sumberdaya
Alam
(16,52 %)
Petani
(20,21 %)
Modal
(16,13 %)
Pemasaran
(12,13 %)
Sarana dan
Prasarana
(6,28 %)
Kebijakan
Pemerintah
(20,15 %)
Pengusaha
(16,94 %)
Koperasi
(18,23 %)
Perbankan
(13,00 %)
Pedagang
(13,99 %)
Perluasan
Pasar
(28,09 %)
Peningkatan
Daya Saing
(14,14 %)
1-55
Peningkatan
Pendapatan
(25,44 %)
Pembangunan
Daerah
(11,85 %)
FOKUS
FAKTOR
AKTOR
TUJUAN
STRATEGI
KUALITAS HARAPAN
PELANGGAN
KINERJA KEBUN
SINDER KEBUN
ADMINISTRATUR
PENINGKATAN
HARGA TEH
DIREKSI
KPB
PENINGKATAN
PANGSA PASAR
ISO 9000
TQM
PEMERINTAH
PELANGGAN
HACCP
1-56
PROSES PRODUKSI