Conceptualization of concept of security in

21st Century
Power: Balance
National Power

of

Power,

Elements

Foreign
Policy:
Determinants,
making and analysis
National Interest & Sovereignty

of

decision

Conceptualization of security in 21 st Century

Students of Int. Politics deal the most

profound Question;
Whether the International security is
possible to achieve and what are the
causes of war?
Answer it keeping in mind the previous
lecture.

1.Human Nature 2. State interest 3. Anarchy

Realism remains the best thought

explain Int. and national Security.
Security is a contested concept

to

Consensus there must be freedom from threats

to core values, independence, integration,
ideology.
Disagreement freedom of whom? Individual,
Nation, or International?

Security is mostly defined in military terms.

Concept of Security
Traditional Concept of Security
Military Security against threats from abroad.
1.Today If India diverts the flow of our water?
2.If enemies of Pakistan sabotage CPEC?
3.If Gwadar becomes a failure because Cha bahar ?
4.If our society is polarized on sectarian and ethnic lines?
Non-traditional concept of Security
NT concept of security (Barry Buzan, 1983) from
Military
to
political,
economic,
societal,
environmental, as well as military. Against soft
threats (macro to micro level).

Notion of Security
A nation is secure to the extent to which it is not in
danger of having to sacrifice core values if it wishes
to avoid war. And is able, if challenged, to maintain
them by victory in such wars.
Walter Lippmann
Security is absence of threat.

Arnold Wolfers

Security is about the ability of state and society to

maintain its independence, identity and functional
integrity.
Barry Buzan

Traditional National security: is protection of a

states sovereignty and territorial integrity from
external military attack. (military)

Non-traditional security: is protection of a

states institutions and governing capacity from
non-military threats. (non-military)

New Threats and threat perception

Wars, conflicts, movements, and revolutions
are newly perceived threats.
1973 oil crisis highlighted the prominence of
economic security.
Growing signs of environmental degradation, such
as air pollution, acid rain, and deforestation
are environmental threats.
SARS, Bird flu, Ebola, Mad cow, Swine flu, and
Zika virus.
Rapid climate change may lead to floods, famine,
draught, food insecurity etc.

New Threats and threat perception

The 9/11 attacks dramatically changed Western
thinking about security and non-state-actors.

Globalization, Failed States, 9/11, Bali

Bombing, 7/7, Madrid Attacks, Paris Attacks,
Mehran Base attacks, GHQ attacks, and preemptive actions.

From traditional to non-traditional approach

Traditional approach is concerned about military

issues like; deterrence, balance of power,
alliances, and weapon proliferation.
It was state-centric approach that had overshadowed the attention on intra-state issues.
Like identity (Societal), environment, economic,
and political etc.

5 Sectors of security by Barry Buzan

Societal Security
Societal insecurity exists when a society defines a
development as a threat to their existence and
survival.
Refugees As threat to Pakistan, Jordan, Turkey, Iran,
and Germany.
Migrants can lead to conflict and unrest & social
friction.

 Ethnic disharmony is a threat in multi-ethnic

societies like Pakistan, SL, Afghanistan and India.
Changing demography is also a threat From
majority to minority .changing dynamics of
demography.
Ethno religious entities can challenge the state on
the grounds of being unable to maintain their
identity.

Political Security
The heart of political sector is made up of threats to
state sovereignty.
Political stability x vibrant economy= pol security
Representative democratic government prevent internal
dissent and discontent.
Security against
transformation....
Hinduism.

negative ideological and political

India can loose secularism to

Economic Security

The state is required to ensure rule of law and

politico-military security to support the social
fabric.
The main objective of economic security is to develop
rules that generate revenue for state sustenance.
Policies must be compatibility with regional and
global economic trends and rules - Globalization, WTO,
etc.

Military Security
Heart of the military sector is having state of
the art weapons & technology, sound training
of the military forces with sufficient number.
Environment Security
Guarding against;
Environment degradation, draught, famines, Food
shortage,
Land
erosion,
floods,
Rains,
earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.
Environment weapons have been developed by
many countries , HAARP technologies.

