Advanced Diagnostics Algorithms in

Online Field Device Monitoring

Vagan Terziyan (editor)
http://www.cs.jyu.fi/ai/Metso_Diagnostics.ppt
Industrial Ontologies Group: http://www.cs.jyu.fi/ai/OntoGroup/index.html

Industrial Ontologies Group, Agora Center, University of Jyvskyl, 2003

Contents
Introduction: OntoServ.Net Global HealthCare Environment for Industrial Devices;
Bayesian Metanetworks for Context-Sensitive
Industrial Diagnostics;
Temporal Industrial Diagnostics with
Uncertainty;
Dynamic Integration of Classification
Algorithms for Industrial Diagnostics;
Industrial Diagnostics with Real-Time NeuroFuzzy Systems;
Systems
Conclusion.

Vagan
Terziyan

Andriy
Zharko

Oleksandr
Kononenko

Oleksiy
Khriyenko

Web Services for Smart Devices

Smart industrial devices can be also
Web
Service
users.
Their
embedded agents are able to monitor
the state of appropriate device, to
communicate and exchange data
with another agents. There is a good
reason to launch special Web
Services for such smart industrial
devices to provide necessary online
condition monitoring, diagnostics,
maintenance support, etc.

OntoServ.Net: Semantic Web Enabled Network of Maintenance Services

for Smart Devices, Industrial Ontologies Group, Tekes Project Proposal,
March 2003,

Global Network of Maintenance Services

OntoServ.Net: Semantic Web Enabled Network of Maintenance Services

for Smart Devices, Industrial Ontologies Group, Tekes Project Proposal,
March 2003,

Embedded Maintenance Platforms

Embedded
Platform

Host Agent
Maintenance
Service

Service Agents

Based on the online

diagnostics, a service
agent, selected for the
specific emergency
situation, moves to the
embedded platform to
help the host agent to
manage it and to carry
out the predictive
maintenance activities

OntoServ.Net Challenges
New group of Web service users smart industrial
devices.
devices
Internal (embedded) and external (Web-based) agent
enabled service platforms.
platforms
Mobile Service Component
Component concept supposes that any
service component can move, be executed and learn at
any platform from the Service Network, including service
requestor side.
Semantic Peer-to-Peer concept for service network
management assumes ontology-based decentralized
service network management.

Agents in Semantic Web

1. I feel bad, pressure

more than 200,
headache, Who can
advise what to do ?

3. Wait a bit, I
will give you
some pills

Agents in Semantic Web supposed

to understand each other because
they will share common standard,
platform, ontology and language

2. I think you
should stop drink
beer for a while

4. Never had such

experience. No
idea what to do

The Challenge: Global Understanding

eNvironment (GUN)
How to make entities from our
physical world to understand
each other when
necessary ?..
Its elementary ! But not easy !!
Just to make agents from them !!!

GUN Concept
2. I have some
pills for you

1. I feel bad,
temperature 40, pain in
stomach, Who can
advise what to do ?

Entities will interoperate

through OntoShells, which
are supplements of these
entities up to Semantic Web
enabled agents

Semantic Web: Before GUN

Semantic Web Applications

Semantic Web applications

understand, (re)use, share,
integrate, etc. Semantic Web
resources

Semantic Web Resources

GUN Concept: All GUN resources understand each other

Real World
objects

Real World Object +

+ OntoAdapter +
+ OntoShell =

= GUN Resource

GUN
OntoShells

OntoAdapters

Real World objects

of new generation
(OntoAdapter inside)

Read Our Recent Reports

Semantic Web: The Future Starts Today

(collection of research papers and presentations of Industrial Ontologies

Group for the Period November 2002-April 2003)
V. Terziyan

Semantic Web and Peer-to-Peer:

Integration and Interoperability in Industry

A. Zharko

Semantic Web Enabled Web Services:

State-of-Art and Challenges
O. Kononenko

Distributed Mobile Web Services Based on Semantic Web:

Distributed Industrial Product Maintenance System
O. Khriyenko

Available online in: http://www.cs.jyu.fi/ai/OntoGroup/index.html

Industrial Ontologies Group

Vagan Terziyan

Oleksandra Vitko

Example of Simple Bayesian Network

P(X)

P(Y|X)
Y

P(Y)-?
Conditional (in)dependence rule

P ( X 1 , X 2 ,..., X n ) P ( X i | Parents ( X i ))
i 1

P(Y y j , X xi ) P( X xi ) P(Y y j | X xi )
P(Y y j ) P ( X xi ) P(Y y j | X xi )

