CONDITIONAL

PROBABILITY

Conditional Probability
The probability that an event B
occurring when it is known that
some event A has occurred is
called a conditional probability
and is denoted by P(B/A).

Conditional Probability
Definition:
The conditional probability of B, given
A, denoted by P(B/A), is defined by
the equation

P( A B )
,if
P(B/A) =
P( A )

P( A ) 0

Conditional Probability
Example1:
A math teacher gave her class two
tests. 25% of the class passed both
tests and 42% of the class passed the
first test. What percent of those who
passed the first test also passed the
second test?

Conditional Probability
Example 2:
A jar contains black and white marbles. Two
marbles are chosen without replacement.
The probability of selecting a black
marble and then a white marble is 0.34,
and the probability of selecting a black
marble on the first draw is 0.47. What is
the probability of selecting a white
marble on the second draw, given that the
first marble drawn was black?

Conditional Probability
Example 3:
The probability that it is Friday and
that a student is absent is 0.03.
Since there are 5 school days in a
week, the probability that it is
Friday is 0.2. What is the probability
that a student is absent given that
today is Friday?

Conditional Probability
Example 4.
Consider the data of these two groups of
employees of their plans after 65 yrs
old,
Employee
Retire
Management 5
15
Production
30 50

Not retire

Conditional Probability
If one person will be selected,
a) What is the probability that the person
selected is a production employee given
that he will retire after the age of 65?
b) What is the probability that the person
selected is not retiring given that he
belongs to the management?

Conditional Probability
Note:
If n(M) denote the number of
elements in event M, then
n( E M ) n( E M ) / n( ) P( E M )

P(M/E)=
n( E )
n( E ) / n( )
P( E )

Conditional Probability
Definition:
If in an experiment the event A and B can
both occur , then

P( A B ) P( A )P( B / A )

Conditional Probability
Example1:

There are 10 rolls of film in a box, and

3 are defective. Two rolls are to be
selected, one after the other. What
is the probability of selecting a
defective roll followed by another
defective roll?

Conditional Probability
Example 2:
A board of directors consists of eight
men and four women. A four member
search committee is to be chosen at
random to recommend a new company
president? What is the probability that
all four members of the search
committee are women? Are men?

Conditional Probability
Definition:

The events A and B are

independent if and only if

P( A B ) P( A )P( B )

Conditional Probability
Example 1:
Two coins are tossed. Want is the
probability that both will land tail
up?

Conditional Probability
Example 2.
A pair of dice is thrown twice.
What is the probability of getting
a total of 5 and 7?

Bayes Rule
Let B1,B2,B3,...,Bk
be a set of events
forming a partition of the sample
space , where

P(Bi) 0, for i = 1, 2, , n. Let A be

any event of such that P(A) 0 .
Then , for k = 1, 2,3,n
P( Bk A )
P( Bk / A )
P( B1 A ) P( B2 A ) ... P( Bn A )

Bayes Rule

Example1:

Three different machines M1, M2, and M3

were used for producing a large batch of
similar manufactured items. Suppose that
20% of the items were produced by machine
M1, 30% by M2 and 50% by M3. Suppose that
in M1 1% is defective, 2% in M2 and 3% in
M3.

Bayes Rule
Suppose one item is selected at

random and found to be

defective. Find the probability
that the item is produced by M2.