Power: Elements
of National
Power

Power
Often defined as the ability to get another
actor to do what it would not otherwise have
done.
Ability to influence other Joseph Nye
Power is the ability to influence (change) the
behaviour of others to get a desired outcome

Hard and Soft Power

Hard power = military power.
States use military power to get what they want,
war, use of force, threat of use of force. (coercion)
Soft power is the ability to attract people to
your side without coercion. Joseph Nye
Smart Power combination of both (hard & Soft)
proportionally. USA-PAK

The logic of power suggests;

The more powerful states generally

prevail.
Estimates of the power of two rivals should
help explain the outcome. Russia and
Ukraine
GDP does not always predict who will
win the war
Realism paints a picture of insecurity and
fear
And advises the states to keep the BOP to

Elements of National Power

Tangible elements of National Power

1. GDP
2. Geography
1.Topography 2. Climate 3. Location
3. Population and man power
4. Resources
(Natural)
1.Coal 2. Iron 3. Oil 4. Gas 5. Water

Human Resources;
1.Capital 2. Technology 3. Labour 4.
Food

5. Industrial and Agricultural output

6. Military Apparatus;
2.Numerical strength
3.State of the Art technology
4.War fighting Capability and will to
fight

Intangible Elements of National Power

Political and Economic System
1.Political system
2.Economic System
3.Social System

Scientific and Technological Base and

Education
National Morals
Religious or corrupt, or social value based

 National Character
Leadership (strong, charismatic, shrewd,
visionary)
International standing/position
Internal Cohesion (Ethnic, social, religious
harmony)
Bureaucratic efficiency
Diplomatic Skills
Popular support for the government

Balance of Power
How Balancing is done?
Balance process can be carried on either by
diminishing the weight of the heavier state or by
increasing the weight of the lighter one.

(1) Divide and Rule

For this purpose third party is necessary that may
exercise its authority with force.
Resorted by nations who want to keep the
competitor weak, e .g. UK, France, Russia with
Germany and Ottomans after WWI & WWII.

(2) Compensation

Compensation in territorial currency 18th 19th

century phenomenon. Congress of Vienna 1815
Fertility of soil, number of quality of population are
the objective standards.
(3) Armaments
This is a typical instrument for unstable BOP
The purpose of armament of nation is to keep up A
and then to outdo nation B.
For both a quantitative evaluation is required.

 Actually armament or military preparedness further

produces fear, suspicions, and insecurity.
(4) Alliances
The most important way of BOP
Nation A and B competing with each other have three
choices in order to maintain their relative power;
They can increase their own power. (armament)
They can add to their own power with the power of
other nations. (Alliance)
They can withhold the power of other nations from
the adversary. (Alliance)

 If a nation believes itself strong enough it

would not go for alliances. Because Burden
of commitments are attached with alliances.
Britain and US have refrained from making
peacetime alliances but acted as if they
were allies. To keep the European BOP.
An alliance requires a necessity of
common interests for its foundation, how
alliance would pay, formulation, and against
whom.. (Iran-Saudi??)

On which basis alliance can be

formed?

 Ideological Bases Arab League Vs. Israel.

Distribution of benefits states equals in
power and equal in resources make alliance
for equal incentives.
Identical interests US+UK Vs. Europeans,
and NATO defense alliance Vs. USSR.

Alliances vs Counter-alliances
Before WWI
Triple alliance (Austria, Germany and Italy) VS
Triple Entete (France , Russia, and Great Britain)
During WWII
Axis Power (Germany, Italy, and Japan) vs Allied
Powers (Britain, France, USA, and USSR)
NTAO Vs. Warsaw pact

The Balancer or Holder of the Balance

The balancer occupies the key position in the

BOP system, since its position determines the
outcome of the competition of the power.
It decides who will win or lose?
Which country can be a balancer B/W
India and China?
Between China and US?
Between Iran and Saudi Arabia?

(5) Intervention

Russian intervention in Georgia 2008

Indian intervention in Eastern-Pakistan
1971
Russian intervention in Afghanistan in
1979

(6) Buffer States

A buffer state is a small or weak state
laying between two rival great powers.
It prevents conflict between them.
A buffer state is sometimes a mutually
agreed upon area.
Poland between USSR and Germany
Afghanistan between Britain and USSR

Assessment of BOP concept

Uncertainty of BOPBecause power

threat cannot be measured accurately.

and

BOP as Ideology acts as mechanism for selfdefence against the potential aggressor.
Imperial countries always use this excuse to
prevent the emergence of a competitor.

Example
(US vs Germany and USSR and now vs
China.)

 BOP as a situation it arises with relationship

of states Iran/India/Afghanistan & Pakistan.
BOP as system . is not between two states,
nor between two blocks but it is within a system
any state that threatens is countered. India by
Pak, China by US, Israel by Iran, and Iran by SA.
As peace strategy .. USA adopted against
Germany & USSR, Pakistan Vs. India.

Foreign Policy:
Determinants, decision
making and analysis

Foreign Policy
Strategies governments use to guide their
actions in the international arena, the actions state
leaders decide to pursue and protect national
interest in given situations.
FP operates under the standard of the national
interest H. Morgenthau
FP is designed to protect and promote the
national interest abroad.
Domestic policy is designed to protect and promote
the national interest within the country.