Joint probability rule

Marginalization rule

P( X xi | Y y j )

P( X xi ) P(Y y j | X xi )
P(Y y j )

Bayesian rule

Contextual and Predictive Attributes

air pressure
dust
humidity
temperature

Machine

emission

Environment
Sensors

x1

x2

x3

predictive attributes

x4

x5

x6

x7

contextual attributes

Contextual Effect on Conditional

Probability
X

x1

x2

x3

x4

xk

x6

x7

contextual attributes

predictive attributes
Assume conditional
dependence between
predictive attributes
(causal relation between
physical quantities)

x5

xt

xr

some contextual
attribute may effect
directly the conditional
dependence between
predictive attributes but
not the attributes itself

Contextual Effect on Conditional

Probability
P(X)
X

P(P(Y|X))

P(Z)
P(Y|X)

pk(Y|X)
P(P(Y|X)|Z)

P(Y)-?

X ={x1, x2, , xn} predictive attribute with n

values;
Z ={z1, z2, , zq} contextual attribute with q
values;
P(Y|X) = {p1(Y|X), p2(Y|X), , p r(Y|X)}
conditional dependence attribute (random
variable) between X and Y with r possible
values;
P(P(Y|X)|Z) conditional dependence
betweenattributeZandattributeP(Y|X);

P (Y y j ) { pk (Y y j | X xi ) P( X xi )
k 1 i 1

[ P ( Z z m ) P( P(Y | X ) pk (Y | X ) | Z z m )]}
m1

Contextual Effect on Unconditional

Probability
x1

x2

x3

x4

xk

x7

xt

P(X)

x1 x2 x3 x4

x6

contextual attributes

predictive attributes
Assume some predictive
attribute is a random
variable with appropriate
probability distribution
for its values

x5

some contextual
attribute may effect
directly the probability
distribution of the
predictive attribute

Contextual Effect on Unconditional

Probability

X ={x1, x2, , xn} predictive attribute with n

values;

P(P(X))

Z ={z1, z2, , zq} contextual attribute with q values

and P(Z) probability distribution for values of Z;

P(X)

pk(X)

P(Z)

P(Y|X)

P(P(X)|Z)

P(Y)-?
Y

P(X) = {p1(X), p2(X), , pr(X)} probability

distribution attribute for X (random variable) with r

possible values (different possible probability
distributions for X) and P(P(X)) is probability
distribution for values of attribute P(X);
P(Y|X) is a conditional probability distribution of Y
given X;
P(P(X)|Z) is a conditional probability distribution
for attribute P(X) given Z

P(Y y j ) {P (Y y j | X xi ) pk ( X xi )
k 1 i 1

[ P( Z z m ) P( P( X ) pk ( X ) | Z z m )]}
m 1

Bayesian Metanetworks for Advanced Diagnostics

Two-level Bayesian Metanetwork for
managing conditional dependencies

Two-level Bayesian Metanetwork for

managing conditional dependencies

Contextual level
A

Q
B

Q
B

2-level Bayesian Metanetwork for

modelling relevant features selection

Predictive level

3-level Bayesian Metanetwork for

Managing Feature Relevance

Contextual level
A

Q
B

Predictive level

A
Q
B

Terziyan V., Vitko O., Probabilistic Metanetworks for Intelligent Data Analysis, Artificial Intelligence,
Donetsk Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 3, 2002, pp. 188-197.
Terziyan V., Vitko O., Bayesian Metanetwork for Modelling User Preferences in Mobile Environment, In:
German Conference on Artificial Intelligence (KI-2003), Hamburg, Germany, September 15-18, 2003.

Two-level Bayesian Metanetwork for

managing conditional dependencies
Contextual level
P(B|A)
P(Y|X)

A
B

Predictive level

xm

Causal Relation between Conditional

Probabilities
xn

P(P(Xn| Xm))

P(Xn| Xm)
P1(Xn|Xm) P2(Xn|Xm) P3(Xn|Xm)

P(P(Xr| Xk))

P(P(Xr| Xk)|P(Xn| Xm))

P(Xr| Xk)
P1(Xr|Xk) P2(Xr|Xk)

xk

There might be causal

relationship between two pairs of
conditional probabilities

xr

Example of Bayesian Metanetwork

P(A)

P(X)
A

P(P(B|A))

P(P(Y|X))
P(B|A)

P(Y|X)

pk(Y|X)

pr(B|A)
B

P(Y)-?

