Changing Demographics and Impact On Health Care

U.S.
Population Aging and

Implications for Health Spending
Mark Mather, Associate Vice President, U.S. Programs, PRB
June 2015
POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org
2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
In the U.S., the Number of People Ages 65 and Older

Will Nearly Double By 2050.
The Age Profile of the U.S. Population Has Shifted,

from the 1970s
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Through the Present (2014)

And Into the Future (2030)

By 2030, More Than One in Five Americans Will Be

Ages 65 and Older.
Percent
NOTE: Percentages for subcategories may not sum to category totals due to rounding
SOURCE: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
The Census Bureau Projects a 10-Fold

Increase in the Number of Centenarians
By 2030, There Will Only Be Three Working-Age

Adults For Every Person Age 65 or Older.
Elderly Support Ratio: Number of persons ages 18-64 per person ages 65+
SOURCE: PRB analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Older Americans Make Up At Least 20 Percent of

the Population of One-Fifth of U.S. Counties.
SOURCE: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2012 Population Estimates.
IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH

AND HEALTH CARE
Social Security and Medicare Expenditures Are

Projected to Reach 12% of GDP by 2050.
More People Are Living with Chronic

Diseases.
Longer life expectancies
Severe disabilities declining with advances in

health care
But many older adults at risk of chronic

diseases and premature death
Often linked to smoking, obesity, alcohol use
Socioeconomic status
Obesity Rates Continue to Increase

Among Older Americans.
Percent obese
Poor Diet, Lack of Exercise Impede Progress

on Reducing Premature Deaths.
Percent of Early Deaths (Before Age 80) by Cause
More People Living With Dementia.
Affects 1-in-4 people over age 80
1-in-3 unpaid caregivers in U.S. helping

someone with dementia.
Providing 6 billion hours of unpaid care each

year
Dementia is the most costly U.S. health

condition ($215 billion per year).
These costs could more than double by

2040.
Changes in Family Patterns May

Result in Fewer Family Caregivers.
High rates of divorce
Increasing cohabitation and nonmarital

childbearing
Lower fertility
Blended families
Households Have Changed Significantly Since

the 1940s.
Percent
NOTE: Percentages for subcategories may not sum to category totals due to rounding.
SOURCE: U.S. Census bureau, Decennial Censuses and American Community Survey.
Among Those Ages 85+, Over Half of Women and

Nearly a Third of Men Live Alone.
Percent
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.

Will Population Aging Affect Health

Care Spending?
Yes
For federal government and many states, local

areas
Current law hard to sustain for entitlement
programs
Rise in number of people with chronic conditions
Growing number of people with dementia
Potential shortage of caregivers and shrinking
social networks
HOWEVER
The U.S. Population is Relatively Young Compared

with Many Other Developed Countries.
Compare the U.S. with Japan

(in 2030).
United States
Japan

Nearly Half of the U.S. Population will be

Racial/Ethnic Minorities by 2030.
Percent of U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity: 1980-2030
SOURCE: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.

But Children are Expected to Pass the

Majority-Minority Threshold Sooner.
Percent of U.S. Population Under age 18 by Race/Ethnicity: 1980-2030
Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.

The Non-Hispanic White Population is Aging Rapidly

as Baby Boomers Reach Retirement Age.
Population by Age and Sex, U.S. White Alone, not Hispanic: 2014
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau.

The Latino Population has a Younger Age Structure

Because of Higher Fertility and Past Immigration.
Population by Age and Sex, U.S. Hispanic or Latino: 2014
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau.

Both Older Men and Older Women are

Working More.
More Adults Ages 55+ Have Completed

College.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.

More Men Are Surviving to Old Age.

Number of men per 100 women
More Options for Older Adults to

Maintain Their Independence
Residential options
Nursing facilities
Assisted Living
Home health care
Adult day care
Adaptations to help maintain

independence
Assistive devices
Home modifications
Does U.S. Population Aging Really

Matter?
No
U.S. is young, relative to Europe

Population aging is selective, affecting some
groups more than others
Baby boomers can cope better than previous
generations
Better educated, working longer

Mens life expectancy improving relative to women
More options to remain independent

Major Demographic Changes are

Underway
Aging baby boomers
Changes in family structure
More racial/ethnic minorities
Juxtaposition of older boomers (mostly white)

and children/young adults who are
increasingly Latino, Asian, multiracial
Demographic Opportunities
Future elderly will be better educated
Labor force participation among those 65+

has increased and could help to offset
declining elderly support ratio
Increasing the future productive capacity of

todays youth can help to offset costs of an
aging society
Thank You!
Mark Mather
202-939-5433
mmather@prb.org

Changing Demographics and Impact On Health Care

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Оригинальное название

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Changing Demographics and Impact On Health Care

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

U.S.

Population Aging and

Mark Mather, Associate Vice President, U.S. Programs, PRB

POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org

2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

In the U.S., the Number of People Ages 65 and Older

2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

The Age Profile of the U.S. Population Has Shifted,

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Through the Present (2014)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

And Into the Future (2030)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

By 2030, More Than One in Five Americans Will Be

The Census Bureau Projects a 10-Fold

2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

By 2030, There Will Only Be Three Working-Age

SOURCE: PRB analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Older Americans Make Up At Least 20 Percent of

IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH

2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

Social Security and Medicare Expenditures Are

2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

More People Are Living with Chronic

Longer life expectancies

Severe disabilities declining with advances in

But many older adults at risk of chronic

Often linked to smoking, obesity, alcohol use

2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

Obesity Rates Continue to Increase

2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

Poor Diet, Lack of Exercise Impede Progress

2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

More People Living With Dementia.

Affects 1-in-4 people over age 80

1-in-3 unpaid caregivers in U.S. helping

Providing 6 billion hours of unpaid care each

Dementia is the most costly U.S. health

These costs could more than double by

Changes in Family Patterns May

High rates of divorce

Increasing cohabitation and nonmarital

2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

Households Have Changed Significantly Since

Among Those Ages 85+, Over Half of Women and

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.

Will Population Aging Affect Health

For federal government and many states, local

2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

The U.S. Population is Relatively Young Compared

2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

Compare the U.S. with Japan

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Nearly Half of the U.S. Population will be

SOURCE: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.

But Children are Expected to Pass the

Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.

The Non-Hispanic White Population is Aging Rapidly

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau.

The Latino Population has a Younger Age Structure

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau.

Both Older Men and Older Women are

2015 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org