INTRODUCTION

Roy Billinton, Ronald N. Allan, Reliability Evaluation of Power

Systems, Plenum Press, New York, 1996.
Roy Billinton, Ronald N. Allan, Reliability Evaluation of
Engineering, Plenum Press, New York, 1996.
T.A. Short, Distribution Reliability and Power Quality, Taylor and
Francis, 2006.
Hoang Pham, Handbook of Reliability Engineering, Springer,
2003.
Anthony J. Pansini, EE, PE, Transmission Line Reliability and
Security, The Fairmont Press, Inc., 2004.
Richard E. Brown, Electric Power Distribution Reliability, Marcel
Dekker, Inc. New York, 2002
Marvin Rausand, System Reliability Theory, A John Wiley &
Sons, Inc., Publication, 2004.

References
2

 Presence

: 15%

Assignments

: 20%

Mid-semester test

: 30%

End-semester test

: 35%

Total

: 100%

Mid-semester test is closed book(s).

End-semester test is take home exam.

Assessment
3

Availability is a subset of reliability and reliability is a subset of power

quality. Power quality deals with any deviation from a perfect
sinusoidal voltage source. Reliability deals with interruptions and
availability deals with the probability of being in an interrupted state.

Reliability
Distribution reliability primarily relates to equipment outages and
customer interruptions. In normal operating conditions, all equipment
(except standby) is energized and all customers are energized. Scheduled
and unscheduled events disrupt normal operating conditions and can
lead to outages and interruptions.
Several key definitions relating to distribution reliability include:
Contingency
Open Circuit
Fault
Outage
Momentary Interruption
Momentary Interruption Event
Sustained Interruption

Availability vs Unavailability
Availability is the probability of something being energized. It is the most
basic aspect of reliability and is typically measured in percent or per-unit. The
complement of availability is unavailability.
Availability the probability of being energized.
Unavailability the probability of not being energized.
Annual interruption times associated with different levels of availability. A
developing nation may have "one nine" of availability while an internet data
center may have "nine nines" of availability for their servers.

Unavailability can be computed directly

from interruption duration information.
If a customers experiences 9 hours of
interrupted power in a year,
Unavailability is equal to 9/8760*100% =
0.1% (there are 8760 hours in a year).
Availability is equal to 100% - 0.1% =
99.9%.

The power system is functionally and technically

divided into three subsystems
The generation system (power stations).
The transmission system (high voltage lines and switching
stations).
The distribution systems (medium voltage lines and equipments)

Reliability
The ability of an item to perform a required function, under given
environmental and operational conditions and for a stated period
of time (ISO8402).
The term item is used here to denote any component,
subsystem, or system that can be considered as an entity.
A required function may be a single function or a combination
of functions that is necessary to provide a specified service.
All technical items (components, subsystems, systems) are
designed to perform one or more (required) functions.
For a hardware item to be reliable, it must do more than meet
an initial factory performance or quality specification-it must
operate satisfactorily for a specified period of time in the actual
application for which it is intended.

Quality
The totality of features and characteristics of a product or service that
bear on its ability to satisfy stated or implied needs (ISO8402).
Quality is also sometimes defined as conformance to specifications
The quality of a product is characterized not only by its conformity
to specifications at the time it is supplied to the user, but also by its
ability to meet these specifications over its entire lifetime.

However, according to common usage, quality

denotes the conformity of the product to its
specification as manufactured, while reliability
denotes its ability to continue to comply with its
specification over its useful life. Reliability is
therefore an extension of quality into the time
domain.

10

RELIABILITY AND AVAILABILITY

Reliability is the probability of a component / device / system
staying in the operating state without failure.

Availability is interpreted as the probability of finding the

component/ device/ system in the operating state at some time into
the future.

11

Availability
The ability of an item (under combined aspects of its reliability,
maintainability and maintenance support) to perform its required
function at a stated instant of time or over a stated period of time
(BS4778).

We may distinguish between the availability A(t) at time t

and the average availability Aav.
The availability at time t is
A(t) = Pr(item is functioning at time t )
The term functioning means here that the item is either in active
operation or that it is able to operate if required.

12

The average availability Aav, denotes the mean

proportion of time the item is functioning.
If we have an item that is repaired to an as good as new
condition every time it fails, the average availability is

where MTTF (mean time to failure) denotes the mean

functioning time of the item, and MTTR (mean time to
repair) denotes the mean downtime after a failure.

