4-1Introduction

4-2Sample Spaces and

Probability
4-3The Addition Rules for
Probability
4-4The Multiplication Rules
and Conditional Probability

 Determine the sample spaces

and find the probability of an
event using classical probability.
Find the probability of an event
using empirical probability.
Find the probability of compounds
events using the addition rules.

 Find the probability of

compounds events using the
multiplication rules.
Find the conditional probability
of an event.

4-1 Introduction
What is probability?
Probability is the chance of
occurrence of a particular
event.

Probability is measured on a scale from

0 to 1.
0

Event can
never
happen

Event is
absolutely certain
to happen

4-2 Sample Spaces and

Probability
A probability experiment is a process
that leads to well-defined results
called outcomes.
An outcome is the result of a single
trial of a probability experiment.
Sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.

4-2 Sample Spaces Example

Experime
ntToss
a
coin
Roll
a
die

Sample
space
Head,
tail

1,2,3,4,
5,6

4-2 Event
Event consists of a set of outcomes of
a probability experiment.
An event with one outcome is called
a simple event.
Event that consists of more than one
outcome is called a compound event.

4-2 Simple Event

Experiment: Select a day of a week

and getting Tuesday.
Outcome: Tuesday (One outcome)

4-2 Compound Event

Experiment: Roll a die and getting

odd number.
Outcomes: 1, 3, 5 (Three
outcomes)

4-2 Tree diagram

A tree diagram can be used to
find all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment.
H
First
Toss

T
Second

T
H
T

4-2 Type of Probability

Classical
Probabili
ty

V
S

Empirica
l
Probabili
ty

4-2 Formula for Classical

Probability
Classical probability assumes
that all outcomes in the sample
space are equally likely to occur.
Equally likely events are events
that have the same probability
of occurring.

4-2 Formula for Classical

Probability
Probability of an event E
=

Number of outcomes in E

Total number of outcomes in the

sample space

n(E
)
(S =
Pn
(E)
)

Answer a multiple choice question

with four
choices (A, B, C and D).
The probability of occurrence
for each outcome is the same which is
1/4.

Deliver a baby. The gender for a

baby can be either male or female.
The probability of getting male or
female
will always be 1/2.

4-2 Classical Probability

Example
An ordinary die is thrown. Find the
probability that the number obtained
(a) is less than 5.
(b) is a multiple of 3.
(c) is 9.

4-2 Classical Probability

Solutions:
(a) The outcomes are 1, 2, 3, and 4.

P (less than 5) = 4/6 = 2/3

(b) The outcomes are 3 and 6.
P (multiple of 3) = 2/6 = 1/3
(c) It is impossible to get a 9 when a die is
rolled.
P (9) = 0

4-2 Classical Probability

Question:
A card is drawn at random from an
ordinary pack containing 52 playing
cards. Find the probability that the
card drawn
(a) is the diamond
(b) is the four of spades

4-2 Empirical Probability

Some of the outcomes are not equally
likely thus their probabilities need to be
determined through empirical method.
Empirical probability estimate the
probability of an outcome based on the
actual experience, observation, or
experiment.

4-2 Formula for Empirical

Probability
Given a frequency distribution, the
probability
of an event being a given class is
Frequency for the
class
P (E)Total
= frequencies in the
distribution
f

=n

4-2 Empirical Probability

Example:
In a sample of 50 people, 21
had type O blood, 22 had type
A blood, 5 had type B blood,
and 2 had type AB blood. Set
up a frequency distribution.

4-2 Empirical Probability

Type
A
B
AB
O

Frequency
22
5
2
21
n = 50

4-2 Empirical Probability

Find the following probabilities based
on the frequency distribution :
(a) A person has type O blood.
(b) A person has type A or type B blood.
(c) A person has neither type A nor type O
blood.
(d) A person does not have type AB blood.

4-2 Empirical Probability

Solutions:
(a) P(O) = 21/50
(b) P(A or B) = 22/50 + 5/50 = 27/50
(c) P(neither A nor O) = 5/50 + 2/50
= 7/50
(d) P(not AB) = 1 - 2/50 = 48/50

4-2 Empirical Probability

Question
A ball is drawn from a box containing
10 red, 15 white, 5 green, and 5
black. Find the probability that the
ball is
(a)black
(b)red or green
(c)not white

4-2 Complementary Events

The complement of an event E
is the set of outcomes in the
sample space that are not
included in the outcomes of
event E. The complement of E is
denoted by E (read as E bar).

4-2 Complementary Events

Venn Diagram

P(E
)
P(S) =
1
(a) Simple

P(E
)
P(E
)
(b) P(E) = 1-

4-2

Rule for Complementary

Events

PP(E)
(E)==11--PP
(E)
(E)
or
or
PP(E)
(E)==11--PP
(E)
(E)
or
or
PP(E)
(E)++PP(E)
(E)==

4-2 Complementary Events

Examples:
Find the complement of each event.
(a) Rolling a die and getting 4.
(b) Selecting a month and getting a
month that begins with a J.
(c) Selecting a day of the week and
getting a weekday.

4-2 Complementary Events

Solutions:
(a) Getting 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6
(b) Getting February, March, April,
May, August, September, October,
November, or December.
(c) Getting Saturday or Sunday.

4-3 The Addition Rules for

Probability
Two events are mutually
exclusive if they
cannot occur at the same time
(i.e. they
have no outcomes in common).