Purpose of the foreign Policy

Promote a nations
1. Security
2. Stability
3. Prosperity
In the domains of
4. Domestic
5. Regional
6. Global

Stages in foreign policy decision making

1 Assessment of the international and domestic

political environment.
2 Goal setting.
3 Determination of policy options.
4 Formal decision making action (process).
5 Implementation of chosen policy option.
Objectives of FP

Short Range, Middle Ranged, Long

Ranged

Determinants of Foreign Policy

External Factors;
Power structure (international position, small,
middle, great power)
Standing
in
International
Organizations
(importance in int. institutions, pol, econ,
military/defence)
Geographic Location
Reaction of other States Iraq vs. Kuwait & US
intervention 1991, Pakistan in Afghanistan in 1979.
World public opinion/Public Perception
Alliances

Internal Factors;
Historical Influence
Size and Geography
Natural Resources
Economic development
Industrial Development
Military Power
Population
Good Governance and Leadership
Quality of Diplomacy
Political Organization
Role of Media and Think Tanks

Foreign Policy Analysis

3 Approaches to analyze FP
1 How do Size, Wealth and form of
government affect FP?
2 How do population, natural resources and
technology affect FP decision making
process?
3 How does states political culture and
history affect FP?
FP outcomes result from multiple forces
at various levels and analysis.

Graham Allisons three

models of Foreign Policy
Decision Making;

1- Rational Actor Model or unitary Actor Model

Decision maker set goals,

evaluate their relative importance,
calculate the cost and benefits for each possible
course of action,
and then choose the one with highest benefits
and lowest cost.
Unitary Optimizing actor.
Government processes information to maximize
rationality.

Rationality demands, Cost benefit Analysis

Low cost High Benefits

Merits of RAM.
Useful when no or little information is about
the enemy available.
In crisis situation little time for discussions
Demerits of RAM.
Stresses interaction among states, (clash of interests)
Several Actors are crucial to FP Decision-Making;
International outputs are the results of their Interests,
which may differ.
Tensions amongst Bureaucratic Agencies specialization,
wars, funding (UFA, UNGA, PM Nawaz Sharif)

2 - Organizational Process Model (OPM)

Shows the pressures that organizations place
on decision Makers choices.
Assumes goals + objectives are already
established
Limits choices based on SOPs ...

Each organization has charter of its own

style of functioning.
SOPs enhance efficiency.

Merits of OPM
FP decision makers respond based on the SOPs.
Highlights the domestic political influences and
domestic forces on FP..
FP making is a relationship among different
government institutions.
Lobbyists influence is incorporated corporate
sector/religious groups/military etc.
Demerits of OPM
Time consuming.
Gives little options to the elite/ruling class.

(3) Bureaucratic Model/ Govt. Bargaining

Model.
Key individuals in critical positions have great
influence.
They have different priorities.
They have different organizational positions and
commitments:
where you stand depend where you sit.
Informal and formal networks of power and
communication.

Merits of BM
Adds important details about domestic politics. (different
backgrounds).
Helps explain key roles of the individuals.
Helps explain why individuals are at times working for their
self interest.
Therefore, explains why policy sometimes looks irrational.

Demerits of BM
Difficult to study and analyse.
Complex model.
At times state interest is undermined and personal interest
prevail.

National Interest
National Interest is a country's goals and ambitions
whether economic, military, or cultural.
The most important national interest is the
survival of the state.
Security, Stability, Prosperity are the cherished
national interest of every nation

Political traditions and political cultural context

with in which a nation formulates its foreign
policy.
H. J. Morgenthau

Types of National Interests

Primary: physical (territorial integrity), cultural

identity, guarding against external aggression.
Secondary: protection of diaspora living abroad,
diplomatic immunities abroad etc.
General: in the field of trade diplomacy and
international law.
Variable: that keep on changing, it may be
primary or secondary.
Permanent: that can uphold their permanence.

Sovereignty
Sovereignty: A government has the right,
in principle, to do whatever it wants in its
own territory.
The principle of supreme authority within a
territory
In modern times, sovereignty is almost
inextricably bound with territoriality.

Internal. External
It is indivisible, absolute, permanent, and
cannot be transferred Rousseau
For Liberals sovereignty is defines as the in
terms of the states ability to control activities
within and across its borders.
For realists the essence of sovereignty is the
states ability to make authoritative decisions _
the decision to make wars.

Questions for Probing

Foreign Policy decision making is a complex

process, which decision making model is
followed in Pakistan and why?
What are the determinants of foreign Policy of
Pakistan?
Suggest steps for Pakistan to keep the
Balance of Power in South Asia vis--vis India.