P(P(Y|X)|P(B|A))

The nodes of the

2nd-level network
correspond to the
conditional
probabilities of the
1st-level network
P(B|A) and P(Y|X).
The arc in the 2ndlevel network
corresponds to the
conditional
probability P(P(Y|X)|
P(B|A))

P(Y y j ) { pk (Y y j | X xi ) P( X xi )
i

[ P( P(Y | X ) pk (Y | X ) | P( P( B | A) pr (Y | X )) P( P( B | A) pr ( B | A))]}.
r

Other Cases of Bayesian Metanetwork (1)

a)

Contextual level

P(A)

P(X)
Predictive level

P(P(A))

b)

pr(A)

P(A)

P(P(X)|P(A))

P(P(X))
P(X)

pk(X)

Unconditional probability distributions associated

with nodes of the predictive level network depend
on probability distributions associated with nodes
of the contextual level network

Other Cases of Bayesian Metanetwork (2)

c)

Contextual level

P(A)

A
Y

P(P(A))
A

P(Y|X)
Predictive level

d)

P(X)
X

P(P(Y|X))
P(A)

P(Y|X)

pk(Y|X)

pr(A)
P(P(Y|X)|P(A))

The metanetwork on the contextual

level models conditional dependence
particularly between unconditional
and conditional probabilities of the
predictive level

P(Y)-?

Other Cases of Bayesian Metanetwork (3)

e)

P(A)

P(B)

Contextual level

P(P(A))
A

P(X)
X

P(A)

P(P(Y|X))

P(Y|X)
P(Y|X)

Predictive level

A
B

f)

pr(A)
P(P(Y|X)|P(A))
B

pk(Y|X)
Y

P(B)

P(P(A)|P(B))

ps(B)

P(P(B))

The combination of cases 1 and 2

P(Y)-?

2-level Relevance Bayesian Metanetwork

(for modelling relevant features selection)
Contextual level

Predictive level

Simple Relevance Bayesian Metanetwork

Relevance

Probability

(X)

P(X)

P(Y|X)

P(Y)-?
Y

P(Y )
Probability to have this model
is:

P((X)=no)= 1-X

We consider relevance as
a probability of importance
of the variable to the
inference of target attribute
in the given context. In
such definition relevance
inherits all properties of a
probability.

1
P(Y | X ) [nx X P( X ) (1 X )].
nx X
P(X)

P0(Y)

X
Probability to have this
model is:

P((X)=yes)= X

P(Y|X)

Y
Y

Example of 2-level Relevance Bayesian

Metanetwork
(A)

P(A)

(X)
P(X)

P((X)|(A))

P(Y|X)
Y

P (Y )

In a relevance network
the relevancies are
considered as random
variables between
which the conditional
dependencies can be
learned.

P(Y)-?

1
{P (Y | X ) [nx P ( X ) P( X | A ) P( A ) (1 X )]}.
nx X
A

More Complicated Case of

Managing Relevance (1)
Relevance

(X)

Probability

Relevance

P(X)

(Z)

Probability

P(Z)

Probability

Probability

P(X)

P(Z)

Probability of this case is equal to:

P((X)=yes)P((Z)=yes) =
= XZ

P(Y|X,Z)
Y

P(X)
X

P(Y|X)

P(Y)-?

Probability

Probability

P(Z)

Probability of this case is equal to:

Probability of this case is equal to:

P((X)=no)P((Z)=no) =
= (1-X)(1-Z)

P((X)=no)P((Z)=yes) =
= (1-X)Z

Probability of this case is equal to:

P(Y|Z)

P((X)=yes)P((Z)=no) =
= X(1-Z)

P(Y|X,Z)

Probability

P0(Y)
Y

More Complicated Case of

Managing Relevance (2)
Relevance

(X)

Probability

Relevance

P(X)

(Z)

Probability

P(Z)

P(Y|X,Z)
Y

P(Y)-?
nx

nz

P(Y ) X Z P (Y | X xi , Z z k ) P( X xi ) P( Z z k )
i 1 k i

1 nx nz
X (1 Z ) P(Y | X xi , Z z k ) P ( X xi )
nz i 1 k i
1 nx nz
(1 X ) Z P(Y | X xi , Z z k ) P( Z z k )
nx i 1 k i
nx nz
1
(1 X ) (1 Z )
P (Y | X xi , Z z k ),
nx nz i 1 k i

General Case of Managing Relevance (1)

Predictive attributes:
X1 with values {x11,x12,,x1nx1};
X2 with values {x21,x22,,x2nx2};
Relevance

(X2)

Probability

Probability

Probability

P(XN)

P(X2)
Relevance

P(X1)

X2

(XN)

X1

XN

XN with values {xn1,xn2,,xnnxn};

Target attribute:
Y with values {y1,y2,,yny}.
Probabilities:

Relevance

(X1)

P(Y|X1,X2,,XN)
Y

P(Y)-?

