Thinking Critically with

Psychological Science
Chapter 1
PSYC 100
Dr. Sinan Alper
METU NCC, Fall 2016/17

Do We Really Need
Psychology?
Some people argue that psychology
documents what we already know.
Do you agree?

Well
Studies show that people greatly
overestimate their lie detection
accuracy, their eyewitness
recollections, their interviewee
assessments, their risk predictions,
and their stock-picking talents.
In short, it is not all about simple
intuitions.

Why Are We So Easy to be

Fooled?
1) Hindsight Bias
The tendency to believe, after learning
an outcome, that one would have
foreseen it. Also known as the I-knew-itall-along phenomenon.
E.g., Does seperation weaken or
strengthen romantic attraction?

I knew it

Of course

2) Overconfidence
We think we know more than we actually do.
University of Pennsylvania psychologist Philip Tetlock
(1998, 2005) collected more than 27,000 expert
predictions of world events, such as the future of South
Africa or whether Quebec would separate from Canada.
These predictions, which experts made with 80 percent
confidence on average, were right less than 40 percent
of the time. Nevertheless, even those who erred
maintained their confidence by noting they were
almost right. The Qubcois separatists almost won
the secessionist referendum.
Comments after elections?

3) Perceiving Order in Random

Events
We need nonrandomness to
understand the world. Thus we seek
order everywhere.

What Attidudes Do We Need in

Psychological Science?
1) Curiosity
Explore without any prejudice

2) Skepticism
Always doubt, never be so sure

3) Humility
Be open-minded about any error you might
have made
The rat is always right

Critical Thinking
How do they know that? What is this
persons agenda? Is the conclusion
based on anecdote and gut feelings,
or on evidence? Does the evidence
justify a causeeffect conclusion?
What alternative explanations are
possible?

Research Strategies
1) The Scientific Method
It is not just a theory

Different Methods
1) Descriptive: About observing and
describing people.
A) Case Study: Examining an individual
or group in depth.
E.g., people with brain damages
But it can be misleading if the group is not
representative. It should be backed by other
methods.

Different Methods
1) Descriptive
B) Naturalistic Observation: Watching
people in their natural settings.
Accurate findings?
Big Data

Different Methods
1) Descriptive
C) Survey
Self-reporting
The most common method in psychology

Different Methods
1) Descriptive
C) Survey (contd)
You need to be careful about
Wording effect: adults estimated
a 55 percent chance that I will
live to be 85 years old or older,
while comparable other adults
estimated a 68 percent chance
that I will die at 85 years old or
younger (Payne et al., 2013).
Random sampling: If it is not
random, it is probably not
representative of the population.

Different Methods
2) Correlation

Different Methods
2) Correlation (contd)

 Regression toward the Mean

Average results are more typical than
extreme results. Thus, after an unusual
event, things tend to return toward their
average level; extraordinary happenings
tend to be followed by more ordinary
ones.
Students who score much lower or higher on
an exam than they usually do are likely,
when retested, to return to their average.

Correlation and Causation

CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION!
E.g., There is a strong correlation
between low self-esteem and
depression

Experimentation
If we want to identify causation, we need an
experiment.
Manipulating only one factor while holding
every other factor as constant.
To experiment with breast feeding, one
research team randomly assigned some
17,000 Belarus newborns and their mothers
either to a control group given normal
pediatric care, or an experimental group that
promoted breast-feeding, thus increasing
expectant mothers breast intentions
(Kramer et al., 2008). At three months of
age, 43 percent of the infants in the
experimental group were being exclusively
breast-fed, as were 6 percent in the control
group. At age 6, when nearly 14,000 of the
children were restudied, those who had been
in the breast-feeding promotion group had
intelligence test scores averaging six points
higher than their control condition
counterparts.

Experimentation

Independent vs. Dependent Variable

Independent variable is the variable
you manipulate.
Dependent variable is the outcome
measure that you expect to change
by that manipulation.

Research Ethics
Voluntary participation and informed
consent
No harm and discomfort
Confidentiality
Debriefing

ANY QUESTION?