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Super Project Valuation

ROFE?

ROFE is not a good way to measure project


feasibility doesn't account for time value of
money. Also uses profit before taxes.
Understates the impact of higher starting costs
in a project
Should use FCF and NPV analysis instead

NPV Calculation (Incremental


Accounting)
year 0

year 1

year 2

year 3

year 4

year 5

year 6

year 7

year 8

year 9

year 10

Net Revenue

2,112.00 2,304.00 2,496.00 2,688.00 2,880.00 2,880.00 3,072.00 3,072.00 3,264.00 3,264.00

CGS

1,100.00 1,200.00 1,300.00 1,400.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 1,600.00 1,600.00 1,700.00 1,700.00

Gross Profit

Advertising Expense -

1,012.0 1,104.0 1,196.0 1,288.0 1,380.0 1,380.0 1,472.0 1,472.0 1,564.0 1,564.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,100.00 1,050.00 1,000.00 900.00

700.00

700.00

730.00

730.00

750.00

750.00

230.00

230.00

240.00

240.00

250.00

250.00

Selling Expense
Gen. And Admins Cost
Research Expense
Start up Costs

15.00

Other(Explain) Test Market 360.00


Adjustments(Explain) erosion
Total Expenses other than COGS

180.00

200.00

210.00

220.00

1,295.0 1,250.0 1,210.0 1,120.0


1,000.0 1,000.0
360.00 0
0
0
0
930.00 930.00 970.00 970.00 0
0

Over Head Expenses


EBITDA

(360.00 (283.00 (146.00


)
)
)
(14.00) 168.00 450.00 450.00 502.00 502.00 564.00 564.00

Cumulative Depreciation
Depreciation

19.00

37.00

54.00

70.00

85.00

98.00

110.00

121.00

131.00

140.00

19.00

18.00

17.00

16.00

15.00

13.00

12.00

11.00

10.00

9.00

NPV Calculation (Incremental)

Discount Rate at
which NPV is
zero=10.33%
Feasibility
depending on
General Foods'
guidelines
Compare to
ROFE findings in
case

NPV Calculation (Facilities Used


Basis)
year 0

year 1

year 2

year 3

year 4

year 5

year 6

year 7

year 8

year 9

year 10

Net Revenue

2,112.00 2,304.00 2,496.00 2,688.00 2,880.00 2,880.00 3,072.00 3,072.00 3,264.00 3,264.00

CGS

1,100.00 1,200.00 1,300.00 1,400.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 1,600.00 1,600.00 1,700.00 1,700.00

Gross Profit

Advertising Expense -

1,012.0 1,104.0 1,196.0 1,288.0 1,380.0 1,380.0 1,472.0 1,472.0 1,564.0 1,564.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,100.00 1,050.00 1,000.00 900.00

700.00

700.00

730.00

730.00

750.00

750.00

230.00

230.00

240.00

240.00

250.00

250.00

Selling Expense
Gen. And Admins Cost
Research Expense
Start up Costs

15.00

Other(Explain) Test Market 360.00


Adjustments(Explain) erosion
Total Expenses other than COGS

180.00

200.00

210.00

220.00

1,295.0 1,250.0 1,210.0 1,120.0


1,000.0 1,000.0
360.00 0
0
0
0
930.00 930.00 970.00 970.00 0
0

Over Head Expenses


EBITDA

(360.00 (283.00 (146.00


)
)
)
(14.00) 168.00 450.00 450.00 502.00 502.00 564.00 564.00

Cumulative Depreciation
Depreciation

19.00

37.00

54.00

70.00

85.00

98.00

110.00

121.00

131.00

140.00

19.00

18.00

17.00

16.00

15.00

13.00

12.00

11.00

10.00

9.00

NPV Calculation (Facilities Used


Basis)

Discount rate
needed for which
NPV is zero=
3.18%
Feasible under
GF's guidelines?
Compare to ROFE
in case

NPV Calculation (Fully allocated


basis)
year 0

year 1

year 2

year 3

year 4

year 5

year 6

year 7

year 8

year 9

year 10

Net Revenue

2,112.00 2,304.00 2,496.00 2,688.00 2,880.00 2,880.00 3,072.00 3,072.00 3,264.00 3,264.00