P(X1), P(X2),, P(XN);

P(Y|X1,X2,,XN).
Relevancies:
X1 = P((X1) = yes);
X2 = P((X2) = yes);

XN = P((XN) = yes);
Goal: to estimate P(Y).

General Case of Managing Relevance (2)

Relevance

(X2)

Probability

Probability

Probability

P(XN)

P(X2)
Relevance

P(X1)

X2

(XN)

X1

XN

Relevance

(X1)

P(Y|X1,X2,,XN)
Y

P (Y )

1
N

nxs
s 1

... [ P(Y | X 1, X 2,... XN )

X1 X 2

XN

P(Y)-?
nxr

r ( ( Xr ) " yes ")

Xr

P ( Xr )

(1

q ( ( Xq )"no ")

Xq

)]

Example of Relevance Metanetwork

a)

Q
B

Predictive level
b)

c)

Q
B

Relevance
level

Combined Bayesian
Metanetwork
Contextual level A
Contextual level B

Predictive level

In a combined Metanetwork two controlling

(contextual) levels will effect the basic level

Learning Bayesian
Metanetworks from Data
Learning Bayesian Metanetwork structure
(conditional, contextual and relevance
(in)dependencies at each level);
Learning Bayesian Metanetwork parameters
(conditional and unconditional probabilities
and relevancies at each level).
Vitko O., Multilevel Probabilistic Networks for Modelling Complex
Information Systems under Uncertainty, Ph.D. Thesis, Kharkov National
University of Radioelectronics, June 2003. Supervisor: Terziyan V.

When Bayesian Metanetworks ?

1.

2.

Bayesian Metanetwork can be considered as

very powerful tool in cases where structure
(or strengths) of causal relationships between
observed parameters of an object essentially
depends on context (e.g. external environment
parameters);
Also it can be considered as a useful model
for such an object, which diagnosis depends
on different set of observed parameters
depending on the context.

Vagan Terziyan

Vladimir Ryabov

Temporal Diagnostics of Field Devices

The approach to temporal diagnostics uses the
algebra of uncertain temporal relations*.
Uncertain temporal relations are formalized
using probabilistic representation.
Relational networks are composed of uncertain
relations between some events (set of symptoms)
A number of relational networks can be
combined into a temporal scenario describing
some particular course of events (diagnosis).
In future, a newly composed relational network
can be compared with existing temporal
scenarios, and the probabilities of belonging to
each particular scenario are derived.
* Ryabov V., Puuronen S., Terziyan V., Representation and Reasoning with
Uncertain Temporal Relations, In: A. Kumar and I. Russel (Eds.), Proceedings of
the Twelfth International Florida AI Research Society Conference - FLAIRS-99,
AAAI Press, California, 1999, pp. 449-453.

Conceptual Schema for Temporal Diagnostics

Generating temporal scenarios

Recognition of temporal scenarios

N

N2
N1

N3

DN ,S n

DN ,S1

DN ,S 2

S
S1
N5

N4

We compose a temporal scenario

combining a number of relational
networks consisting of the same set of
symptoms and possibly different
temporal relations between them.

S2

Sn

Temporal scenarios

We estimate the probability of

belonging of the particular relational
network to known temporal scenarios.

Terziyan V., Ryabov V., Abstract Diagnostics Based on Uncertain Temporal

Scenarios, International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling
Control and Automation CIMCA2003, Vienna, Austria, 12-14 February 2003, 6 pp.

Industrial Temporal Diagnostics

(conceptual schema)
Temporal
data

Estimation

Recognition

Diagnosis

Relational
network
Industrial object

DB of
scenarios

Learning

Ryabov V., Terziyan V., Industrial Diagnostics Using Algebra of Uncertain

Temporal Relations, IASTED International Conference on Artificial Intelligence
and Applications, Innsbruck, Austria, 10-13 February 2003, 6 pp.

Imperfect Relation Between Temporal

Point Events: Definition
< a1; a2; a3 > - imperfect temporal relation
Event 1

between temporal points (Event 1 and Event 2):

P(event 1, before, event 2) = a1;

< a1 ; a 2 ; a 3 >

P(event 1, same time, event 2) = a2;

P(event 1, after, event 2) = a3.

Event 2
Ryabov V., Handling Imperfect Temporal Relations, Ph.D. Thesis, University of
Jyvaskyla, December 2002. Supervisors: Puuronen S., Terziyan V.