13

The reliability may be measured in

different ways depending on the
particular situation, for example as:
1.Mean time to failure (MTTF)
2.Number of failures per time unit (failure
rate)
3.The probability that the item does not fail
in a time interval (0, t ] (survival probability)
4.The probability that the item is able to
function at time t (availability at time t )
14

Bathtub Hazard Rate Concept and Reliability

Bathtub hazard rate curve

15

The curve is divided into three

distinct regions: burn-in, useful
life, and wear-out.
1.During the burn-in region the item
hazard rate decreases with time.
2.During the useful life region the item
hazard rate remains constant with respect
to time.
3.During the wear-out region the item
hazard rate increases with time.
16

Basic Probability Theory

Roy Billinton, Reliability Evaluation of Engineering.

17

Basic Probability theory

number of success
P ( success)
number of possible outcomes

number of failure
P( failure )
number of possible outcomes

s
P( success) p
s f
f
P( failure ) q
s f

p q 1
18

Permutation

n!
n Pr
n r!

Combination

Pr
n!
n n 1... n r 1

n Cr
r! r! n r !
r!
n

19

Practical engineering concepts

time on outage or failed

unavailability
time on outage operating time

20

Venn Diagrams
S

S
A B

Event A is totally enclosed by

event B

S
A

Mutually exclusive events

Complementary
events

21

Complementary events
If the two outcomes A and B have probabilities P(A) and P(B) then

P A P B 1 or

P B P A

Conditional Events
S
A

Consider two events A and B and also consider the probability of

event A occurring under the condition that event B has occurred.
22

number of ways A and B can occur

P A B
number of ways B can occur
P A B
P B

A B
S

B
S

S .P A B P A B
P A B

S .P B
P B
P A B
P B A
P A

23

Simultaneous occurrence of events

The simultaneous occurrence of two events A and B is the occurrence
of BOTH A AND B.

A B , A AND B

or AB

Events are independent

If Two events are independent, the probability of occurrence of each
event is not influenced by the probability of occurrence of the other.

P A B P A

P B A P B

P A B P A P B

P A1 A2 ... Ai ... An P Ai
i 1

24

Occurrence at least one of two events

The occurrence of at least one of the two events A and B is the
occurrence of A OR B OR BOTH.

S
A

Union

A B , A OR B
or A B
P A B P A OR B OR BOTH A AND B
1 P NOT A AND NOT B
25

1 P A P B

P A B 1 P A B

1 1 P A 1 P B
P A P B P A P B
P A P B P A B
Events are independent and mutually exclusive

P A B P A P B
n

P A1 A2 ... Ai ... An P Ai
i 1

26

Application of Conditional Probability

B2

B3

B1

P A B P A B P B

B4

P A B1 P A B1 P B1

P A B2 P A B2 P B2
.
.

P A Bn P A Bn P Bn

27

P A B P A B P B
i

i 1

i 1

P A B P A
i

i 1

P A P A Bi P Bi
i 1

Example
A certain item is manufactured at two plants. Plant 1 makes 70% of the
requirement and plant 2 makes 30%. From plant 1, 90% meet a
particular standard and from plant 2 only 80%. Evaluate, a). Out of
every 100 items purchased by a customer, how many will be up to
standard and, b). Given that an item is standard, what is the probability
that it was made in plant 2.
28

In Reliability Evaluation, the object of the analysis is

usually to estimate the probability of system failure
(or success).

P system failure P system failure given B is good P Bs

P system failure given B is bad P B f

The complementary situation

P system success P system success given B is good P Bs

P system success given B is bad P B f

29

Example
Consider a system containing two components A and B
and assume that the system fails only if both A and B
fail. Deduce the probability of system failure if Q A and
QB are the probabilities of failure of the respective
components.

30

Cumulative
Cumulative Probability
Probability

Density and Distribution functions

Length,
Length, m
m

Probability Distribution functions

31

1.0

Continuous random variable (a) Probability Distribution function

dF x
f x
dx

or

F x

x1

f x dx

32

Continuous random variable (a) Probability Density function

b

P a x b f x dx
a

P x a f x dx 0
a

33

Mathematical Expectation (exp.

