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f (x)
f (x) Exponential
Uniform
f (x)
Normal
x
x
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f (x)
f (x) Exponential
Uniform
f (x)
x11 x22
Normal
x11
x11 x22
xx1122 x22
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Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
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Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
= (5 + 15)/2
= 10
Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
= (15 5)2/12
= 8.33
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1/10
5
10
15
Salad Weight (oz.)
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5
10 12 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
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Scientific
people
Rainfall
measurements
Abraham
de Moivre, a French mathematician,
amounts
published The Doctrine of Chances in 1733.
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1 (x )2 / 2 2
f (x)
e
2
where:
=
=
=
=
mean
standard deviation
3.14159
2.71828
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Characteristics
The distribution is symmetric; its skewness
measure is zero.
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Characteristics
The entire family of normal probability
distributions is defined by its mean and its
standard deviation .
Standard Deviation
Mean
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Characteristics
The highest point on the normal curve is at the
mean, which is also the median and mode.
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Characteristics
x
-10
25
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Characteristics
= 15
= 25
x
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Characteristics
.5
.5
x
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3
1
2
+ 3
+ 1
+ 2
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Characteristics
A random variable having a normal distribution
with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1 is
said to have a standard normal probability
distribution.
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Characteristics
The letter z is used to designate the standard
normal random variable.
z
0
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x
z
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P(z < .
83)
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P(x >
20)
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Area = .7967
Area = 1 - .7967
= .2033
0 .83
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Area = .9500
Area = .0500
z.05
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We look up
the
complement
of the tail area
(1 - .05 = .95)
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Probability of
a
stockout
during
replenishment
lead-time = .
05
15
24.87
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Example
Suppose that a company has a history of
making errors in 10% of its invoices. A
sample of 100 invoices has been taken, and
we want to compute the probability that 12
invoices
errors.
In thiscontain
case, we
want to find the binomial
probability of 12 successes in 100 trials. So,
we set:
np(1=
pnp
) = 100(.1) = 10
= [100(.1)(.9)]
=3
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=3
P(11.5 < x < 12.5)
(Probability
of 12 Errors)
= 10 12.5
11.5
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10 12.5
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10
11.5
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P(x = 12)
= .7967 - .6915
= .1052
10
12.5
11.5
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Density Function
f ( x)
where:
1 x /
e
for x > 0
= expected or mean
e = 2.71828
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Cumulative Probabilities
P ( x x0 ) 1 e xo /
where:
x0 = some specific value of x
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x
9 10
End of Chapter 6
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