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Original Title: Project Management basics

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You are on page 1of 43

Path

Critical Path

from the starting event to the ending event

The longest path (time); determines the

project duration

Critical Activities

path

Forward Pass

2

earliest time an activity can start

ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors

Earliest finish time (EF)

earliest time an activity can finish

earliest start time plus activity time

Backward

Pass

EF= ES +

t

Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time

LS= LF - t

Latest finish time (LF)

latest time an activity can be completed without delaying critical path time

LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors

CPM analysis

Analyze the paths through the network

Determine the float for each activity

Compute the activitys float

float = LS - ES = LF - EF

Float is the maximum amount of time that this activity

can be delayed in its completion before it becomes a

critical activity, i.e., delays completion of the project

Find the critical path is that the sequence of activities

and events where there is no slack i.e.. Zero slack

Longest path through a network

Find the project duration is minimum project completion

time

CPM Example:

4

CPM Network

f,f, 15

15

h,

h, 99

g,

g, 17

17

a,

a, 66

i,i, 66

b,

b, 88

d,

d, 13

13

c,

c, 55

e,

e, 99

j,j, 12

12

CPM Example

5

f,f, 15

15

ES and EF Times

a,

a, 66

0

h,

h, 99

g,

g, 17

17

i,i, 66

6

b,

b, 88

0

d,

d, 13

13

c,

c, 55

0

e,

e, 99

j,j, 12

12

CPM Example

6

ES and EF Times

f,f, 15

15

6

h,

h, 99

g,

g, 17

17

a,

a, 66

0

21

23

i,i, 66

b,

b, 88

0

d,

d, 13

13

c,

c, 55

0

21

e,

e, 99

5

14

j,j, 12

12

CPM Example

7

f,f, 15

15

ES and EF Times

h,

h, 99

g,

g, 17

17

a,

a, 66

0

21

23

21 30

i,i, 66

23

29

b,

b, 88

0

d,

d, 13

13

c,

c, 55

0

21

e,

e, 99

5

14

j,j, 12

12

21 33

Projects EF = 33

CPM Example

8

f,f, 15

15

LS and LF Times

a,

a, 66

0

21

d,

d, 13

13

21

c,

c, 55

5

e,

e, 99

5

24 33

i,i, 66

23

b,

b, 88

21 30

g,

g, 17

17

h,

h, 99

14

23

29

27

33

j,j, 12

12

21

33

21

33

CPM

CPM Example

Example

9

LS and LF Times

f,f, 15

15

6

21

h,

h, 99

18 24

a,

a, 66

21 30

g,

g, 17

17

10

10 27

b,

b, 88

0

d,

d, 13

13

c,

c, 55

0

12

24 33

i,i, 66

23

21

21

e,

e, 99

5

14

12

21

23

29

27

33

j,j, 12

12

21

33

21

33

CPM

CPM Example

Example

Float

f,f, 15

15

10

3

a,

a, 66

3

21

24

g,

g, 17

17

i,i, 66

10 27

d,

d, 13

13

0

c,

c, 55

7

12

21

21

e,

e, 99

7

23

b,

b, 88

0

h,

h, 99

14

12

21

23

29

27

33

21 30

24 33

j,j, 12

12

0

21

33

21

33

CPM Example

11

f,f, 15

15

Critical Path

h,

h, 99

g,

g, 17

17

a,

a, 66

i,i, 66

b,

b, 88

d,

d, 13

13

c,

c, 55

e,

e, 99

j,j, 12

12

12

Project Evaluation

Technique PERT

13

PERT

duration follows a probability distribution instead of

being a single value

Three time estimates are required to compute the

parameters of an activitys duration distribution:

pessimistic time (tp ) - the time the activity would

take if things did not go well

most likely time (tm ) - the consensus best

estimate of the activitys duration

optimistic time (to ) - the time the activity would

take if things did go well

14

Variance: Vt =2 =

tp + 4 tm + to

6

tp - to

6

PERT analysis

15

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical

path.

The length of the critical path is the mean of the project

duration probability distribution which is assumed to be normal

The standard deviation of the project duration probability

distribution is computed by adding the variances of the critical

activities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) and

taking the square root of that sum

Probability computations can now be made using the normal

distribution table.

Probability computation

16

x - time

completed within specified

Z=

= project standard mean time

x = (proposed ) specified time

Time

17

Probability

= tp

Time

18

Estimates

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

regression

Furnished by experienced person

Heuristic assumptions

Dictated by customer requirements

Extracted from standard time data

Obtained from historical data

Generated by simulation

PERT Example

19

Pessimistic

Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.)

Time (Hr.)