Example of Imperfect Relation

< 0.5; 0.2; 0.3 > - imperfect
temporal relation between
temporal points:
Event 1

P(event 1, before, event 2) = 0.5;

P(event 1, same time, event 2) = 0.2;

< 0.5; 0.2; 0.3 >

P(event 1, after, event 2) = 0.3.

1

Event 2
<

>
R(Event 1,Event 2)

Operations for Reasoning with

Temporal Relations
Compositio
n
a

rb,a = ~
ra,b

ra,b

rb,c

r a,c = r a,b r b,c

ra,b

r2a,b

r1a,b

Inversion
a

ra ,b r1a ,b r 2 a ,b

Sum

Temporal Interval Relations

The basic interval relations are the thirteen
Allens relations:
A
A
A

A before (b) B

B after (bi) A

A meets (m) B

B met-by (mi) A

A overlaps (o) B

B overlapped-by (oi) A

A starts (s) B

B started-by (si) A

A
B

A during (d) B

B contains (di) A

A
B

A finishes (f) B

B finished-by (fi) A

A
B

A equals (eq) B

B equals A

Imperfect Relation Between

Temporal Intervals: Definition
< a1; a2; ; a13 > - imperfect temporal
interval 1

< a1; a2 ; ; a13 >

interval 2

relation between temporal intervals (interval 1

and interval 2):

P(interval 1, before, interval 2) =

a1;

P(interval , meets, interval 2) =

a2;

P(interval 1, overlaps, interval 2) = a3;

P(interval 1, equals, interval 2) =

a13;

Industrial Temporal Diagnostics

(composing a network of relations)

Sensor 1
Estimation of
temporal
relations
between
symptoms
Sensor 2

Industrial object

Sensor 3

Relational network
representing the
particular case

Industrial Temporal Diagnostics

(generating temporal scenarios)
Object B

Object A
N1

Object C
N2

Scenario S

1. for i=1 to n do
2. for j=i+1 to n do
3.

if (R1) oror (Rk) then

4.

begin

5.

for g=1 to n do

6.

if not (Rg) then Reasoning(, Rg)

7.

// if Reasoning = False then (Rg)=TUR

8.

( R) = ( Rt), where t=1,..k

9.

end
10.

else go to line 2

N3

Generating the
temporal
scenario
for Failure X

DB of
scenarios

Recognition of Temporal Scenario

Temporal
data

Estimation

Recognition

Diagnosis

Relational
network
Industrial object

DB of
scenarios

Learning

D N,S

w d
i 1
m

w
i 1

Probability
value

o
m

fi

di

si

eq

d
s

oi

m
i

bi

d R A , B ,RC , D Bal(R A,B ) Bal(R C,D )

12

1
i 1
i

e
Bal(RA,B) =
A, B
12 i 0

wb =0
Balance point for
RA,B

weq
=0.5

wf
=0.75
Balance point for
RC,D

wbi
=1

When Temporal Diagnostics ?

1.

2.

3.

Temporal diagnostics considers not only a static

set of symptoms, but also the time during which
they were monitored. This often allows having a
broader view on the situation, and sometimes
only considering temporal relations between
different symptoms can give us a hint to precise
diagnostics;
This approach might be useful for example in
cases when appropriate causal relationships
between events (symptoms) are not yet known
and the only available for study are temporal
relationships;
Combination of Bayesian (based on probabilistic
causal knowledge) and Temporal Diagnostics
would be quite powerful diagnostic tool.

Vagan
Terziyan

Terziyan V., Dynamic Integration of Virtual Predictors, In: L.I. Kuncheva, F. Steimann,
C. Haefke, M. Aladjem, V. Novak (Eds), Proceedings of the International ICSC Congress
on Computational Intelligence: Methods and Applications - CIMA'2001, Bangor, Wales,
UK, June 19 - 22, 2001, ICSC Academic Press, Canada/The Netherlands, pp. 463-469.

The Problem
During the past several years, in a variety of
application domains, researchers in machine
learning, computational learning theory, pattern
recognition and statistics have tried to combine
efforts to learn how

to create and combine an

ensemble of classifiers.
The primary goal of combining several classifiers is to
obtain a more accurate prediction than can be
obtained from any single classifier alone.

