Chuong 2 - Mo Hinh Is - LM Va Tong Cau Trong Nen KT Dong

KINH T V M II
CHNG II:
M HNH IS LM V
TNG CU TRONG NN KT NG
CHNG II: M HNH IS LM V

M hnh IS LM (Investment/Saving - Liquidity
Preference/Money Supply) c bit n nh l m
hnh Hicks Hansen, c nh KT hc John Hicks
(1904 1989) v nh KT hc ca M l Alvin
Hansen (1887 1975) a ra v pht trin trong
nhng nm 1930 nhm gii thch tc phm c nh
hng ln ca Keynes L thuyt chung v vic lm,
li sut v tin t.
29/11/2010
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

M hnh IS LM coi nn KT bao gm 2 th
trng: th trng hng ha v th trng tin t.
im quan trng trong MH ny l chng ta
khng th phn tch ring r tng th trng, bi
v gia cc th trng c s tng tc ln nhau.
29/11/2010

Gi nh:
Mc gi chung khng i
Nn KT cn nhiu ngun lc cha c s

dng ht, tc l tng cung lun p ng tng
cu. Trong bi cnh ,
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I. Th trng hng ha v ng IS
1. M hnh giao im Keynes
Cng c chnh xy dng ng IS l m
hnh giao im Keynes.
Trong nn kinh t ng gin n ta c tng chi
tiu d kin (Aggregate Planned Expenditure:
APE/AE) ca nn KT l:
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Trong :
C
I
G
T
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Trc ht, gi s rng li sut c nh mc:
rr
Mc T theo k hoch I (r) cng l ngoi sinh:
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Khi :
APE = C + I +G
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Nn KT t trng thi cn bng khi:
Tc l:
29/11/2010
APE = Y

APE
Y
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10
2. M hnh ng IS
a. Khi nim
ng IS l tp hp tt c nhng im biu th mi
quan h gia li sut v SL cn bng tha mn iu
kin th trng hng ha cn bng (APE = Y).
b. Cch xy dng ng IS
xy dng ng IS, chng ta nghin cu mi
quan h gia li sut (biu hin ca th trng tin
t) v tng chi tiu d kin (biu hin ca th trng
hng ha)
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11
2. M hnh ng IS
Nh ni trn:
APE = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G

r
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12
APE
E0
450
r
r0
29/11/2010
Y0
E0
Y0
Y
13
2. M hnh ng IS
Lu :
Khi li sut thay i cc yu t kinh t khc
khng i th sn lng cn bng s
Khi c cc yu t khc thay i m khng phi
l li sut s lm APE dch chuyn t lm
cho ng IS
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14
2. M hnh ng IS
V d:
Trong nn KT ng, CP nh thu t nh, nu li
sut khng i, nu CP tng G hoc gim T hoc
thc hin c 2 bin php
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15
APE
E0
450
Y
Y0
E0
r0
IS0
Y
Y0
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16
2. M hnh ng IS
c. dc ng IS
dc ca ng IS ph thuc vo:
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17
2. M hnh ng IS
* S nhy cm ca u t vi li sut:
Nu u t nhy cm vi li sut
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18
2. M hnh ng IS
r
r0
r1
I1
I0 I1
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Y1
I1
I
IS1
Y 0 Y1
Y
19
2. M hnh ng IS
* ln ca s nhn chi tiu:
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20
II. Th trng tin t v ng LM

1. L thuyt a thch thanh khon ca Keynes
Cn bng trn th trng tin t xy ra khi cung
tin thc t (Real Money Supply: MSr) bng
cu tin thc t (Real Money Demand: MDr
hay Liquidity Preference: L), tc l:
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21
1. L thuyt a thch thanh khon

ca Keynes
Trong :
Cung tin thc t ph thuc vo cung tin danh
ngha mt bin chnh sch, do NHTW quyt
nh, v mc gi c coi l bin ngoi sinh
trong m hnh.
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22

ca Keynes
Cu tin thc t
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MDr = L(Y,r)
23

ca Keynes
Vi gi nh mc gi khng i (khng c lm pht,
= 0) th li sut thc t s bng li sut danh
ngha (r = i - = i) v lng cung tin danh ngha
do NHTW quyt nh, ta s c:
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24
Cn bng trn th trng tin t

r
M
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25
2. M hnh ng LM
a. Khi nim
ng LM l tp hp tt c nhng im biu th
mi quan h gia sn lng v li sut cn bng
tha mn iu kin th trng tin t cn bng.
b. Cch xy dng ng LM
xy dng ng LM chng ta cng nghin
cu mi quan h gia thu nhp hay sn lng
(th trng HH) v cu tin (th trng tin t).
29/11/2010
26
2. M hnh ng LM
Khi Y
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27
2. M hnh ng LM
r0
MS
P
E0
L0= L(Y0,r)
M
29/11/2010
Y
28
2. M hnh ng LM
Lu :
Khi thu nhp thay i cn cc yu t kinh t khc

cho trc th
Khi thu nhp khng i nhng cung tin hoc cu

tin thay i th
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29
2. M hnh ng LM
V d 1:
Gi s NHTW tng cung tin, trong iu kin mc
gi P khng i, cung tin thc t s tng.
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30
2. M hnh ng LM
r
r0
MS 0
P
LM0
E0
E0
L(Y0,r)
M
29/11/2010
Y0
31
2. M hnh ng LM
V d 2:
Gi s tnh trng gian ln th tn dng gia tng
lm cho ngi tiu dng s dng tin mt thng
xuyn hn thc hin cc giao dch
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32
2. M hnh ng LM
r
MS
P
r
LM0
r0
E0
E0
L0 = L(Y0, r0)
M
29/11/2010
Y0
Y
33
2. M hnh ng LM
c. dc ng LM
ng LM c dc dng
dc ca ng LM ph thuc vo
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34
2. M hnh ng LM
r
MS
P
r
LM1
r1
r0
E1
E0
L1(Y2)
E1
E0
L1(Y1)
M
29/11/2010
Y1
Y2
Y
35
III. Cn bng ng thi trn th