Load Loss Expectation)
n

A discrete random
variable

E x xi pi
i 1

p
i 1

A continuous random
variable

E x

x f x dx

f x dx 1

34

Variance and Standard deviation

In general the k th central moment of a distribution is

M k E x E x

V x E x E x

E x E 2 xE x E E x
E x 2E x E x E x
E x E x
E x 2 xE x E x
2

2
2

35

V x xi E x Pi
2

i 1
n

V x xi2 Pi E 2 x
i 1

Standard Deviation

V x
36

Aplication of Binomial Distribution

37

Properties of The Binomial distribution

n n 1 n 2 2
p q p np q
p q ...
2!
n n 1... n r 1 n r r
n

p q ... q
r!
n

n 1

n!
r nr
Pr
pq
r! n r !
n Cr p q
r

nr

n C r p 1 p
r

nr
38

 p q

n Cr p q
r

nr

r 0

Pascals Triangle

39

Example
Consider the case in which the probability of success in a single
trial is and four trial are to be made. Evaluate the individual and
cumulative probabilities of success in this case and draw the two
respective probability functions.
n=4, p=1/4, q=3/4. The results are :

Number of

Individual probability

successes failures

Cumulative
Probability

(3/4)4=81/256

81/256

4(1/4)(3/4)3=108/256

189/256

6(1/4)2(3/4)2=54/256

243/256

4(1/4)3(3/4) =12/256

255/256

(1/4)4=1/256

256/256

=1

40

Effect of partial output (derated) states

Example
A small generating plant is to be designed to satisfy a constant 10
MW load. Four alternatives are being considered
a). 1x10MW unit
b). 2x10 MW units
c). 3x5MW units
d). 4x3 1/3 MW units
Assume that the probability of a unit failing is the same for all units
and equal to 0.02. The availability is therefore 0.98.

q=0.02, p=1-0.02=0.98

41

Capacity Outage probability table

Units out

Capacity, MW

Individual
probability (P(r))
nCrprqn-r

Out

Available

10

0.98

10

0.02

(a) 1x10MW unit

1.00
(b) 2x10MW units
0

20

0.982=0.9604

10

10

2x0.98x0.02=0.0392

20

0.022=0.0004
1.0000

(c) 3x5MW units

0

15

0.941192

10

0.057624

10

0.001176

15

0.000008

42

(d) 4x3 1/3 MW

units
0

13 1/3

0.92236816

3 1/3

10

0.07529536

6 2/3

6 2/3

0.00230496

10

3 1/3

0.0003136

13 1/3

0.00000016
1.00000000

Expected load losses

Capacity out MW

Probability

Load Loss
MW

Expected load loss

MW E(x)

0.98

0.02

10

0.2

(a) 1x10MW unit

0.2 MW
43

(b) 2x10MW units

0

0.9604

0.0392

0.0004

10

0.004
0.004 MW

(c) 3x5MW units

0

0.941192

0.057624

0.001176

0.00588

0.000008

10

0.00008
0.00596 MW

(d) 4x3 1/3 MW units

0

0.92236816

0.07529536

0.00230496

3 1/3

0.00768320

0.0003136

6 2/3

0.00020927

0.00000016

10

0.00000160
0.00789387 MW

44

Investment cost of plant

System

Expected load
loss MW

Investment cost
p.u.

1x10 MW

0.2

1.0

2x10 MW

0.004

2.0

3x5 MW

0.00596

1.5

4x3 1/3 MW

0.00789387

1.33

Expected load curtailment

System

Probability of
loss of load

Expected load
curtailment, hr/yr

1x10 MW

0.02

175.2

2x10 MW

0.0004

3.504

3x5 MW

0.001184

10.37814

4x3 1/3 MW

0.00233648

20.46756
45

Non-identical capacity
Example
A pumping station has 2x20 t/hr units and 1x30 t/hr unit. Each unit
has an unavailability of 0.1. Calculate the capacity outage
probability table for this plant and compare this with the unit
outage probability table.
a). Unit outage probability table
This data can be evaluated directly using the binomial distribution.
Unit out of service
Individual probability
0