Approaches to Integrate Multiple

Classifiers
Integrating Multiple Classifiers

Combination

Selection
Decontextualization
Global
(Static)

Local
(Dynamic)

Local
Global
(Virtual
(Voting-Type) Classifier)

Inductive learning with

integration of predictors
xt1 , xt 2 ,..., xtm
Sample Instances

Learning Environment
Predictors/Classifiers

xr1, xr 2 ,..., xrm yr

P1

P2

...

yt

Pn

Virtual Classifier
Virtual Classifier is a group of seven cooperative agents:

Constant
Team
Members
Elective
Team
Members

TC,
TM,
TP,
TI
,
FS,
DE,
CL

Team Instructors

Classification Team

TC - Team Collector

FS - Feature Selector

TM - Training Manager

DE - Distance Evaluator

TP - Team Predictor

CL - Classification Processor

TI - Team Integrator

Classification Team:
Feature Selector
Constant
Team
Members
Elective
Team
Members

TC,
TM,
TP,
TI
,
FS
,
DE,
CL

Team Instructors

Classification Team

FS - Feature Selector

Feature Selector:

Sample Instances

r yr

Feature Selector

finds the minimally sized feature subset that is sufficient for

correct classification of the instance
Sample Instances

'r yr , 'r r

Classification Team:
Distance Evaluator
Constant
Team
Members
Elective
Team
Members

TC,
TM,
TP,
TI
,
FS,
DE
,
CL

Team Instructors

DE - Distance Evaluator

Classification Team

Distance between Two Instances with

Heterogeneous Attributes (example)

i d ( xi , yi )

D( X , Y )

i , xiX , yi Y
where:

0, if xi yi
if i th attribute is nominal -

1, otherwise
d ( xi , yi )
else : xi yi

rangei

d (red, yellow) = 1

d (15, 25) = 10/((+50)-(-50)) = 0.1

Distance Evaluator:
measures distance between instances based on
x j1, x j 2 ,..., x jm
xi1 , xi 2 ,..., xim
their numerical or nominal attribute values

Distance Evaluator

dij

Classification Team:
Classification Processor
Constant
Team
Members
Elective
Team
Members

TC,
TM,
TP,
TI
,
FS,
DE,
CL

Team Instructors

Classification Team

CL - Classification Processor

Classification Processor:
predicts class for a new instance based on its selected
features and its location
x relatively
, x ,..., x to sample instances
i1

Sample Instances

i2

im

Feature
Selector

Classification
Processor
Distance
Evaluator

yi

Team Instructors:
Team Collector
Constant
Team
Members
Elective
Team
Members

TC,
TM,
TP,
TI
,
FS,
DE,
CL

Team Instructors

Classification Team

TC - Team Collector completes

Classification Teams for training

Team Collector
completes classification teams for future training
Distance Evaluation
functions

Classification
rules

Feature Selection
methods

Team Collector

FSi

DEj

CLk

Team Instructors:
Training Manager
Constant
Team
Members
Elective
Team
Members

TC,
TM
,
TP,
TI
,
FS,
DE,
CL

Team Instructors

Classification Team

TM - Training Manager trains all

completed teams on sample instances

Training Manager
trains all completed teams on sample instances
Training Manager

Sample Instances
xr1 , xr 2 ,..., xrm yr

FSi1

DEj1

CLk1

FSi2

DEj2

CLk2

FSin

DEjn

CLkn

Classification Teams

Sample Metadata

xr1 , xr 2 ,..., xrm wr1, wr 2 ,..., wrn

Team Instructors:
Team Predictor
Constant
Team
Members
Elective
Team
Members

TC,
TM,
TP
,
TI
,
FS,
DE,
CL

Team Instructors

Classification Team

TP - Team Predictor predicts weights for

every classification team in certain location

Team Predictor
predicts weights for every classification
Predicted weights
team in certain location

of classification teams

Location

xi1 , xi 2 ,..., xim

Team Predictor:
e.g. WNN algorithm

Sample Metadata

xr1 , xr 2 ,..., xrm wr1 , wr 2 ,..., wrn

wi1 , wi 2 ,..., win

Team Prediction:
Locality assumption
Each team has certain subdomains in the space
of instance attributes, where it is more reliable
than the others;
This assumption is supported by the experiences,
that classifiers usually work well not only in certain
points of the domain space, but in certain
subareas of the domain space [Quinlan, 1993];
If a team does not work well with the instances
near a new instance, then it is quite probable that
it will not work well with this new instance also.

