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Improving foresight
through better theories of
universal change.
EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of physicists,
chemists, biologists, informational, computer, cognitive
and social scientists, technologists, philosophers, and
complexity and systems theorists who are interested in better
characterizing the relationship and difference between
evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and developmental
(significantly predictable) processes in the universe and its
subsystems.
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To
To
To
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To
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To improve
hypotheses
To make specific predictions (how things must happen)
and retrodictions (how things must have happened),
that can be falsified or verified.
To recruit scholars to join us at EvoDevoUniverse.com
To get scholars to read and comment on my 25,000word precis on these topics, Evo Devo Universe?, at
books.accelerating.org.
To tell incrementally better stories about the future (to
improve our collective social foresight).
Talk Outline
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Termite Mound
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Look at how we do it in
domesticated animals (10,000
years, 5,000 breeding cycles).
How many breeds of dogs and
cats can you trust with small
children?
Military will always have the
warbots (narrowly trustable)
Most breeds of robotic systems will
be generally trustable, all will be
trustable for their missions, or we
wont build them using evolutionary
processes.
Sputnik (1957)
U.S.-Surpassing
Space/Defense Tech
U.S. Soldier-Enhancing
Security/Warfighting Tech
Global Soldier-Surpassing
Security/Policing Tech
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Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may
as well.
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Alto J
Smart,
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
8-11 words.
(2003) The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward. 2009 Accelerating.org
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Necklace phone
(Nokia 2004)
Carpal PC concept
(Metaverse Roadmap 2006)
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Wearcam.orgs first-gen
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Palo Altosousveillance cams (2001)
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Ananova, 2002
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Valuecosm 2040:
Our Plural-Positive Political Future
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Microcosm
(Gilder), 1960s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2030s
- Recording and Publishing CT Preferences
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Early Examples: Social Network Media
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Darwin
Evo-devo biology (Conway Morris, et. al.) asks such questions as:
How does developmental process constrain evolutionary process?
How does evolutionary process improve developmental process?
What is macrotemporal evolutionary convergence (homoplasy)?
The Evo Devo Universe hypothesis proposes that, just like biological
organisms, our universe itself is engaged in both evolutionary (variation,
creativity) and developmental (hierarchy, replication, lifecycle) process.
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Conway Morris
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The Evo Compu Devo process model proposes all complex systems engage
in three processes: two (variation and heritability) being fundamental, the
third (computation, selection) being an emergent blend of the first two.
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Evolutionary
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Development
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Evo-devo
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Smart,
New York John M. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations
In:
Cosmos and Culture, Steven J. Dick (ed.), NASA Press, 2009 (est.).
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on Cosmic Culture.
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The
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Deconstrained
Constrained
Exploratory Processes
Unconserved, Unpredictable
Core Processes
Conserved, Predictable
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1. AstroPhysics
(Universe-as-CAS, constants and laws, space-time, energy-matter)
2. AstroChemistry
(galaxies, stars, planets, molecules in inorganic and organic chemistry)
3. AstroBiology
(cells, organisms, populations, species, ecologies)
4. AstroSociology
(culture, human disciplines of economics, law, sci., engineering, etc.)
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5. AstroTechnology
(engines, cities, biology-inspired computing, postbiological life)
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Natural Selection
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Experimentat
ion
Main Actor: Seed
Variation,
Emergence,
Chaos,
Contingency,
Early Species
Radiation
(Mostly
Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
Adaptation
Radiation
Evolutionary
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Compu (EvoDevo)
(Intersection)
Convergent
Unification
Hierarchy
2007 Accelerating.org
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Using the ECD model, we can look at complex adaptive systems as either:
1. Adaptive Systems (making their evo and devo processes implicit),
2. Evo Devo Systems (making their adaptive/comp. processes implicit), or
3. Evo, Compu and Devo Systems (keeping all three perspectives explicit).
Key Conjectures
Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty.
Development causes cyclic predictability and stability.
Evolution drives most unique local patterns.
Development drives most predictable global patterns.
Evolution is intelligence/adaptation accumulation.
Development is intelligence/adaptation preservation.
Life, Intelligence, and the Universe use both
evo and devo processes to emerge and persist.
Individually, each process has conflicting and contrasting
aims (functions, purposes, telos).
Together, they are complementary, and a complementary
evo devo teleology must exist.
The
more consciously we are aware of this, the better
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we can understand, value, and work with both.
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Adaptation
(Organism)
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Evolution, Reductionism
Development,
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Quantum
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S curve
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Power law
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Normal curve
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Power law
Punctuating and
Stabilizing Selection
Bell curve
(Organism)
Divergent Selection
(Competitive)
Evo / Natural Selection
Self-Organizing
Selection
(Cooperative)
Devo / Self-
Results from a
large number of
small effects that act
additively (normal)
or multiplicatively
(log-normal curve)
and independently.