0.93=0.729

3x0.92x0.1=0.243

3x0.9x0.12=0.027

0.13=0.001
1.000
46

b). Capacity outage probability table

Capacity outage table for
2x20 t/hr units
Capacity
out of
service,
t/hr

Individual
probability

Capacity outage table for

1x30 t/hr unit
Capacity
Individual
out of
probability
service, t/hr

0.92=0.81

0.9

20

2x0.9x0.1=0.18

30

0.1

40

0.12=0.01
1.00

1.0

47

Combined capacity outage

Capacity out
of service, t/hr

Individual probability

0.81x0.9=0.729

20

0.18x0.9=0.162

30

0.81x0.1=0.081

40

0.01x0.9=0.009

50

0.18x0.1=0.018

60
70

0.01x0.1=0.001
1.000

48

Network modelling and evaluation of simple systems

Series systems

RA QA 1
RA , RB

QA , QB

RB QB 1

= probability of successful operation of components A

and B respectively
= probability of failure operation of components A and B
respectively

The probability of system

success or reliability is :

RS RA RB

49

Richard E. Brown, Electric Power Distribution Reliability.

50

There are n components in series :

The unreliability is :

RS Ri
i 1

QS 1 RA RB

1 - 1 - Q A 1 QB
QA QB QA QB

For an n component system

QS 1 Ri
i 1

51

Example
A system consists of 10 identical components, all of which must
work for system success. What is the system reliability if each
component has a reliability of 0.95 ?

RS 0.95 10 0.5987
Qs 1 Rs 1 0.5987 0.4013

52

A two component series system contains identical components

each having a reliability of 0.99. Evaluate the unreliability of the
system.

QS 1 0.99 0.0199
2

QS 0.01 0.01 (0.01x0.01) 0.0199

A system design requires 200 identical components in series. If the
overall reliability must not be less than 0.99, what is the minimum
reliability of each component?

0.99 R

200

R 0.99

1 200

0.99995
53

Parallel systems

RP 1 QA QB

R A RB RA RB
n

For an n component system

Also

QP QA QB

RP 1 Qi
i 1
n

QP Qi
i 1

54

Richard E. Brown, Electric Power Distribution Reliability.

55

Example
A system consists of four components in parallel having
reliabilities of 0.99, 0.95, 0.98 and 0.97. What is the reliability and
unreliability of the system ?

QP 1 0.99 1 0.951 0.981 0.97

3x10

RP .9999997

56

Example
A system component has a reliability of 0.8. Evaluate the effect on
the overall system reliability of increasing the number of these
components connected in parallel.
Number of
components

System
Reliability

Incremental
Reliability

% comparative
Reliability

0.800000

0.960000

0.160000

20.00

0.992000

0.032000

24.00

0.998400

0.006400

24.80

0.999680

0.001280

24.96

0.999936

0.000256

24.99

57

Example
A system is to be designed with an overall reliability of 0.999 using
components having individual reliabilities of 0.7. What is the
minimum number of components that must be connected in parallel.

1 0.999 1 0.7
0.001 0.3

n 5.74
Since the number of components must be an integer, the minimum
number of components is 6.

58

Richard E. Brown, Electric Power Distribution Reliability.

59

Sistem seri dan

paralel

Richard E. Brown, Electric Power Distribution Reliability.

60

Series-parallel systems
1

9
11
10
61

If R1, R2,.., R8 are the reliabilities of components 1, 2,

.., 8 respectively then

R9 R1 R2 R3 R4
R10 R5 R6 R7 R8

R11 1 1 R9 1 R10
R9 R10 R9 R10
R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8
R11 0.9 4 0.9 4 0.98 0.8817
Example
Derive a general expression for the unreliability of the model shown
below and hence evaluate the unreliability of the system if all
components have a reliability of 0.8.
62

3
2

4
5
1

5
7
8
5
63

If

R1 ,....., R5 and Q1 ,....., Q5 are the reliabilities and

unreliabilities of components 1,.., 5 respectively, then

Q6 Q3Q4

Q7 1 1 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q6
Q1 Q2 Q6 Q1Q2 Q2Q6 Q6Q1 Q1Q2Q6

Q8 Q5Q7
Q1 Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2

Q5
Q2Q3Q4 Q3Q4Q1 Q1Q2Q3Q4

Ri 0.8, Qi 0.2, and Q8 0.07712.