Team Instructors:
Team Integrator
Constant
Team
Members
Elective
Team
Members

TC,
TM,
TP
,
TI
,
FS,
DE,
CL

Team Instructors

Classification Team

TI - Team Integrator produces classification

result for a new instance by integrating
appropriate outcomes of learned teams

Team integrator
produces classification result for a new instance by
integrating appropriate outcomes
teams
Weightsof
of learned
classification
teams
New instance

in the location of a new instance

xt1, xt 2 ,..., xtm

FSi1

DEj1

CLk1

yt1

FSi2

DEj2

CLk2

yt2

FSin

DEjn

CLkn

yt1

Classification teams

Team Integrator

wt1, wt 2 ,..., wtn

yt

Static Selection of a Classifier

Static selection means that we try all teams
on a sample set and for further
classification select one, which achieved
the best classification accuracy among
others for the whole sample set. Thus we
select a team only once and then use it to
classify all new domain instances.

Dynamic Selection of a Classifier

Dynamic selection means that the team is being
selected for every new instance separately
depending on where this instance is located. If it
has been predicted that certain team can better
classify this new instance than other teams, then
this team is used to classify this new instance. In
such case we say that the new instance belongs
to the competence area of that classification
team.

Conclusion
Knowledge discovery with an ensemble of classifiers is known to
be more accurate than with any classifier alone [e.g. Dietterich,
1997].
If a classifier somehow consists of certain feature selection
algorithm, distance evaluation function and classification rule,
then why not to consider these parts also as ensembles making a
classifier itself more flexible?
We expect that classification teams completed from different
feature selection, distance evaluation, and classification methods
will be more accurate than any ensemble of known classifiers
alone, and we focus our research and implementation on this
assumption.

Yevgeniy Bodyanskiy

Volodymyr Kushnaryov

Online Stochastic Faults Prediction

Control Systems Research Laboratory,
AI Department, Kharkov National University of
Radioelectronics. Head: Prof. E. Bodyanskiy. Carries
out research on development of mathematical and
algorithmic support of systems for control, diagnostics,
forecasting and emulation:
1. Neural network architectures and real-time
algorithms for observation and sensor data processing
(smoothing, filtering, prediction) under substantial
uncertainty conditions;
2. Neural networks in polyharmonic sequence
analysis with unknown non-stationary parameters;
Bodyanskiy Y., Vorobyov S, Recurrent Neural Network
Detecting Changes in the Properties of Non-Linear
Stochastic Sequences, Automation and Remote Control, V.
1, No. 7, 2000, pp. 1113-1124.
Bodyanskiy Y., Vorobyov S., Cichocki A., Adaptive Noise
Cancellation for Multi-Sensory Signals, Fluctuation and
Noise Letters, V. 1, No. 1, 2001, pp. 12-23.
Bodyanskiy Y., Kolodyazhniy V., Stephan A. An Adaptive
Learning Algorithm for a Neuro-Fuzzy Network, In: B.
Reusch (ed.), Computational Intelligence. Theory and
Applications, Berlin-Heidelberg-New York: Springer, 2001,
pp. 68-75.

3. Analysis of chaotic time series; adaptive algorithms

and neural network architectures for early fault
detection and diagnostics of stochastic processes;
4. Adaptive multivariable predictive control
algorithms for stochastic systems under various types
of constraints;
5. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy control of non-stationary
nonlinear systems;
6. Adaptive forecasting of non-stationary nonlinear
time series by means of neuro-fuzzy networks;
7. Fast real-time adaptive learning procedures for
various types of neural and neuro-fuzzy networks.

Existing Tools
Most existing (neuro-) fuzzy systems used for fault
diagnosis or classification are based on offline learning
with the use of genetic algorithms or modifications of
the error back propagation. When the number of features
and possible fault situations is large, tuning of the
classifying system becomes very time consuming.
Moreover, such systems perform very poorly in high
dimensions of the input space, so special modifications
of the known architectures are required.

Neuro-Fuzzy Fault Diagnostics

Successful application of the neuro-fuzzy synergism to

fault diagnosis of complex systems demands development
of an online diagnosing system that quickly learns from
examples even with a large amount of data, and maintains
high processing speed and high classification accuracy
when the number of features is large as well.

Challenge: Growing (Learning)

Probabilistic Neuro-Fuzzy Network (1)

input layer,
n inputs

1-st hidden layer,

N neurons

2-nd hidden layer,

(m+1) elements

output layer,
m divisors

Bodyanskiy Ye., Gorshkov Ye., Kolodyazhniy V., Wernstedt J., Probabilistic Neuro-Fuzzy Network with
Non-Conventional Activation Functions, In: Knowledge-Based Intelligent Information & Engineering
Systems, Proceedings of Seventh International Conference KES2003, 35 September, Oxford, United
Kingdom, LNAI, Springer-Verlag, 2003.
Bodyanskiy Ye., Gorshkov Ye., Kolodyazhniy V. Resource-Allocating Probabilistic Neuro-Fuzzy Network,
In: Proceedings of International Conference on Fuzzy Logic and Technology, 1012 September, Zittau,
Germany, 2003.