A

-4

6

8

B

-1

4.5

5

C

A

3

3

3

D

A

4

5

6

E

A

0.5

1

1.5

F

B,C

3

4

PERT Example

20

PERT Network

D

C

B

F

G

PERT Example

21

Activity

Variance

A

Expected Time

6

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

4

3

5

1

4

2

6

5

J

3

5

4/9

4/9

0

1/9

1/36

1/9

4/9

1/9

1

1/9

4/9

PERT Example

22

Activity

ES

6

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

EF

0

LS

LF

Slack

0 *critical

0

4

5

9

6

9

6

9

6

11

15

20

9

6

7

12

13

6

9

13

9

13

9

11

16

18

7

13

19

14

20

1

13

18

13

18

0

19

22

20

23

1

18

23

18

23

0*

5

0*

0*

PERT Example

23

Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK

path

= 2

= 1.414

From the Standard Normal Distribution

table:

P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612

24

1.

2.

Critical activities

3.

4.

ahead of schedule?

If the project has to be finished earlier than

planned, what is the best way to do this at the

least cost?

Limitations to CPM/PERT

25

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Deterministic CPM model

Activity time estimates are subjective and depend

on judgment

PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time

estimates, but the actual distribution may be

different

PERT consistently underestimates the expected

project completion time due to alternate paths

becoming critical

on the network to eliminate the optimistic bias

26

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Then it will draw a set of durations for

all activities from its statistical

distribution

Then the network is calculated as the

usual CPM

The procedure is repeated a large

number of times

This answers the question of what is the

probability of meeting a milestone.

Critical index

27

Simulation

activity to be critical the number of

times the activity will be in the critical

path

28

Resource Constraints

Resource Constraints

29

ways:

1.

2.

3.

As a trade-off between time and cost

As a limited resource during scheduling

30

intensive, it is

common to apply a

build up and rundown

period to and from

peak manning

This referred to as

mobilization and

demobilization.

Realizing that the

area of trapezoid

equals the work

scope, t, can be

calculated

Activity Duration

Calculation

31

t = activity duration

td = demobilization time

32

PROJECT COST

Cost consideration in

project

33

requirement to crash the project, or

accelerate the completion of the project.

of the critical path(s).

reducing the duration of the activities on the

critical path.

34

Cost consideration in

project

of money to reduce its duration by one unit of time,

then the project manager selects the least cost critical

activity, reduces it by one time unit, and traces that

change through the remainder of the network.

critical path may be created.

critical paths must be reduced.

the process is repeated.

Project Crashing

35

Crashing

reducing project time by expending additional

resources

Crash time

an amount of time an activity is reduced

Crash cost

cost of reducing activity time

Goal

reduce project duration at minimum cost

Activity crashing

36

Activity cost

Crash

cost

Crashing activity

Slope = crash cost per unit time (cost

gradient)

Normal Activity

Normal

cost

Normal

time

Crash

time

Activity time

37

c = ( cD - cd )/ d - D

c is the cost gradient

cd is normal cost

cD is the crash cost

d is the normal duration

D is the crash duration

Time-Cost Relationship

Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases

Indirect costs increase as project duration increases

Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect

costs

Time-Cost Tradeoff

Min total cost =

optimal project

time

cost

38

Indirect cost

Crash cost

time

Example

39

Activity

0-1

1-2

1-3

1-6

2-4

3-5

3-6

4-5

5-6

5-7

6-8

7-8

Normal time

Tn

(Days)

10

20

40

28

8

0

10

30

20

24

10

12

cost Cn

(LE)

200

200

1800

500

150

0

100

3000

2800

1000

200

400

Crash time

Tc

(Days)

5

10

30

20

8

0

6

10

8

14

6

8

Crash cost

Cc

(LE)

300

300

2700

580

150

0

260

6600

3400

1650

520

520

Gradient

100/5=20

100/10=10

900/10=90

80/8=10

--160/4=40

3600/20=180

600/12= 50

650/10= 65

320/4= 80

120/4= 30

40

2

8

12

7

4

12

3

4

5

4

6

4

41

time

cost Rs time cost Rs crash time

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

12

8

4

12

4

4

4

3000

2000

4000

50000

500

500

1500

75000

7

5

3

9

1

1

3

5000

3500

7000

71000

1100

1100

22000

110700

5

3

1

3

3

3

1

400

500

3000

7000

200

200

7000

R500

R7000

2

8

12

R700

7

4

12

R400

3

4

To..

Project

duration = 31

Additional cost =

R2000

42

Project duration = 36

6

4

5

4

R3000

From..

R200

R200

R500

R7000

2

8

12

R700

7

4

R400

3

4

R3000

5

4

R200

6

4

R200

Practice Example

A social project manager is faced with a project with the following

activities:

44

Activity Description

Duration

5w

12w

5w

14w

15w

4w

project duration.

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