64

R6 R3 R4 R3 R4
R7 R1 R2 R6
R8 R5 R7 R5 R7

R5 R1 R2 R3 R4 R3 R4
R5 R1 R2 R3 R4 R3 R4

which, for Ri 0.8, gives :

R8 0.92288 or
Q8 1 0.92288 0.07712
65

Partially redundant systems

2

4
5

1
3

7
1

10

11

66

If R1 ,....., R7 and Q1 ,....., Q7 are the reliabilities and

unreliabilities of components 1,.., 7 respectively, then

Q8 Q2Q3
R10 R1 R8 R9

Q11 Q10Q7 Q7 1 R1 R8 R9
Q7 1 R1 1 Q2Q3 R9

Q7 1 R1 R9 R1 R9Q2Q3
R9 is evaluated by applying the binomial distribution to
components 4, 5 and 6

if

R4 R5 R6 R and Q4 Q5 Q6 Q
then R9 R 3 3R 2Q & Q9 3RQ 2 Q 3

67

if R4 R5 R6 and Q 4 Q5 Q6 , then
R9 R4 R5 R6 R4 R5Q6 R5 R6Q4 R4 R6Q5
and Q9 R4Q5Q6 R5Q4Q6 R6Q4Q5 Q4Q5Q6
All components have a reliability of 0.8

R9 0.8960, Q9 0.1040
Q11 0.06237

68

Standby redundant systems

A

Perfect Switching
If it is assumed that B does not fail when in the standby
position, then it can only fail given that A has already failed,
i.e. B is operating.
The probability of system failure is :

Q Q A Q B | A

If it is assumed that A and B are independent

Q QA QB

69

Imperfect switching

PS

is the probability of a successful changeover

PS

is the probability of an unsuccessful changeover

PS 1 PS

Therefore

Q QA QB PS QA PS

QAQB PS QA 1 PS

70

 QAQB PS QA QA PS
QA QA PS 1 QB

Since the failure of the switch in its operating position

A

PS

RS

Q QA QA PS 1 QB QS QA QA PS 1 QB QS
or

R RS 1 QA QA PS 1 QB

71

Evaluate the reliability of the system shown above if A has

a reliability of 0.9, B has a reliability given A has failed of
0.96 and,
(a) The switch is perfect
(b) The switch has a probability of failing to changeover of
0.08, and (c) as (b) but the switch has an operating
reliability of 0.98

a R 1 0.1x0.04 0.996
b R 1 0.1 0.1x0.921 0.04
0.988
c R 0.98 x0.988 0.969
72

Consider the system model shown in Fig. below and assume

that A has a reliability of 0.9, B has a reliability given A has
failed of 0.96. The switch has a probability of failing to
changeover of 0.08, and the switch has an operating
reliability of 0.98. If component C and D have reliabilities of
0.99 and 0.98 respectively, evaluate the reliability of the
system.
A
S
C

B
D

R 0.969

73

The reliabilit y of the system is therefore given by

R RC 1 QD 1 0.969
0.991 0.21 0.969 0.984

74

1
in

8
7

out

10

subsystem1

subsystem2
75

Modelling and evaluation concepts

Richard E. Brown, Electric Power Distribution Reliability.

76

Modelling and evaluation concepts

Conditional
Probability
Method

C
E

P(system success or failure) = P(system success or

failure if component X is good) . P(X is good) + P(system
success or failure if component X is bad) . P(X is bad)
Example
Consider the system shown above in which success requires
that at least one of the paths, AC, BD, AED, BEC is good.
Evaluate a general expression for system success and the
reliability of the system if each component has a reliability of
77
0.99.

C
E

E good

E bad

D
78

RS = RS(if E is good) RE + RS(if E is bad) QE

(a) condition: GIVEN E is good
RS = (1- QAQB)(1 - QCQD)
(b) condition: GIVEN E is bad
RS = 1-(1-RARC)(1-RBRD)
Therefore, the system reliability is
RS = (1- QAQB)(l - QCQD)RE +(1 -(1- RARC)(1 - RBRD))QE
= RARC + RBRD + RARDRE + RBRCRE RARBRCRD
- RARCRDRE - RARBRCRE - RBRCRDRE - RARBRDRE
+ 2RARBRCRDRE
if RA = RB = RC =RD = RE = R,
RS = 2R2 + 2R3 5R4 + 2R5
79

and, if R = 0.99, gives:

RS = 0.99979805
= 0.999798 (to six decimal places)

Cut Set method

The cut set method is a powerful one for evaluating the
reliability of a system for two main reasons:
(i) It can be easily programmed on a digital computer for the
fast and efficient solution of any general network.
(ii) The cut sets are directly related to the modes of system
failure and therefore identify the distinct and discrete ways in
which a system may fail.
A cut set can be defined as follows: A cut set is a set of
system components which, when failed, causes failure
of the system.
80

The minimum subset of any given set of components which

causes system failure is known as a minimal cut set. It can
be defined as follows: A minimal cut set is a set of system
components which, when failed, causes failure of the system
but when any one component of the set has not failed, does
not cause system failure.
Number of minimal
cut set

Components of the
cut set

AB

CD

AED

BEC

81

C1

C3

C4

C2

Although these cut sets are in series, the concept of series systems
cannot be used because the same component can appear in two or
more of the cut sets. e.g., component A appears in cuts C1 and C3. The
concept of union does apply however and if the ith cut is designated as
Ci, and its probability of occurrence is designated as P(C i) then the
unreliability of the system is given by

82

QS P (C1 C2 C3 ....... Ci ........ Cn )

therefore

= QAQB + QCQD + QAQDQE + QBQCQE- QAQBQCQD

- QAQBQDQE - QAQBQCQE QAQCQDQE - QBQCQDQE
+2QAQBQCQDQE
if QA = QB = QC = QD = QE = Q, then
QS = 2Q2 + 2Q3 5Q4 + 2Q5

If R =0.99, Q=1- 0.99= 0.01, and

Qs = 0.00020195
and RS = 1-0.00020195 = 0.99979805 (as
before).

83

Approximate evaluation

QS P C1 P C2 ..... P Ci
n

..... P Cn Ci
i 1

the unreliability of the system is now

Qs = QAQB + QCQD + QAQDQE + QBQCQE

which, if QA = QB = QC = QD = QE = Q, gives
Qs = 2Q2 + 2Q3
if Q = 0.01: QS = 0.000202
and RS = 0.999798
84

Deducing the minimal cut sets

The methods for deducing cuts are based on a knowledge of
the minimal paths between input and output. A minimal path
can be defined as: A path between the input and output is
minimal if, in that path, no node or intersection between
branches is traversed more than once.
From this definition, the minimal paths are AC, BD, AED,
BEC.

Component

Path

A B C D E

1
2

1 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 1 0

3
4

1 0 0 1 1
0 1 1 0 1

85

No single column exists in which all elements are non-zero.

Therefore there are no first order cuts;
All elements of the following combinations of two columns
are non-zero and therefore form second order cuts: AB, CD.
Since there are no first order cuts, AB and CD both form
second order minimal cuts;
All elements of the following combinations of three columns
are non-zero and therefore form third order cuts: ABC, ABD,
ABE, ACD, ADE, BCD, BCE, CDE. Eliminating from these
those cuts containing AB and CD gives ADE and BCE as the
third order minimal cuts; and
An examination of higher order combinations shows that
there are no further minimal cuts.
The minimal cut sets are AB, CD, ADE and BCE, as
obtained previously.
86

Application and comparison

of previous techniques

B
A
F

Evaluate the reliability of the

system shown using conditional
probability and cut Set methods if
each component has a reliability
of 0.99.

C
E

87

The reliability of the system can now be deduced as

follows:
RS = RS( if F is good) RF+ RS( if F is bad) QF
RS( if F is bad) = 1-(1-RBRDRE)(1-RARC)
RS( if F is good) = RS(if A is good) RA+ RS(if A is
bad)QA
RS( if A is good) = 1 - QCQE
RS( if A is bad) = RBRDRE
substituting gives
RS = [(1 - QCQE)RA+ RBRDREQA]RF+ [1 - (1 - RBRDRE)
(1 - RARC)]QF
substituting numerical values gives
RS = 0.999602 and QS = 0.000398
88

(b) Cut set method

The minimal cut sets of the network are (AB), (AD), (AE),
(CE), (BCF) and (CDF).
Consider first the result that will be obtained if only second
order events are used and the evaluation is reduced to one
of summating the cut probabilities. In this case:
QS = QAQB+ QAQD+ QAQE+ QCQE
= 0.000400
RS = 0.999600
Consider now the result that will be obtained if all of the cuts
are used and the evaluation is again limited to one of
summating the cut probabilities. In this case
QS= QAQB + QAQD + QAQE + QCQE + QBQCQF+ QCQDQF
= 0.000402 (upper bound to system unreliability)
RS=0.999598
89

