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ECONOMICS
ELEVENTH EDITION
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The Determination of
Aggregate Output,
the Price Level, and
the Interest Rate
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C H APT E R O U T LI N E
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aggregate supply The total supply of all goods and services in an economy.
aggregate supply (AS) curve A graph that shows the relationship between
the aggregate quantity of output supplied by all firms in an economy and the
overall price level.
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Wages are a large fraction of total costs and wage changes lag behind price
changes. This gives us an upward sloping short-run AS curve.
Consider the vertical portion of the AS curve. At some level the overall economy
is using all its capital and all the labor that wants to work at the market wage. At
this level (), increased demand for labor and output can be met only by
increased prices. Neither wages nor prices are likely to be sticky.
At low levels of output, the AS curve is flatter. Small price increases may be
associated with relatively large output responses. We may observe relatively
sticky wages upward at this point on the AS curve.
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The vertical part of the short-run AS curve represents the economys maximum
(capacity) output, which is determined by the economys existing resources,
like the size of its labor force, capital stock, and the current state of technology.
New discoveries of oil or problems in the production of energy can also shift the
AS curve through effects on the marginal cost of production in many parts of
the economy.
cost shock, or supply shock A change in costs that shifts the short-run
aggregate supply (AS) curve.
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AE C + I + G
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FIGURE 27.3 The Effect of an Interest Rate Increase on Planned Aggregate Expenditure and
Equilibrium Output
An increase in the interest rate from 3 percent to 6 percent lowers planned aggregate
expenditure and thus reduces equilibrium output from Y0 to Y1.
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The effects of a change in the interest rate on the equilibrium level of output in
the goods market include:
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r I AE Y
r I AE Y
IS curve Relationship between aggregate output and the interest rate in the
goods market.
With the interest rate fixed, an increase in government spending (G) increases
AE and thus Y in equilibrium.
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An increase in
government
spending (G) with
the interest rate
fixed increases
output (Y),
which is a shift
of the IS curve
to the right.
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As the Fed thinks about its interest rate setting, it considers factors other than
current output and inflation, such as levels of consumer confidence, possible
fragility of the domestic banking sector, and possible financial problems abroad.
For our purposes we will label all these factors (except output and inflation) as
Z factors, which lie outside our model and are likely to vary from period to
period in ways that are hard to predict.
Fed rule Equation that shows how the Feds interest rate decision depends on
the state of the economy.
r Y P Z
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E C O N O M I C S I N PR AC T I C E
What Does Ben Bernanke Really Care About?
As the economy sputtered along in late 2012 and early 2013, a number of
newspaper articles began to appear focusing on what Ben Bernanke really
cared about.
One article was titled Does Ben Bernanke Care Too Much About Jobs? while
another journalist opined Ben Bernanke Doesnt Care about the Price of Your
Hamburger.
At this point you should see that these colorful headlines are just asking what
are the variables in the Fed rule!
THINKING PRACTICALLY
THINKING PRACTICALLY
1.In his research work while a professor at Princeton, Bernanke emphasized the dangers
1.In his research work while a professor at Princeton, Bernanke emphasized the dangers
of inflation. As Fed Chair, he has spent more time worrying about output.
of inflation. As Fed Chair, he has spent more time worrying about output.
Why is this? (Hint: go back and look at the data graphs.)
Why is this? (Hint: go back and look at the data graphs.)
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Because many prices rise together when the overall price level rises, we cannot
use the ceteris paribus assumption to draw the AD curve.
The logic that explains why a simple demand curve slopes downward fails to
explain why the AD curve also has a negative slope.
Aggregate demand falls when the price level increases because the higher
price level leads the Fed to raise the interest rate, which decreases planned
investment and thus aggregate output.
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The AD curve is
derived from
Figure 27.7.
Each point on the
AD curve is an
equilibrium point
in Figure 27.7 for
a given value of P.
When P increases,
the Fed raises the
interest rate (the Fed
rule in Figure 27.7
shifts to the left),
which has a
negative effect on
planned investment
and thus on Y.
The AD curve
reflects this
negative
relationship
between P and Y.
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The AD curve slopes down in our analysis because the Fed raises the interest
rate when P increases and because planned investment depends negatively on
the interest rate.
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Potential GDP
Recall that even the short-run AS curve becomes vertical at some particular
level of output.
The vertical portion of the short-run AS curve exists because there are physical
limits to the amount that an economy can produce in any given time period.
potential output, or potential GDP The level of aggregate output that can be
sustained in the long run without inflation.
Short-Run Equilibrium Below Potential Output
Although different economists have different opinions on how to determine
whether an economy is operating at or above potential output, there is general
agreement that there is a maximum level of output (below the vertical portion of
the short-run aggregate supply curve) that can be sustained without inflation.
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E C O N O M I C S I N PR AC T I C E
The Simple Keynesian Aggregate Supply Curve
With planned aggregate expenditure of AE1
and aggregate demand of AD1, equilibrium
output is Y1.
A shift of planned aggregate expenditure to
AE2, corresponding to a shift of the AD
curve to AD2, causes output to rise but the
price level to remain at P1.
If planned aggregate expenditure and
aggregate demand exceed YF, however,
there is an inflationary gap and the price
level rises to P3.
THINKING PRACTICALLY
THINKING PRACTICALLY
1.Why is the distance between AE3 and AE2 called
1.Why is the distance between AE3 and AE2 called
an inflationary gap?
an inflationary gap?
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R E V I E W TE R M S AN D C O N C E PTS
aggregate supply
aggregate supply (AS) curve
cost shock, or supply shock
Fed rule
IS curve
potential output, or potential GDP
real wealth effect
Equations:
AE C + I + G
r Y P Z
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