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PROGRAMME 29
PROBABILITY
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In the random experiment of tossing a coin that has a head on both sides
a double-headed coin the event H is a certain event and we define the
probability of a certain event as unity:
P(H) = P(Certainty) = 1
The event T is impossible. We define the probability of an impossible event
as zero:
P(T) = P(Impossibility) = 0
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Let A and B be two events associated with a random experiment. These two
events can be connected using or to form the event
C: C = A or B
In other words either event A occurs or event B occurs or both. This is an
inclusive or because it permits both events to occur simultaneously. If A
and B are mutually exclusive they contain no outcomes in common, in
which case
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
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If events A and B have outcomes that are common to both then because or
is inclusive, when we add together outcomes that are in either A or B we
add in twice those outcomes that are in both. Therefore we must subtract
once those that are in both. Therefore:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(both A and B)
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If two random experiments are performed in sequence, one after the other,
then it may be possible for the outcome of the first experiment to affect the
outcome of the second experiment. If this is the case then the outcomes are
dependent upon each other and the probabilities change after the first
experiment has been performed.
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Here, the average value of the random variable is called the expectation of x,
denoted by E(x). That is:
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The spread of the values of the random variable about the mean (the
expectation) is given as the expectation of the square of the deviations from
the mean (the variance). That is
2 E x
n
xr P(xr )
2
r1
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A Bernoulli trial is any random experiment whose result has only two
outcomes which we shall call success with probability p and failure with
probability q.
P(success) = p and P(failure) = q where p + q = 1
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n!
(n r)!r!
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np
The standard deviation of a binomial probability distribution is given
as:
npq
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r e
P(r)
r!
with mean and variance both equal to (so standard deviation is ). Here
is the average number of occurrences during a fixed period of time and r is a
positive integer.
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1
12 ( x )2 / 2
y
e
2
Where = mean and = standard
deviation of the distribution.
This equation is not at all easy to deal
with. In practice, it is convenient to
convert a normal distribution into a
standardized normal distribution having a
mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.
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This moves the distribution curve along the x-axis and reduces the scale of
the horizontal units by dividing by . To keep the total area under the curve
at unity, we multiply the y-values by . The equation of the standardized
normal curve then becomes:
1 z2 /2
y (z)
e
2
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1 z2 /2
y (z)
e
2
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