Tie set method

The tie set method is essentially the complement of the cut
set method.
A tie set is a minimal path of the system and is therefore a
set of system components connected in series.
Consequently, a tie set fails if any one of the components in it
fails and this probability can be evaluated using the principle
of series systems. For the system to fail however, all of the
tie sets must fail and therefore all tie sets are effectively
connected in parallel.
C

A
E
B

D
90

T1
T2
T3
T4

RS P T1 T2 T3 T4
in which Ti is the ith tie set and its probability of
occurrence is P(Ti).
91

RS P T1 P T2 P T3 P T4 P T1 T2

P T1 T3 P T1 T4 P T2 T3 P T2 T4
P T3 T4 P T1 T2 T3 P T1 T2 T4
P T1 T3 T4 P T2 T3 T4

- P T1 T2 T3 T4
where

P T1 RA RC

P T2 RB RD

P T3 RA RE RD
P T4 RB RE RC

92

P T1 T2 P T1 P T2 RA RB RC RD
P T1 T3 P T1 P T3 RA RC RD RE

P T1 T4 P T1 P T4 RA RB RC RE

P T2 T3 P T2 P T3 RA RB RD RE

P T2 T4 P T2 P T4 RB RC RD RE

P T3 T4 P T3 P T4 RA RB RC RD RE
P T1 T2 T3 P T1 T2 T4

P T1 T3 T4

P T2 T3 T4

P T1 T2 T3 T4 RA RB RC RD RE
93

If

RA RB RC RD RE R,

RS 2 R 2 R 5R 2 R
2

and if, R =0.99, then

RS = 0.99979805 and QS = 0.00020195 (as before)
= 0.999798
and
= 0.000202 (to 6 decimal places)

Connection matrix techniques

A
1

C
4

E
B

D
94

to
2 3

node

1
2
from
3

1 A B 0
0 1 E C
0 E 1 D

0 0 0 1

In this example, unidirectional branches (flow is permitted

in one direction only) and bidirectional branches (flow is
permitted in either direction) are both included. The
essence of this method of solution is to transform this basic
connection matrix into one which defines the transmission
of flow between the input and the output, i.e., between the
two nodes of interest. This can be achieved in one of two
ways, node removal or matrix multiplication.
95

(a) Node removal

In this method, all nodes of the network that are not input or
output are removed by sequential reduction of the basic
connection matrix until it is reduced to a 2 x 2 matrix
involving only the input and output nodes. In the present
example the matrix must be reduced to one involving only
nodes 1 and 4.
To remove a node k from a matrix, each element
must be replaced according to

N N ij N ik N kj
'
ij

Where Nij replaces the old Nij

96

1 1 B AE

3 0
1
4 0
0

1
1 1

4 0

4
AC

D EC
1

4
AC BD BEC AED

From this final reduced matrix, the element N14 gives the
transmission from node 1 (input) to node 4 (output) and, in
this case is
AC + BD +BEC + AED

97

(b) Matrix multiplication

1 2 3 4

1 1 A B 0

2 0 1 E C
M
3 0 E 1 D

4 0 0 0 1
1
1 1

2 0
2
M
3 0

4 0

A BE

B AE

AC BD

C DE
EC D

98

1
1 1

2 0
2
M
3 0

4 0

A BE
1

B AE
E

E
0

1
0

AC BD BEC AED

C DE

EC D
1

Further powers of M do not change the resulting matrix and

the process can be stopped at this point.
It can be seen from the elements of M that the transmission
from node 1 to node 4 is again the same as in the case of the
node removal method and the tie set method.
99

Event trees
An event tree is a pictorial representation of all the
events which can occur in a system. It is defined as a
tree because the pictorial representation gradually fans
out like the branches of a tree as an increasing number
of events are considered.
The method can be used either for systems in which all
components are continuously operating or for systems
in which some or all of the components are in a
standby mode that involve sequential operational logic
and switching.
Continuously operated systems
(a) Complete event tree
From the previous example
100