Challenge: Growing (Learning)

Unique
Tested on real data in comparison with
Probabilistic
(2)
combination
classical Neuro-Fuzzy
probabilistic neural network Network
of features

Implements fuzzy reasoning and classification (fuzzy classification

network);
network
Creates automatically neurons based on training set (growing
network);
network
Learns free parameters of the network based on training set
(learning network);
network
Guarantees high precision of classification based on fast learning
(high- performance network);
network
Able to perform with huge volumes of data with limited
computational resources (powerful and economical network);
network
Able to work in real-time (real-time network).
network

Tests for Neuro-Fuzzy Algorithms

Industrial Ontologies Group (Kharkovs Branch), Data
Mining Research Group and Control Systems Research
Laboratory of the Artificial Intelligence Department of
Kharkov National University of Radioelectronics have
essential theoretical and practical experience in implementing
neuro-fuzzy
approach
and
specifically
Real-Time
Probabilistic Neuro-Fuzzy Systems for Simulation,
Modeling, Forecasting, Diagnostics, Clustering, Control .
We are interested in cooperation with Metso in that area
and we are ready to present the performance of our
algorithms on real data taken from any of Metsos products
to compare our algorithms with existing in Metso
algorithms.

Inventions we can offer (1)

Method of intelligent preventive or predictive diagnostics and
forecasting of technical condition of industrial equipment,
machines, devices, systems, etc. in real time based on analysis
of non-stationary stochastic signals (e.g. from sensors of
temperature, pressure, current, shifting, frequency, energy
consumption, and other parameters with threshold values).
The method is based on advanced data mining techniques,
which utilize fuzzy-neuro technologies, and differs from
existing tools by flexible self-organizing network structure and
by optimization of computational resources while learning.

Inventions we can offer (2)

Method of intelligent real-time preventive or predictive
diagnostics and forecasting of technical condition of
industrial equipment, machines, devices, systems, etc.
based on analysis of signals with non-stationary and
non-multiplied periodical components (e.g. from
sensors of vibration, noise, frequencies of rotation,
current, voltage, etc.).
The method is based on optimization of computational
resources while learning because of intelligent reducing
of the number of signal components being analyzed.

Inventions we can offer (3)

Method and mechanism of optimal control of
dosage and real-time infusion of anti-wear oil
additives into industrial machines based on its
real-time condition monitoring.

Summary of problems we can solve

Rather global system for condition monitoring and preventive maintenance based
on OntoServ.Net (global, agent-based, ontology-based, Semantic Web servicesbased, semantic P2P search-based) technologies, modern and advanced datamining methods and tools with knowledge creation, warehousing, and updating
during not only devices lifetime, but also utilizing (for various maintenance
needs) knowledge obtained afterwards (various testing and investigations
techniques other than information taken from living devices sensors) from
broken-down, worn out or aged components of the same type.

Recently Performed Case Studies (1)

Semen
Simkin

Ontology Development for Gas Compressing Equipment

Diagnostics Realized by Neural Networks
Available in: http://www.cs.jyu.fi/ai/OntoGroup/docs/July2003.pdf
NN and Ontology using for Diagnostic
Neural Network
SENSOR

SIGNAL

Diagnostic out
Training

The creating ontology classes

instance program

Diagnosing

12

The subclasses and their slots forming and

instances filling by the information is
carried out automatically with the program
on J ava. The filling occurs from RDBMS
Oracle, which contains in the actualized
base using in UkrTransGas
.
UkrTransGas.

Oracle

J ava
Program

Ontology
15

Volodymyr
Kushnaryov

Recently Performed Case Studies (2)

The use of Ontologies for Faults and State Description of GasTransfer Units

Konstantin
Tatarnikov

Available in: http://www.cs.jyu.fi/ai/OntoGroup/docs/July2003.pdf

Volodymyr
Kushnaryov

Conclusion
Industrial Ontologies Research Group (University of
Jyvaskyla), which is piloting the OntoServ.Net concept
of the Global Semantic Web - Based System for
Industrial Maintenance, has also powerful branches in
Kharkov (e.g. IOG-Kharkovs Branch, Control Systems
Research Laboratory, Data Mining Research Group,
etc.) with experts and experiences in various and
challenging data mining and knowledge discovery,
online diagnostics, forecasting and control, models
learning and integration, etc. methods, which can be and
reasonable to be successfully utilized within going-on
cooperation between Metso and Industrial Ontologies
Group.