The Statistical Imagination

Chapter 7. Using Probability

Theory to Produce Sampling
Distributions

2008 McGraw-Hill

Sampling Error for a

Particular Sample
Sampling error is the difference
between a calculated value of a sample
statistic and the true value of a
population parameter
E.g., suppose the mean GPA on
campus is 2.60. A sample reveals a
mean of 2.80. The .20 difference is
sampling error
2008 McGraw-Hill

Estimating the Parameters of

a Population
Point estimate a statistic provided
without indicating a range of error
Point estimates are limited because a
calculation made for sample data is
only an estimate of a population
parameter. This is apparent when
different results are found with
repeated sampling
2008 McGraw-Hill

Repeated Sampling
Repeated sampling refers to the
procedure of drawing a sample and
computing its statistic, and then drawing a
second sample, a third, a fourth, and so on
Repeated sampling reveals the nature of
sampling error
An illustration of repeated sampling is
presented in Figure 7-1 in the text
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Symbols
Sample statistics are usually
noted with English letters
Population parameters are
usually noted with Greek letters

2008 McGraw-Hill

What Repeated
Sampling Reveals
1. A given samples statistic will be slightly off from the
true value of its populations parameter due to
sampling error
2. Sampling error is patterned, systematic, and
predictable
3. Sampling variability is mathematically predictable
from probability curves called sampling distributions
4. The larger the sample size, the smaller the range of
error
2008 McGraw-Hill

A Sampling Distribution
A mathematical description of all possible
sampling event outcomes and the
probability of each one
Sampling distributions are obtained from
repeated sampling
Many sampling distributions can be
displayed as probability curves; partitioning
(Chapter 6) tells us the probability of
occurrence of any sample outcome
2008 McGraw-Hill

A Sampling Distribution
of Means
A sampling distribution of means describes all
possible sampling event outcomes and the
probability of each outcome when means are
repeatedly calculated on an infinite number of
samples
It answers the question: What would happen if we
repeatedly sampled a population using a sample
size of n, calculated each sample mean, and
plotted it on a histogram?

2008 McGraw-Hill

Features of a Sampling
Distribution of Means
A sampling distribution of means is
illustrated in the text in Figure 7-3. It
reveals that for an interval/ratio variable,
means calculated from a repeatedly
sampled population calculate to similar
values which cluster around the value of
the population mean
Simply put: Sample means center on the
value of the population parameter
2008 McGraw-Hill

The Normal Curve as a

Sampling Distribution
When repeatedly sampling means for sample
sizes greater that 121 cases, a histogram plot
of the resulting means will fit the normal curve
The X axis of a sampling distribution of
means is comprised of values of X-bars
As with any normal curve, probabilities may
be calculated for specific values on the X-axis
2008 McGraw-Hill

The Standard Error

The standard error is the standard
deviation of a sampling distribution
It measures the spread of sampling error
that occurs when a population is sampled
repeatedly
Rather than repeatedly sample, we
estimate standard errors using the sample
standard deviation of a single sample
2008 McGraw-Hill

The Law of Large Numbers

The law of large numbers states that the
larger the sample size, the smaller the
standard error of the sampling distribution
The relationship between sample size and
sampling error is apparent in the formula
for the standard error of the mean; a large
n in the denominator produces a small
quotient
2008 McGraw-Hill

The Central Limit Theorem

The central limit theorem states that
regardless of the shape of the raw score
distribution of an interval/ratio variable, its
sampling distribution:

1. will be normal when the sample size, n,

is greater than 121 cases and
2.
will center on the true population mean
This is illustrated in the text in Figure 7-8
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Sampling Distributions for

Nominal Variables
A sampling distribution of proportions is
normal in shape when the smaller of P or Q
times n is greater than 5
The larger the sample size, the smaller the
range of error

2008 McGraw-Hill

Features of a Sampling Distribution for Nominal Variables

The mean of a sampling distribution
of proportions is equal to the
probability of success ( P ) in the
population
The standard error is estimated using
the probabilities of success and
failure in a sample
2008 McGraw-Hill

Demystifying Sampling
Distribution
Although we represent a sampling
distributions using formulas and a
probability curve, its occurrence is real
To truly grasp how down to earth they
are, generate sampling distributions by
repeatedly sampling means and
proportions
2008 McGraw-Hill

Keep Straight the

Assorted Symbols
Take care to distinguish population
from sample from sampling
distribution
Keep straight the symbols for each
of these entities
See Figure 7-8 in the text
2008 McGraw-Hill

Statistical Follies
An appreciation of sampling distributions is a
key part of understanding statistics
Poor understanding of sampling distributions
leads the statistically unimaginative person to
treat point estimates as though they are true
values of a populations parameters
Remember: A second sample will produce a
different point estimate
2008 McGraw-Hill