The Proliferation of Weapons

of Mass Destruction

Todays
overview
History of WMD Chemical, Bio, Nuke
International Treaties
Nuclear Weapons Today
North Korea, Iraq, Pakistan
Iran?

World War I

Chemical
Non-living
First use in Western World - Peloponnesian
War
Rediscovered in Renaissance

Chemical - Modern uses

Iraq-Iran War
Is military research hazardous to
veterans health? (1994) US Senate
Japan - Aum Shinrikyo
Russian forces - Moscow theater
hostages

The Chemical Threat

Chemical Stockpiles

80000

70000

60000
31,000
50000

40000
16,317

Remaining Stockpile
Declared Stockpile

30000

40,000

20000

27,771
10000

16
0
Albania

578
1,055
India

304
605

23.6
Libya

Russia

South Korea

US

Units in Metric Tons

Source: Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons December 2006 implementation report,
Report of the OCPW on the Implementation of the Convention of the Prohibition of the Development,
Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction in 2005.

Biological
Living organisms
Anthrax

Cold War focused on retaliation

A Poor Nations WMD
Iraq
Nearly impossible to detect
Dual-use technologies

The Biological Threat

H5N1/Bird Flu
1918 Spanish Lady

International Treaties
1899 Hague Conference
Navy Captain Alfred Thayer Mahan - "the
inventiveness of Americans should not be
restricted in the development of new weapons."

1925 Geneva Protocol

Bans chemical & biological weapons
Nothing on production, storage, or transfer

1993 Chemical Weapons Convention

Chemical Weapons Convention

Bans:
* Developing, producing, acquiring, stockpiling, or retaining
chemical weapons.
* The direct or indirect transfer of chemical weapons.
* Chemical weapons use or military preparation for use.
* Assisting, encouraging, or inducing other states to engage in
CWC-prohibited activity.
* The use of riot control agents as a method of warfare.
Didnt ratify/sign: Bahamas, Congo, Dominican
Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Israel, Myanmar,
Angola, North Korea, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon,
Somalia, Syria

Biological Weapons Treaties

1972 Biological Weapons Convention
158 states
Bans creation & storage, but not usage
Also applies to private parties

Reviews in early 1990s, US says not in national

interest before 9/11.

2003: National mechanisms for security

2004: Enhancing international response to disease/outbreaks
2004: strengthens detection & capabilities
2005: codes of conduct for scientists

Parties to Bio Weapons Treaty

(2007)

The Manhattan Project

University of
Chicago
Oakridge TN (K25, Y-12, S-50)
for U-235
Hanford WA for
Plutonium
Los Alamos NM
for Bomb
Assembly & Test

The Manhattan Project

Separating U235 & U238
Gaseous Diffusion
Electromagnetic
Separation
Thermal Diffusion
Centrifuge Separation

YF12 Calutron Operation - Oakridge

Nuclear Weapons
First known nuclear test was done
in New Mexico on July 16th 1945
How many tests to date?
US bombs Hiroshima & Nagasaki
USSR tests weapon in 1949
Hydrogen bomb
Only countries to test weapons:
US, Russia, UK, France, India,
China, Pakistan, and North Korea
(possibly South Africa).
Deterrence?

How to Build the Bomb

Fat Man

NPT
1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty
Prohibits all above ground testing

1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty

Except: India, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea
Non-proflieration, Disarmament, Peaceful
Use
IAEA

The Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty

1968

Ratified by 188 states

Atoms for Peace
1. IAEA dual mission of prevention &
promotion
2. The Fissile Bank - Failure
3. Goal of disarmament - Failure

The Big Five (haves) v. have-nots

Giving up nukes
South America - Treaty of Tlatelolco
(67)
Weapons-Free Zone
Gave up programs: Argentina & Brazil
Nobel Prizes to creators of treaty

South Africa
Relinquishes weapons after apartheid

Nuclear Stockpiles

Loose Nukes

Cold War Near Misses

Deterrence and Balance of Power
The Former Soviet Union: Nunn/Luger
A Dirty Bomb
Military Utility of Nuclear Weapons
Regime Security
AQ Khan and the Black Market

Chemical & Biological

Weapons

Easier to make
Easier to deploy
Harder to detect
Harder to fix blame
Can be used in an
asymmetrical context
Therefore, harder to
deter

WMD - Case Studies

North Korea, Iraq, Pakistan & Iran

Nuclear State of the World: N. Korea

Withdrew from NNPT in 1985
Clinton Agreement
The North Korean
Detonation on Oct. 9th 2006
Bush Agreement

The New Regime

North Korea (Kaplan)

N. Korea - Potential Disaster

-Formidable Threat: 1.2 million soldiers, 100,000
elite forces, one of the worlds largest chemical
and biological weapons arsenals.
-Deployment of weapons of mass destruction:
Believed to have around 10 nuclear warheads, the
likelihood of their use increases with greater
regime instability.

Potential Disaster (cont)

-Refugee Crisis: South Koreans and Chinese fear
an influx of refugees more than NK missiles.
-Mother of all relief operations: The US could
be presented with the greatest stabilization effort
since WWII, and have to coordinate operations
with the Chinese PLA.

Potential Disaster (contd)

-Regime Collapse: collapse of the chain of
command of the KFR could be more dangerous
than the preservation of it, particularly when one
considers control over WMD. -Colonel Maxwell,
who explains:
a.) We might have to fight the remnants of the
military while conducting relief efforts.
b.) The elites of the military structure may form
the basis of an insurgency in North Korea.

Kim Jung Ils & Kim Jong Uns

Objectives
1: Control the Military particularly the elites who can
control the forces under them.
2: Split the alliance between South Korea and the U.S.
Support in SK for US intervention has dwindled, and many
may rally to nationalist calls for the US not to interfere.
3: Manipulate the South Korean left.
-by inflicting sufficient damage to press them to seek a
negotiated settlement.
-provoke American attacks to cause them to place blame on
the US for the violence.

Today: NKorea orders UN

nuclear inspectors from plant

VIENNA, Austria - N. Korea barred U.N. nuclear inspectors from its

main plutonium reprocessing plant Wednesday and within a week
plans to reactivate the facility that once provided the fissile material for
its atomic test explosion, a senior U.N. nuclear inspector said. The
North ordered the removal of the U.N. seals and surveillance
equipment from the Yongbyon plant, a sign it is making good on
threats to restart a nuclear program that allowed it to conduct a test
explosion two years ago. But the North's moves could be motivated by
strategy as well. It could use the year it would take to restart the
North's sole reprocessing plant to wrest further concessions from the
U.S. and other nations seeking to strip it of its atomic program.
Coming amid reports that that their leader suffered a stroke, the
nuclear reversal has fueled worries about a breakdown of international
attempts to coax the North out of its confrontational isolation with
most of the rest of the world.
The accord hit a snag in mid-August when the U.S. refused to remove
North Korea from its list of states that sponsor terrorism until the
North accepts a plan to verify a declaration of its nuclear programs
that it submitted earlier.

Reunification
Regional BOP
Centers on China
Threat to Japan?

Cost to South Korea

Kim Jong Un?

Iraq

Iraq
Uses poison gas in Iran-Iraq War, also against Kurds
Iraq in the 90s.
1991: Gulf War ends, UN weapons inspectors begin work
in the Iraq.
1992-94: Iraq largely disarmed of WMDs, while
retaining some research and development capabilities
1995-96: Saddams remaining WMD programs wind
down. Period of weakened internal security and
political turmoil. High-level officials defect.
1998: Saddam kicks out weapons inspectors, arousing
international suspicion.

What we thought (Pollock

Iraq continues WMD programs in defiance
of sanctions.
Iraq will have a nuke w/i a decade or 1 year
if it can acquire fissile materiel from abroad.
Iraq has invested heavily in missile tech
Iraq has renewed production of chemical
agents and it researching weaponization of
bio agents

What we now know to be true!

Iraq had preserved some nuclear
technology, but had not restarted
its nuclear program.
No chemical weapons or bio
weapons were produced, but
some research was carried out
and 1 bio lab was maintained
clandestinely.
Saddam was most aggressive in
pursuit of ballistic missile
technology.

 Overselling the case

Correcting intelligence problems

Pakistan

AQ Khan provided the countrysingle handedly, it

was widely believedwith an arsenal of nuclear
weapons (Langewiesche, 2005).

AQ Khan
Background
Spread technology to:
Iran, Libya, and North Korea
Transfer to non-state actors?

Pakistani & US Reaction

IRAN

Iranian
Nuclear
Sites

What will US/Israel do?