trng hng ha v tin t
ng IS v LM ln lt l tp hp cc im
biu th mi quan h gia thu nhp v li sut
m bo cho th trng hng ha v th trng
tin t cn bng, do trng thi cn bng
ng thi c hai th trng ny xc lp ti
giao im ca hai ng IS LM.
29/11/2010
36

trng hng ha v tin t
r
Y
29/11/2010
37

trng hng ha v tin t
xc nh mc TN v LS cn bng (Y0, r0)
chng ta gii h phng trnh i s biu din
ng IS v LM.
Phng trnh ng IS:
Phng trnh ng LM:
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38
VI. Phn tch chnh sch vi m hnh

IS LM
1. Chnh sch ti kha v ng IS
a. Chnh sch ti kha
CSTK l vic CP s dng cc bin php nhm
thay i thu hoc chi tiu iu tit nn KT.
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39

Gi s CP thc hin CSTK m rng thng qua
vic tng chi tiu CP.
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40
APE
E0
450
r
r0
Y0
E0
IS0
Y0
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41
r
LM
E0
r0
IS0
Y0
29/11/2010
Y
42

Khi CP thc hin vic gim thu
Trng hp CP tng c chi tiu v thu t nh mt

lng nh nhau
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43
APE
E0
450
r
r0
Y0
E0
IS0
Y0
29/11/2010
Y
44
r
LM
E0
r0
IS0
Y0
29/11/2010
Y
45

b. Hin tng ln t u t v hiu qu ca CSTK
Vic u t t nhn b gim khi CP tng chi tiu
gi l hin tng thoi lui hay ln t u t
(Crowding out domestic investment).
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46
Hin tng ln t (thoi lui) u t

r
LM
E0
r0
IS0
Y0
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Y
47

Quy m thoi lui u t l mc SL gim do LS tng:
Vy nhng yu t nh hng n quy m thoi lui

v hiu qu ca CSTK?
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48
dc ca ng LM
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49
Hiu qu ca CSTK v dc ng LM
r
LM
E0
r0
IS0
Y0
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Y
50
dc ca ng IS hay nhy cm ca
u t vi li sut
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51
Hiu qu ca CSTK v dc ng IS
r
LM
E0
r0
IS0
Y0
29/11/2010
Y
52
ln ca s nhn chi tiu
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53
2. Chnh sch tin t v ng LM

a. Chnh sch tin t
CSTT l vic NHTW s dng cc cng c ca
mnh nhm thay i lng cung tin qua tc
ng n tng cu v sn lng.
Gi s NHTW p dng CSTT m rng
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54

r
LM
E0
r0
IS0
Y0
29/11/2010
Y
55

Kt qu cui cng l
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56

b. Nhn t quyt nh hiu qu ca CSTT
C 3 nhn t c bn quyt nh hiu qu ca
CSTT:
nhy cm ca MD vi li sut ( dc ca LM)

MD cng t nhy cm vi li sut (MD cng dc,
LM cng dc)
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57
Hiu qu ca CSTT v dc ng LM
r
LM
E0
r0
IS
Y0
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Y
58
nhy cm ca u t vi li sut ( dc
ca ng IS)
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59
Hiu qu ca CSTT v dc ng IS
LM0
r
r0
E0
r1
LM1
E1
IS1
Y0
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Y1
Y
60
ln ca s nhn chi tiu
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61
V. Phi hp CSTK v CSTT

1. CSTK m rng - CSTT m rng
Tc ng:
Kt qu:
iu kin p dng:
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62
1. CSTK m rng - CSTT m rng

r
LM
E0
r0
IS0
Y0
29/11/2010
Y
63

2. CSTK tht cht - CSTT tht cht
Tc ng:
Kt qu:
iu kin p dng:
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64
2. CSTK tht cht - CSTT tht cht

r
LM0
E0
r0
IS0
Y0
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Y
65

3. CSTK m rng - CSTT tht cht
Tc ng:
Kt qu:
iu kin p dng:
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66
3. CSTK m rng - CSTT tht cht

r
LM
r0
E0
IS
Y0
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Y
67

4. CSTK tht cht CSTT m rng
Tc ng:
Kt qu:
iu kin p dng:
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68
4. CSTK tht cht - CSTT m rng

r
LM
r0
E0
IS
Y0
29/11/2010
Y
69

Chuong 2 - Mo Hinh Is - LM Va Tong Cau Trong Nen KT Dong

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KINH T V M II

CHNG II: M HNH IS LM V

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

CHNG II: M HNH IS LM V

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

CHNG II: M HNH IS LM V

Nn KT cn nhiu ngun lc cha c s

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. M hnh giao im Keynes

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. M hnh giao im Keynes

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. M hnh giao im Keynes

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. M hnh giao im Keynes

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. M hnh giao im Keynes

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

APE = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

II. Th trng tin t v ng LM

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. L thuyt a thch thanh khon

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. L thuyt a thch thanh khon

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. L thuyt a thch thanh khon

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Cn bng trn th trng tin t

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Khi thu nhp thay i cn cc yu t kinh t khc

Khi thu nhp khng i nhng cung tin hoc cu

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

III. Cn bng ng thi trn th

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

III. Cn bng ng thi trn th

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

III. Cn bng ng thi trn th

Phng trnh ng IS:

Phng trnh ng LM:

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

VI. Phn tch chnh sch vi m hnh

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. Chnh sch ti kha v ng IS

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU