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# 1

PROJECT SCHEDULING
Fourth year
Production Engineering Dept.
Prepared by: Reem AlKadeem

CPM calculation
2

Path

Critical Path

## A connected sequence of activities leading

from the starting event to the ending event
The longest path (time); determines the
project duration

Critical Activities

path

Forward Pass
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## Earliest Start Time (ES)

earliest time an activity can start
ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors
Earliest finish time (EF)
earliest time an activity can finish
earliest start time plus activity time
Backward
Pass
EF= ES +
t

## Latest Start Time (LS)

Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time
LS= LF - t
Latest finish time (LF)
latest time an activity can be completed without delaying critical path time
LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors

CPM analysis

## Draw the CPM network

Analyze the paths through the network
Determine the float for each activity
Compute the activitys float
float = LS - ES = LF - EF
Float is the maximum amount of time that this activity
can be delayed in its completion before it becomes a
critical activity, i.e., delays completion of the project
Find the critical path is that the sequence of activities
and events where there is no slack i.e.. Zero slack
Longest path through a network
Find the project duration is minimum project completion
time

CPM Example:
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CPM Network

f,f, 15
15
h,
h, 99

g,
g, 17
17

a,
a, 66

i,i, 66
b,
b, 88
d,
d, 13
13
c,
c, 55
e,
e, 99

j,j, 12
12

CPM Example
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f,f, 15
15

ES and EF Times
a,
a, 66
0

h,
h, 99

g,
g, 17
17
i,i, 66

6
b,
b, 88
0

d,
d, 13
13

c,
c, 55
0

e,
e, 99

j,j, 12
12

CPM Example
7

ES and EF Times

f,f, 15
15
6

h,
h, 99

g,
g, 17
17

a,
a, 66
0

21

23

i,i, 66

b,
b, 88
0

d,
d, 13
13

c,
c, 55
0

21

e,
e, 99
5

14

j,j, 12
12

CPM Example
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f,f, 15
15

ES and EF Times

h,
h, 99

g,
g, 17
17

a,
a, 66
0

21

23

21 30

i,i, 66
23

29

b,
b, 88
0

d,
d, 13
13

c,
c, 55
0

21

e,
e, 99
5

14

j,j, 12
12
21 33

Projects EF = 33

CPM Example
9

f,f, 15
15

LS and LF Times

a,
a, 66
0

21

d,
d, 13
13

21

c,
c, 55
5

e,
e, 99
5

24 33

i,i, 66

23

b,
b, 88

21 30

g,
g, 17
17

h,
h, 99

14

23

29

27

33
j,j, 12
12
21

33

21

33

CPM
CPM Example
Example
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LS and LF Times

f,f, 15
15
6

21

h,
h, 99

18 24
a,
a, 66

21 30

g,
g, 17
17

10

10 27

b,
b, 88
0

d,
d, 13
13

c,
c, 55
0

12

24 33

i,i, 66

23

21

21

e,
e, 99
5

14

12

21

23

29

27

33
j,j, 12
12
21

33

21

33

CPM
CPM Example
Example

Float

f,f, 15
15

11

3
a,
a, 66
3

21

24
g,
g, 17
17

i,i, 66

10 27

d,
d, 13
13
0

c,
c, 55
7

12

21

21

e,
e, 99
7

23

b,
b, 88
0

h,
h, 99

14

12

21

23

29

27

33

21 30
24 33

j,j, 12
12
0

21

33

21

33

CPM Example
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f,f, 15
15

Critical Path

h,
h, 99

g,
g, 17
17

a,
a, 66

i,i, 66
b,
b, 88
d,
d, 13
13
c,
c, 55
e,
e, 99

j,j, 12
12

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Project Evaluation
Technique PERT

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PERT

## PERT is based on the assumption that an activitys

duration follows a probability distribution instead of
being a single value
Three time estimates are required to compute the
parameters of an activitys duration distribution:
pessimistic time (tp ) - the time the activity would
take if things did not go well
most likely time (tm ) - the consensus best
estimate of the activitys duration
optimistic time (to ) - the time the activity would
take if things did go well

## Expected time calculation

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tp + 4 tm + to
Mean (expected time): te =
6
2
t - t
p
o
Variance: V =2 =
t
6

PERT analysis
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1.
2.

3.

4.

5.

## Draw the network.

Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical
path.
The length of the critical path is the mean of the project
duration probability distribution which is assumed to be normal
The standard deviation of the project duration probability
distribution is computed by adding the variances of the critical
activities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) and
taking the square root of that sum
Probability computations can now be made using the normal
distribution table.

Probability computation
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## Determine probability that project is

x - time
completed within specified
Z=

## where = tp = project mean time

= project standard mean time
x = (proposed ) specified time

Time
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Probability

= tp

Time

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Estimates
1.

2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

## Estimates obtained from simple

regression
Furnished by experienced person
Heuristic assumptions
Dictated by customer requirements
Extracted from standard time data
Obtained from historical data
Generated by simulation

PERT Example

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## Immed. Optimistic Most Likely

Pessimistic
Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.)
Time (Hr.)
A
-4
6
8
B
-1
4.5
5
C
A
3
3
3
D
A
4
5
6
E
A
0.5
1
1.5
F
B,C
3
4

PERT Example
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PERT Network
D

C
B

F
G

PERT Example
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Activity
Variance
A

Expected Time
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B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I

4
3
5
1
4
2
6
5
J

3
5

4/9
4/9
0
1/9
1/36
1/9
4/9
1/9
1
1/9
4/9

PERT Example
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Activity

ES

6
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K

EF
0

LS

LF

Slack

0 *critical
0
4
5
9
6
9
6
9
6
11
15
20
9
6
7
12
13
6
9
13
9
13
9
11
16
18
7
13
19
14
20
1
13
18
13
18
0
19
22
20
23
1
18
23
18
23
0*

5
0*

0*

PERT Example
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Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK

path

= 2
= 1.414

## z = (24 - 23)/(24-23)/1.414 = .71

From the Standard Normal Distribution
table:
P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612

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1.

## Completion time? What are the risks involved?

2.

Critical activities

3.

4.

## Is the project on schedule, behind schedule or

ahead of schedule?
If the project has to be finished earlier than
planned, what is the best way to do this at the
least cost?

Limitations to CPM/PERT
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1.
2.
3.

4.

5.

## Over emphasis on critical paths

Deterministic CPM model
Activity time estimates are subjective and depend
on judgment
PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time
estimates, but the actual distribution may be
different
PERT consistently underestimates the expected
project completion time due to alternate paths
becoming critical

## To overcome the limitation, Monte Carlo simulations can be performed

on the network to eliminate the optimistic bias

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1.
2.

3.

4.

5.

## It uses the same data input as PERT

Then it will draw a set of durations for
all activities from its statistical
distribution
Then the network is calculated as the
usual CPM
The procedure is repeated a large
number of times
This answers the question of what is the
probability of meeting a milestone.

Critical index
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Simulation

## Critical Index: the probability of an

activity to be critical the number of
times the activity will be in the critical
path

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Resource Constraints

Resource Constraints
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ways:
1.
2.
3.

## To determine the duration of an activity

As a trade-off between time and cost
As a limited resource during scheduling

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## It the activity is labor

intensive, it is
common to apply a
build up and rundown
period to and from
peak manning
This referred to as
mobilization and
demobilization.
Realizing that the
area of trapezoid
equals the work
scope, t, can be
calculated

Activity Duration
Calculation

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## S c.P max(tm td 2.tp / 2)

t = activity duration

## tp = time with peak manning level

td = demobilization time

## Pmax = peak manning level

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PROJECT COST

Cost consideration in
project

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## Project managers may have the option or

requirement to crash the project, or
accelerate the completion of the project.

## This is accomplished by reducing the length

of the critical path(s).

## The length of the critical path is reduced by

reducing the duration of the activities on the
critical path.

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Cost consideration in
project

## If each activity requires the expenditure of an amount

of money to reduce its duration by one unit of time,
then the project manager selects the least cost critical
activity, reduces it by one time unit, and traces that
change through the remainder of the network.

## As a result of a reduction in an activitys time, a new

critical path may be created.

## When there is more than one critical path, each of the

critical paths must be reduced.

## If the length of the project needs to be reduced further,

the process is repeated.

Project Crashing
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Crashing
reducing project time by expending additional
resources
Crash time
an amount of time an activity is reduced
Crash cost
cost of reducing activity time
Goal
reduce project duration at minimum cost

Activity crashing
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Activity cost

Crash
cost

Crashing activity
Slope = crash cost per unit time (cost
gradient)
Normal Activity

Normal
cost

Normal
time
Crash
time

Activity time

## Cost gradient calculation

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c = ( cD - cd )/ d - D
c is the cost gradient
cd is normal cost
cD is the crash cost
d is the normal duration
D is the crash duration

Time-Cost Relationship
Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases
Indirect costs increase as project duration increases
Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect
costs

Time-Cost Tradeoff
Min total cost =
optimal project
time

cost

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Indirect cost

Crash cost

time

Example
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Activity

0-1
1-2
1-3
1-6
2-4
3-5
3-6
4-5
5-6
5-7
6-8
7-8

Normal time
Tn
(Days)
10
20
40
28
8
0
10
30
20
24
10
12

cost Cn
(LE)
200
200
1800
500
150
0
100
3000
2800
1000
200
400

Crash time
Tc
(Days)
5
10
30
20
8
0
6
10
8
14
6
8

Crash cost
Cc
(LE)
300
300
2700
580
150
0
260
6600
3400
1650
520
520

Gradient

100/5=20
100/10=10
900/10=90
80/8=10
--160/4=40
3600/20=180
600/12= 50
650/10= 65
320/4= 80
120/4= 30

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2
8

12

7
4

12

3
4

5
4

6
4

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## Activity Normal Normal Crash Crash Allowable slope

time
cost Rs time cost Rs crash time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

12
8
4
12
4
4
4

3000
2000
4000
50000
500
500
1500
75000

7
5
3
9
1
1
3

5000
3500
7000
71000
1100
1100
22000
110700

5
3
1
3
3
3
1

400
500
3000
7000
200
200
7000

R500

R7000

2
8

12

R700
7
4

12

R400

3
4

To..
Project
duration = 31
Additional cost =
R2000
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Project duration = 36

6
4

5
4

R3000

From..

R200

R200

R500

R7000

2
8

12

R700
7
4

R400

3
4
R3000

5
4
R200

6
4
R200

Practice Example
A social project manager is faced with a project with the following
activities:
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Activity Description

Duration

5w

12w

5w

14w

15w

4w

## Draw network diagram and show the critical path. Calculate

project duration.