Yellow

Fever in
Senegal

Hannah
Isaac

Outline

Disease Background
Model
Comparison with Data
Model Predictions
Conclusions and Further Work

Disease Background

First account of
sickness diagnosed as
YF occurred in 1648

Causative agent:
genus Flavivirus

Vector: Aedes aegypti

(mosquito)

Nonhuman primates
maintain disease

http://www.tel.h
r/publichealth/bolesti/kr
peljni2.htm

http://www.gemsvt.org/middle/gr
ade7/science/resources.htm

http://www.ahajokes.com/cr
t050.html

Cycles of YF
Transmission
Jungle
MOSQUITO

MONKE
Y

MOSQUIT
O

Village
MOSQUIT
O

HUMAN
,

City
MOSQUITO

HUMAN

HUMAN

MONKE
Y
MOSQUIT
O

MOSQUITO
www.who.in

Model Simplifications

Endemic presence of disease

in the jungle

Consider urban outbreak only

Disease brought to city

though movement of
infected humans (initial
condition)
http://www.acgrenoble.fr/irem/sergesimplific
ation.htm

The SEVIR Model

Humans can be in one of five categories at a t

Susceptible

Exposed*

Infective**

Recovered***

Vaccinated

*Virus incubating
**Contagious
***Includes: survivors, victims, Immune

Assumptions

100% transmission

Linear vaccination term, 1 week lag

Pesticides affect the birth rate

continuously

No mosquito larval stage

Homogeneous mixing of people

System of Equations:
Humans
d
dt

SH( t )

TM( t ) SH( t )
NH

v SH( t )

Exposed

VH( t )v SH( t )ve VH( t )

dt
Vaccinated Immune

d
dt

EH( t )

Vaccinated

TM( t ) VH( t )
NH
Exposed

TM( t ) ( SH( t )VH( t ) )

NH
Exposed

EH( t )
Infective

System of Equations:
Humans
d

TH( t ) EH( t )
dt
Infective

RH( t )r TH( t )
dt
Recovered

DDH( t ) TH( t )
dt
Dead

The Mathemagician
http://www.mathsci.appstate.
edu/u/math/sjg/simpsonsmat
h/index.html

System of Equations:
Mosquitoes
d
dt

SM( t )

TH( t ) SM( t )
NH

( ) SM( t )

Exposed

d
dt

EM( t )( ) EM( t )

Birth & Death

TH( t ) SM( t )

Death & Infective

NH

( EM( t )TM( t ) )

Exposed

TM( t ) TM( t ) EM( t )

dt
Death

Infective

Birth

Parameters

Humans:

Population: NH = 800 000

Incubation rate: = 1/12

(people/day)

Death rate: = 0.08/14

(people/day)

Recovery rate: r = 0.92/14

(people/day)

http://www.aclassmedic
ine.org/diet.html

Parameters Contd

Mosquitoes:

Number of Mosquitoes: NM = 100 000 000

Biting rate: = 1/10 (bites/daymosquito)

Birth rate*: = 0.11 (mosquitoes/day)

Death rate: = 0.25 (mosquitoes/day)

Incubation rate: = 1/12 (mosquitoes/day)

*Low due to insecticide use

Cumulative
Cases

Model vs. Data for 2002

Outbreak

Days

The Epidemic Curve

New Cases

Clear peak at
~20 days, no
new
Infections after
100 days

Days

Predictive Power

Parameters can be changed to

make useful predictions:
Changing

control parameters
Varying disease introduction

Without Pesticide

Cumulative
Cases

Controlled
epidemic
(vaccine)
with a
higher
number of
total cases
(~400)

Days

Without Vaccine

Cumulative
Cases

Controlled
epidemic
(pesticide)
with a
higher
number of
total cases
(~450)

Days

Cumulative
Cases

No Controls (pesticide or
vaccine)

Disease is
rampant!

Days

Introduction of Disease
Through
Pre-Contagious Humans

Cumulative
Cases

Vaccine
takes effect
before
contagious
period
begins

Days

Conclusions

Single urban compartment welldescribed by model

Parameter adjustment has realistic

effects

Future models should include

progression through jungle and
village

Thanks to...
Gary, Joanna,
Alex, and all
the other
instructors and
math campers
Math Camp