Good IQ Text
Log-normal
Distributions
across the
Sciences,
Limpert etal.,
BioScience
51(5), 2001.
Great Article!
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Republicans are
Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political Issues
Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues
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Democrats are
Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political Issues
Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues
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Competition
Adaptation
(Organism)
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Evolution, Competition
Development,
Generalized
Computational
Efficiency
(Adaptation)
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Conrad
M.
Evolutionary
Variation Capacity
Developmental
Programmabilit
y
1988. The Price of Programmability. In: Herken, R. (Ed.), The Universal Turing Machine:
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Carl Sagans
Cosmic
Calendar
(Dragons of
Eden, 1977)
Each month
is roughly 1
billion years.
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1B yrs: Protogalaxies
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Developmental Singularity?
8B yrs: Earth
Emergence Acceleration:
Independent Assessments (Preliminary Data)
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(ergs/sec/gm)
Galaxies
Stars
Planets (Early)
Ecosystems
Animals (hum. body)
Brains (human)
Culture (human)
Modern Engines
Intel 8080 of the 1970's
Pentium II of the 1990's
Global AI of the 21st C
0.5
2
75
900
20,000 (10^4)
150,000 (10^5)
500,000 (10^5)
10^5 to 10^8
10^10
(10^11)
10^12+
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Eric
Chaisson,
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Performance
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The J Curve
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First-Order Components
are Growth-Limited Hierarchical
Substrates (S and B Curves)
Second-Order
Hyperbolic Growth
Emergence Singularities
and a Limit Singularity
Examples:
Sagans Cosmic Calendar
Chaissons Phi (FERD)
Global Economic Performance
Sci & Tech Performance Metrics
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Note
STEM Compression:
A Curious Process of Universal Development
Acceleration
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F=ma
E=mc2
W=(1/2mv2)
F=-(Gm1m2)/r2
Commentary on the Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics
in the Microcosm, VSLI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980.
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Barter > Coins > Paper Money > Checks > PayPal
Cities (>50% of world population circa 2005)
Working in Offices (or telecommuting with coming
videophone virtual offices)
Wal-Marts, Mega-Stores, 99 Cent Stores (Retail
Endgame: Wal-Mart #1 on Fortune 500 since 2001)
Flat-Pack Furniture (Ikea)
Big Box Retail (Home Depot, Staples)
Supply-Chain & Market Aggregators (Dell, Amazon,
eBay)
Local community/Third Space (Starbucks)
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Quantum
No
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STEM Compression
Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998: Real structures in outer space (the
physical world) are being modeled rapidly better and faster in inner, virtual
space (the digital world). By comparison to inner space, outer space is:
Computationally very simple and tractable (transparent)
A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development
Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science
Possibly a rear view mirror on the developmental trajectory of
emergence of universal intelligence
versus
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Non-Autonomous ISS
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Crutchfield,
J.P. 2001. When Evolution is Revolution: Origins of Innovation. In: Crutchfield, J.P. and Schuster, P.
Palo Alto Evolutionary Dynamics: Exploring the Interplay of Selection, Neutrality, Accident and Function.
(eds.),
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Lipids and RNA may be the only way from organic chemistry to cells!
RNA, lipids/cell membranes, and protein precursors (amino acids) all form
spontaneously in Earths chemistry (and precursors on meteorites).
RNA is presently the only known molecule that can both reproduce itself
and catalyze protein production (ribozymes)
RNA later learned to store itself more permanently as DNA (RNA World
Hypothesis), but DNA may not be the only more stable nucleic acid.
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Alonzo Ricardo and Jack Szostak. Life on Earth, Scientific American, Sept 2009.
Matthew W. Powner, Beatrice Gerland & John D. Sutherland. Synthesis of activated pyrimidine ribonucleotides in
prebiotically plausible conditions, Nature V. 460 May 13, 2009.
Only visible-infrared light gets through our atmosphere and the first
few feet of our water with any efficiency.
Water-based photosynthesis (blue-green algae, Photosystem I) had
to evolve (develop) inside this narrow fitness region (portal path),
and is likely chained to this pathway everywhere else as well.
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Our Sun puts out almost all its radiant energy in the spectral band
absorbable by our atmosphere and water and useful to life, and virtually
none in those regions harmful to life
Are these spectral fits independent or coupled processes? For example,
could solar wind sort atmospheric gases like this?
Is this Weak Anthropic Principle (observer dependent sorting), Strong
Anthropic Principle (Universal Devel. Process), or some other process?
Random probability of such a fortuitous Sun-Earth fit seems quite low.
