Oracle Demantra Overview & Utilization in a

Demand Driven Supply Network

Curtis Ardle
February 22, 2008
Emerging Solutions

• Myself
• Emerging Solutions
– Founded 1997
– Headquarter in Chicago
– Office in Minneapolis
– Oracle EBS Practice
– PeopleSoft
– Hyperion
– 100% Reference-able Client List
Agenda

• Demand Driven Supply Chain Network

– What is it?
– Benefits
– Best Practices
• Oracle Demantra
– Demand Driven Adaptive Planning
– Key Capabilities
– Applications w/in Suite
• Conclusion
What is Demand Driven?

• It essentially is a supply chain driven by your customers.

• It means running your company on more real time information.
• Fundamental shift on how to do business.
• Linking supply with demand with products.

SUPPLY DEMAND

PRODUCT
Benefits Recognized

• For Your Company

35%
15% 17% Shorter
Less Stronger Cash to
Inventory Order Cash
Fulfillment

• For Your Shareholders (w/ 10% improvement on perfect orders)

Gain Gain
Gain
5% 2.5%
$.50 EPS
ROA Profits

*AMR Research: Hofman, Debra, “Mastering Supply Chain Excellence”

Best Practices

• Collaborate Internally & Externally

• Use Your Data
• Use Intelligence, not just Algorithms
• Establish and Execute S&OP
• Focus on Process First
Collaborate Internally
and Externally

Marketing

Finance Sales

SCM
Use Your Data

Syndicated Data

National Weather Consumer

Sales History Service Demographics

RFID

POS
VMI
•Promotion response
•Exception handling
•Account for
demographics
•Reduce latency,
dampening
Use Intelligence

Algorithms can never replace intelligence.

Sales & Operations
Planning
 Balance supply and
S&OP Management Meeting demand
 Synchronize all
operational plans

Finance & Budgeting

Marketing / Sales Supply Meeting

Demand Meeting
Meeting -Consensus forecast - Production plan
-Product mix changes -Causal factors -Inventory plan
-Promotions -Supplier collaboration
-Sales quotas
-Customer collaboration
Process Excellence

Systems can increase visibility

Good processes capitalize

on this visibility
What It Means
- Demand Visibility
• Sensing
– Utilize granular data
– Know and utilize causal factors and product
attributes
• Shaping
– Optimize promotion effectiveness
• Response
– Validate business plans
– S&OP to synchronize company
Oracle Demantra
Demand Driven Planning
Forecast-Driven Planning Demand-Driven Planning
Predictive - use formulas
and history to forecast
demand
Uses “buffers” to absorb
demand shocks
Expensive use of working
capital
Demand Sensing: Uses
demand signals to plan and
manage supply
Demand Shaping: Uses
strategies and information to
shape demand
Demand Response: Fulfillment
based on customer requirements
Advanced Planning
Solution

Best in SC Risk Demand Operational

Internal &
Role
Class Driven S & OP External
Management Excellence Based
Network Collaboration
Processes

Network
Design
Demand
Sensing /
Shaping Postponement
Integrated Optimization
Planning Supply Planning

Promise,
Distribute,
Replenish Worksheets,
Workbenches,
Workflow
Demantra Modules

• Demand Management
• Advanced Forecasting and Demand
Modeling
• Real Time Sales & Operations Planning
• Trade Promotion Optimization
• Predictive Trade Planning
• Deduction & Settlement Management
Demand Management

• Core Application • New Product Introduction

• Statistical Forecasting
– 9 Models
– 23 Causal factors
• Attribute Based Forecasting
– Analyze and group by attributes
– Business rules for product level
modeling
• Manage at any Level
– Time
– Product
– Location
• Assumption Planning
– Supports qualitative
forecasting
– Current & past assumptions
modeled
• Shape modeling
– Use comparable products
– Generate and align to
demand
• Editing, Reporting,
Analysis, Collaboration,
Events & Exceptions
Advanced Forecasting
and Demand Modeling
• Statistical Forecasting
– Additional 6 models,
– Unlimited causal factors
• Compute & Display
– Live read-write capability
– Individual causal contribution
– Cross-correlations
• New Product Introduction
• Base & Lift Decomposition
Real-Time S&OP

• Worksheets & Workflows

– Collaborative planning
• Balance Supply & Demand
– All demand in one place
– Plan across orgs with real-time data
• Synchronize
– Assimilate Sales, Finance, Marketing and Supply
Chain
– Ability to monitor variability
– Measure performance and drive accountability
Predictive Trade
Planning
• Define Promotions
• Compute Lift, Halo, & Cannibalization
• Scenario Evaluation
• Promotion Effectiveness Engine
• Base & Lift Decomposition
• Trade Planning Worksheets
Trade Promotion
Optimization
• Optimum Promotions to Maximize ROI
– Measure / Predict Lift, Cannibalization, Pantry
Loading
– Automates promotion analysis
– Run promotion scenarios and recommend best
promotions to run
– Integrates with overall single demand plan
Deduction & Settlement
Management
• Reconcile Deductions and Payments
– Supports key methods
– Smart matching
– Auto matching
• Ease Administrative Burden
What It Means
- Demantra
• Demantra in A Demand Driven Network
– Collaborate Internally & Externally
– Use Your Data
– Use Intelligence, not just Algorithms
– Establish and Execute S&OP
– Focus on Process First
Demand Visibility

Sensing Shaping Responding

Demantra - Demand Driven

•Support Multiple •Bayesian Markov •Bottom Up, Top Down, •Collaboration

Demand Sources Middle Out
•Mixed Model •Exception Handling
•Flexible Data Models Forecasting •Attributes &
•Workflows and
Characteristics
•Granular Visibility •Support Causal Worksheets
Factors •Chaining and Shape
•Support VMI & CPFR
Modeling
•Optimize Promotions
Questions?
Thank You