Behavioral Finance

Financial Decision Making

By Najam Us Sahar

Standard Theory of Finance

Investors
Are rational beings
Consider all information and accurately assess
its meaning
Some individuals/agents may behave
irrationally or against predictions, but in the
aggregate they become irrelevant.

Markets
Quickly incorporate all known information
Represent the true value of all securities

Behavioral Finance Provides an

Overlay to the Standard Theory of
Finance by Stating:
Investors

Are not totally rational

Often act based on imperfect information
There are systematic patterns or cognitive
errors that do not go away in the aggregate,
such that there is a positive probability that the
marginal investor will exhibit a cognitive bias.

Markets
May be difficult to beat in the long term
In the short term, there are anomalies and
excesses

Basic Economic Principles

People choose because of limited resources.
Peoples choices involve costs.
People respond to incentives in predictable ways.
People create economic systems that influence
individual choices and incentives.
People gain when they trade voluntarily
Peoples choices have consequences that lie in the
future

The Decision-Making Process

Identify the problem

Gather information and list possible

alternatives
Consider consequences of each
alternative
Select the best course of action
Evaluate the results

Factors that can

Influence a Decision
A. Values
What is important to your family, others in your
culture?
B. Peers
People you know
Pressure for positive or negative behaviors
C. Habits
You are accustomed to doing it this way
D. Feelings (love, anger, frustration, ambivalence,
rejection)

If you do make a certain decision

If you dont make a certain decision

Factors that can

Influence a Decision
E. Family
Your familys preference
Decisions other family members have made

F. Risks and consequences

What (or how much) you stand to win
What (or how much) you stand to lose

G. Age
Minor
Adult

Common Decision-Making
Strategies
spontaneity
Choosing the first option that comes to mind;
giving little or no consideration to the
consequences of the choice.

compliance
Going along with family, school, work, or peer
expectations.

procrastination
Postponing thought and action until options are

Common Decision-Making
Strategies
agonizing
Accumulating so much information that analyzing the options
becomes overwhelming.

intention
Choosing an option that will be both intellectually and
emotionally satisfying.

desire
Choosing the option that might achieve the best result,
regardless of the risk involved.

Common Decision-Making
Strategies
avoidance
Choosing the option that is most likely to avoid the
worst possible result.

security
Choosing the option that will bring some success,
offend the fewest people, and pose the least risk.

synthesis
Choosing the option that has a good chance to
succeed and which you like the best.

Mainstream Finance
Standard (or classical) assumptions:
People know whats in their best interest.
And they act on that knowledge.

Behavioral Finance

Use psychology and economics to

understand finance:
Asset pricing:
Price Anomalies
IPO underperformance
Value Anomaly
Sentiment
Equity premium
PEA drift
Momentum
Bubbles

Corporate finance:

Personal finance:

IPO timing
Winners curse
Cash-flow sensitivity
Overconfidence
Superstar CEOs

Procrastination
Emotional choice
Loss aversion
Narrow Framing
Return chasing
Passivity
Financial illiteracy
Home bias
Overconfidence
Wishful thinking