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Portal Paths
Variation
Adaptation
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Replic. carbohydrates
(RNA world) and fats
(lipid membranes), then
proteins (modern cells)
Energetics: H2S
chemo-synthesis (1st
life) later, visible light
(photosynth and vision)
L vs. R asymmetries
(other symm. choices
are false variation)
Portal Paths
Variation
Adaptation
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Agricultural-Domestic
Society
Variety of plants/farming
animals/husbandry
Industrial Society
Variety of machine
designs, energy sources
Manchester factories,
Fords assembly line
Regulated Capitalism
with Property Rights
Freer-Market, Regul.,
and Autocratic
Capitalism
Order of voting/rights/
entitlemnt acquisitions
(child, women, slaves)
Information-Automation
Society
Portal Paths
Variation
Adaptation
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One to multi-wheeled
vehicles, active and
passive balancing.
L vs. R asymmetries
Gunpowder, cannons,
and guns
Fireworks in China, no
guns in Japan for 250 yrs
Combustion engines
(external and internal)
Electricity
Evo Fanout
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Some
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Examples:
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Secularism (human-derived
values)
Ecumenicalism (seeing
wisdom in all faiths)
Rationality (logic+empiricism)
Self Expression
Subjective Well Being
Quality of Life
Sustainability
World Awareness
Future Orientation
Political Moderation
Interpersonal Trust
Casualness
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worldvaluessurvey.org
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Saturation
occurs in the development of complex adaptive systems at every level
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of
hierarchy, from cosmic elements to cell types to family types.
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Gerhart
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Gerhart
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3. Developmental Singularity
(Black Hole Destiny, Transcension) Hypothesis
- Where does universal intelligence go as it develops?
- In an evo devo universe, are successful universal intelligences
developmental replicators, constrained to a black hole destiny?
- As with biology, can such intelligences (slightly) alter their
developmental parameters and (more broadly) alter their
multiversal environment during each replication cycle?
Some (yet not all) fundamental parameters of our universe seem very finely
and unreasonably tuned for the emergence of life and complexity in a
universal environment, as devel. genes are tuned for the emergence of
complex organism in a biological environment:
Gravitational
coupling constant
Electromagnetic coupling constant
Fine structure constant
Strong nuclear force
Weak nuclear force
Proton/electron mass ratio
Mass and energy of the universe
Expansion rate of the universe
Uniformity and entropy level of the universe
Speed of light
Nuclear energy levels of Be, C, and O.
Another dozen or so special constants
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Perhaps
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Just
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Black
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About six billion yrs ago, our universes expansion rate began to accelerate.
Our local universe is now self-fractionating into local islands (supergalaxies).
Our supergalaxy will include only the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies
(Nagamine and Loeb 2003)
Each of these supergalaxies must apparently engage in evolutionarily unique
mergers (natural selection) among all their developed intelligent civilizations.
From the black hole intelligences time perspective, such mergers will occur
virtually instantaneously, in no subjective time. This is because black holes,
and only black holes, are a one-way time travel device.
Note the apparent advantages of this structure for evolutionary variation, natural
selection, and development, from the perspective of the accelerating intelligence.
Andromeda Galaxy is
only 2 mill light yrs away
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Science has started to ask such questions, but we are still a long
way from knowing the answers
Brief Conclusions
The more we study the dual processes of evo devo, the better we
discover how a simple yet specially-tuned background, plus diverse
local creativity (foreground), allows the self-organization of complex
systems.
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Creation (Possible)
personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies
for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation,
exploratory research and development, creative thinking,
social networking
Discovery (Probable)
forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of
prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems
theory, risk analysis, marketing research
Management (Preferable)
environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking,
scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging,
enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and
time management systems, positive-sum outcomes
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Outlines
Evo
Developmental
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Singularity Hypothesis
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Science
Technology
Acceleration Engines
Environment
Economics
Politics
Society
Acceleration Steerers
Physical Sciences
Social Sciences
Chemical Sciences
Engineering Sciences
Biological Sciences
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AI & Robotics
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Space
- Declining info from astronomy and
cosmology, but not astrobiology.
- Stratellites, telerobots, end of
primates-in-cans-in-vacuum
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http://www.unc.edu/~nielsen/special/s2/s2.htm and
Ackerman et. al. The Political Economy of Inequality, 2000.
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Zakaria,
The Future of Freedom 2007, The Post-American World, 2008
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Palo Alto The American Anomaly: US Politics and Govt. in Comparative Perspective,
Smith,
2007
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http://www.accelerating.org/articles/huebnerinnovation.html
http://extremeinequality.org
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Pluralistic
Positive-Sum
Differentiated
Both/And
Social-Tech
versus
versus
versus
versus
Plutocratic
Zero-Sum
Homogeneous
Either/Or Futures
AND
Individual advance
(Top-Down, Devo)
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Calculator Prolif.
Automation Incr.
Metaverse Adv.
Automated Cars
Digital Twins
Security
(Bottom-Up, Evo)
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
Math Skills
Work/Prod. Skills
Study/Reading Skills
Driving Skills
Self-Empowerment
Freedom (to & from)
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Discussion