CGS

1,100.00 1,200.00 1,300.00 1,400.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 1,600.00 1,600.00 1,700.00 1,700.00

Gross Profit

Advertising Expense -

1,012.0 1,104.0 1,196.0 1,288.0 1,380.0 1,380.0 1,472.0 1,472.0 1,564.0 1,564.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,100.00 1,050.00 1,000.00 900.00

700.00

700.00

730.00

730.00

750.00

750.00

230.00

230.00

240.00

240.00

250.00

250.00

Selling Expense
Gen. And Admins Cost
Research Expense
Start up Costs

15.00

Other(Explain) Test Market 360.00


Adjustments(Explain) erosion
Total Expenses other than COGS

180.00

200.00

210.00

220.00

1,295.0 1,250.0 1,210.0 1,120.0


1,000.0 1,000.0
360.00 0
0
0
0
930.00 930.00 970.00 970.00 0
0

Over Head Expenses


EBITDA

90.00

90.00

90.00

90.00

90.00

(360.00 (283.00 (146.00


)
)
)
(14.00) 168.00 360.00 360.00 412.00 412.00 474.00 474.00

Cumulative Depreciation
Depreciation

90.00

19.00

37.00

54.00

70.00

85.00

98.00

110.00

121.00

131.00

140.00

19.00

18.00

17.00

16.00

15.00

13.00

12.00

11.00

10.00

9.00

NPV Calculation (Fully Allocated


Basis)

NPV vs Discount Rate

NPV

0%
(100.00)
(200.00)
(300.00)
(400.00)
(500.00)
(600.00)
(700.00)
(800.00)
(900.00)
(1,000.00)

5%

10%

15%

Discount Rate

20%

25%

30%

Discount rate
needed for which
NPV is zero=0.57%
Feasibility?
Compare to ROFE
in case

NPV Valuation Summary

Essentially compare and contrast the different


accounting method's NPV stats

Final NPV Analysis

Talk about what we included and didn't include


Didn't charge for the test market or the facilities
used and why
Used the overhead expenses because it's
reasonable to assume that as sales for Super
increase it'll cost more to run their day to day
operations

Final NPV Analysis


year 0

year 1

year 2

year 3

year 4

year 5

year 6

year 7

year 8

year 9

year 10

Net Revenue

2,112.00 2,304.00 2,496.00 2,688.00 2,880.00 2,880.00 3,072.00 3,072.00 3,264.00 3,264.00

CGS

1,100.00 1,200.00 1,300.00 1,400.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 1,600.00 1,600.00 1,700.00 1,700.00

Gross Profit

Advertising Expense -

1,012.0 1,104.0 1,196.0 1,288.0 1,380.0 1,380.0 1,472.0 1,472.0 1,564.0 1,564.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,100.00 1,050.00 1,000.00 900.00

700.00

700.00

730.00

730.00

750.00

750.00

230.00

230.00

240.00

240.00

250.00

250.00

Selling Expense
Gen. And Admins Cost
Research Expense
Start up Costs

15.00

Other(Explain) Test Market


Adjustments(Explain) erosion
Total Expenses other than COGS

180.00
-

200.00

210.00

220.00

1,295.0 1,250.0 1,210.0 1,120.0


1,000.0 1,000.0
0
0
0
0
930.00 930.00 970.00 970.00 0
0

Over Head Expenses


EBITDA

90.00
-

Cumulative Depreciation
Depreciation

90.00

90.00

90.00

90.00

90.00

(283.00 (146.00
)
)
(14.00) 168.00 360.00 360.00 412.00 412.00 474.00 474.00
19.00

37.00

54.00

70.00

85.00

98.00

110.00

121.00

131.00

140.00

19.00

18.00

17.00

16.00

15.00

13.00

12.00

11.00

10.00

9.00

Final NPV Analysis

Discount rate
needed for
which NPV is
zero=11.63%
Assuming
these things,
project feasible
according to
General Foods'
guidelines.

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