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# Reserve Estimation

Volumetric Method
G=Ah(1-Swi)/Bgi

## G = Initial gas in place , SCF

A = area of the reservoir , ft2
h = average formation thickness, ft

## = formation porosity, fraction

Swi= irreducible water saturation, fraction
Bgi = initial gas formation volume factor
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= ft3/SCF

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Separator

scf

scf

Stock
tank
STB
Bo =

res bbl

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Oil

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STB

p > pb

## Three things happen to reservoir oil as

it is produced to surface
1. Loses mass - gas comes out of solution on
trip to surface
2. Contracts - temperature decrease from
reservoir temperature to 60F
3. Expands - pressure decreases from
reservoir pressure to atmospheric pressure

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(c)

1 dv
c
vi dp

1/Pa

v v ic p

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Np
Gp
Wp

Vp

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Sw = Vwi/Vpi
m = Vgi/Voi

Vg

Free Gas

Vo

Vw

Water

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Gi
Ni
Wi

V
Vi
c
p
Vw

@ Initial

Vo
Bo = Boi

Bw = Bwi

ct

@ Bubble p.

Vw

Vo

bp

bp

Bw = Bwp
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Bo = Bop
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## 120 acre "reservoir"

Net thickness is h = 40 ft
Porosity: 0.25, Water saturation 0.3
pi = 5000 psi
Pb =2000 psi
Boi initial 1.25 res-bbl/stb
Bob at bubble point: 1.45 res-bbl/stb
cwi = 2x10-6 1/psi water compr
cr = 5x10-6 1/psi "rock compr"

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## What is the approximate value of the oil in place

(assume a reasonable oil price)

## How much oil has been produced in the first stage of

exploitation, when the reservoir is depleted from initial
pressure to bubble point pressure (undersaturated
period)?

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## Determine the percentage components of

the drive in the period of "undersaturated
oil"
Pore space "compaction":
Water expansion:
Oil expansion:

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Drive
Mechanism

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Oil Reservoirs
Range

Average

Solution-gasdrive

5-30

Gas-capdrive
(primary,secondary)

10-50

15

Waterdrive

25-60

30

Gravity-drainage
drive

15-85

45

Compaction

<5%

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DriveMechanism

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Gas
Reservoirs
Range

Average

Volumetricreservoir
(Gasexpansiondrive)

70-90

60

Waterdrive

35-65

40

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Tank

1D

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ResourceClassificationSystem

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Resources
Resources(RecoverableResources)
(RecoverableResources)

Petroleum
Petroleumwhich
whichare
areanticipated
anticipatedtotobe
becommercially
commerciallyrecovered
recovered
from
fromknown
knownaccumulations
accumulationsfrom
fromaagiven
givendate
dateforward
forward

DiscoveredResources
DiscoveredResources

Total
Totaldiscovered
discovereddeliverable
deliverablequantities
quantities
based
basedon
onininplace
placevolume
volumeand
andrecovery
recovery
factor
factor

Reserves
Aticipated to be
commercially recovered
from known
accumulations from a
given date forward
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UndiscoveredResources
UndiscoveredResources

Total
Totalestimated
estimatedquantities
quantitiestotobe
be
recovered
recoveredfrom
fromaccumulations
accumulationsthat
that
remainto
remaintobe
bediscovered
discovered

Hypothetical

Speculative

Mapped prospects

## Not yet been mapped

PotentialResources
Not commercially
producible at present

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Reserves
Petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered
from known accumulations from a given date forward

ProvedReserves

UnprovedReserves

## Estimated with reasonable certainty

to be commercially recovered

proved reserves

Probablereserves

Possiblereserves

to be recovered

## Less likely than likely

to be recovered

Developed
Reserves

Undeveloped
Reserves

Expected to be
recovered form
existing wells

Expected to be recovered
investment

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ReserveDefinitions

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## Reserves Contributing Factors

Reserves
Reserves
EconomicConditions

GovernmentRegulations

Historical prices/costs

OperatingMethods
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Reserves
Deterministic vs.
Probabilistic

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ProbabilisticEstimation
Possible ?

Probability

Cum. Probability

90thpercentile

Probable ?

Mean

Mean,P50
10thpercentile

90thpercentile

10thpercentile

Value

Value

Proved ?

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ProbabilisticEstimation(Contd)
Probability
Whichoneisthemost
confident?
Mode
GeometricMean
Median

10thpercentile

90thpercentile

Value
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ApplyingStatisticsinReservesEstimation
Probabilisticestimateisveryusefultoformanuncertainty
rangeofandestimation.
Itsimplicationiswhat the safe side of the estimateandwhat
theoutrageousoneare
Ifstatisticalmethodistobeused,each reserve category should
be assessed on different basistoreflectitsinherentdifferent
levelofconfidenceindatafromwhichitisderived.
Criteriainassessinglevelofconfidenceisqualitativelyspelled
outinSPE/WPCdefinitions.
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Caution
Becauseofpotentialdifferencesinuncertainty,

cautionshouldbeexercised
whenaggregatingdifferentreserveclassification

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Water displaces
petroleum in the
reservoir
Invasion of water
results from
reservoir pressure
drop
Two basic types:
A-Edgewater
drive, BBottomwater
drive

A
Areal view

Cross-section

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## Gas evolves from

oil as reservoir
pressure
decreases
Evolved gas
displaces oil from
pores
Displaced oil
moves in direction
of lowest pressure

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Undersaturated
oil
oil

PORE

## Saturated oil with

evolved gas

Gas

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Component Black Oil Volatile Oil Gas Condensate Wet Gas Dry Gas
C1

48.83

64.36

87.07

95.85

86.67

C2

2.75

7.52

4.39

2.67

7.77

C3

1.93

4.74

2.29

0.34

2.95

C4

1.60

4.12

1.74

0.52

1.73

C5

1.15

3.97

0.83

0.08

0.88

C6

1.59

3.38

0.60

0.12

42.15

11.91

3.80

0.42

225

181

112

157

625

2000

18,200

105,000

Tank API

34.3

50.1

60.8

54.7

Liquid
Color

Greenish
Black

Medium
Orange

Light
Straw

Water
White

C7

MwC7

GOR
o

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