4-3 Addition Rules 1

When two events A and B are
mutually
exclusive, the probability that A or B
will
occur is
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)

4-3 The Addition Rules for

Probability

P (A)

P
(B)

P (S)
=1

Mutually exclusive events

4-3 Addition Rules 1

Example 1:
A box contains 3 chocolate doughnuts, 4
jelly doughnuts, and 5 strawberry
doughnuts. If a person select one doughnut
randomly, find the probability that it is either
a chocolate doughnut or a strawberry
doughnuts.
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)

4-3 Addition Rules 1

Solution:
P (chocolate or strawberry)
= P (chocolate) + P (strawberry)
= 3/12 + 5/12
= 8/12
= 2/3

4-3 Addition Rules 1

Example 2:
A day of the week is selected at
random. Find the probability that it is
a weekend.
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)

4-3 Addition Rules 1

Solution:
P (Saturday or Sunday)
= P (Saturday) + P (Sunday)
= 1/7 + 1/7
= 2/7

In a conference, there are 12

researchers,
10 scientists, and 8 educators. If an
attendant is selected, find the
probability of getting a researcher
or an educator.

4-3 Addition Rules 2

When two events A and B are not
mutually exclusive, the
or
probability that A or B will occur is
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) P (A and B)

4-3 Addition Rules 2

P (A and
B)
P
(A)

P
(B)

P (S) = 1

Non-mutually exclusive events

4-3 Addition Rules 2

Example:
In a hospital unit there are eight
nurses and five physicians. Seven
nurses and three physicians are
females. If a staff person is
selected, find the probability that
the subject is a nurse or a male.

4-3 Addition Rules 2

STAFF
NURSES
PHYSICIA
NS
TOTAL

FEMALE
S
7

MALES

TOTAL

10

13

4-3 Addition Rules 2

Solution:
P (nurse or male)
= P (nurse) + P (male) - P
(male nurse)
= 8/13 + 3/13 - 1/13
= 10/13

In a group of 30 students all study at

least one of the subjects physics and
biology, 20 attend the physics class
and 21 attend the biology class. Find
the probability that a student chosen
at random studies both physics and
biology.

In a statistics class there are 18 juniors

and 10 seniors; 6 of the seniors are
females, and 12 of the juniors are
males. If a student is selected at
random, find the probability of selecting:
(a)A junior or a female
(b)A senior or a female
(c)A junior or a male

4-4 The Multiplication Rules and

Conditional Probability
Two events A and B are
independent if the fact that A
occurs does not affect the probability
of B occurring.
Example: Rolling a die and getting a
6, and then rolling another die and
getting a 3 are independent events.

4-4 Multiplication Rules 1

When two events A and B are
independent, the
probability
of
or
both occurring is
P (A and B) = P (A) P
(B)

4-4 Multiplication Rules 1

Example 1:
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a head on the coin and
a 4 on the die.

4-4 Multiplication Rules 1

Solution:
P (head and 4)
= P(head) P(4)
= 1/2 1/6
= 1/12

or

4-4 Multiplication Rules 1

Example 2:
A Harris poll found that 46% of Americans say they suffer
great stress at least once a week. If three people are
selected at random, find the probability that all three will
or
say that they suffer great stress at least once a week.

4-4 Multiplication Rules 1

Solution:
Let S denote stress. Then
P (S and S and S) = P (S) P (S) P (S)
or (0.46) (0.46)
= (0.46)
= 0.097

4-4 Multiplication Rules 1

Example 3:
The probability that a specific medical test will
show positive is 0.32. If four person are tested,
find the probability that all four will show positive.

4-4 Multiplication Rules 1

Solution:
Let T denote a positive test result. Then
P (T and T and T and T)
or
= P (T) P (T) P (T) P (T)
= (0.32)4
= 0.010.

Two types of metal A and B, which have

been treated with a special coating of
paint have probabilities of 1/4 and 1/3
respectively of lasting four years without
rusting. Find the probability that
(a)Both last four years without rusting
(b)At least one of them lasts four years
without rusting.

At a local university 54% of incoming

first-year student have computers. If
three students are selected at random,
find the probability that
(a)All have computers
(b) None have computers
(c) At least one has computer

4-4 The Multiplication Rules and

Conditional Probability
When the outcome or occurrence of the first
event affects the outcome or occurrence of
the second event in such
a way that the
or
probability is changed, the events are said to
be dependent.
Example: Having high grades and getting a
scholarship are dependent events.

4-4 The Multiplication Rules and

Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event B in
relationship to an event A is the probability that
an event B occurs after event A has already
r
occurred.
The notation for the conditional probability of B
given A is P(B|A).
Note: This does not mean B divided by A.

4-4 Multiplication Rules 2

When two events A and B are
dependent, the probability of
or
both occurring is

P (A and B) = P (A) P (B|A)

4-4 The Multiplication Rules

and Conditional Probability
Example 1:
In a shipment of 25 refrigerators, two are defective. If
two refrigerators are randomly selected and tested,
find the probability that both are defective if the first
one is not replaced after it has been tested.

P (A and B) = P (A) P (B|A)

4-4 The Multiplication Rules

and Conditional Probability
Solution:
Let D denote defective. Since the events are dependent,
P (D1 and D2) = P (D1) P (D2|D1)
= (2/25) (1/24)or
= 2/600
= 1/300

P (A and B) = P (A) P (B|A)

4-4 The Multiplication Rules

and Conditional Probability
Example 2:
A person owned a collection of 30 CDs, of which
5 are country music. If 2 CDs are selected at
random, one by one without replacement, find
the probability that both are country music.

4-4 The Multiplication Rules

and Conditional Probability
Solution:
Let C denote country music. Since the events are dependent,
P (C1 and C2) = P (C1) P (C2|C1)
= (5/30) (4/29)or
= 20/870
= 2/87

P (A and B) = P (A) P (B|A)

4-4 The Multiplication Rules

and Conditional Probability
Example 3:
Box 1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball.
Box 2 contains 3 blueorballs and 1 red ball.
A coin is tossed. If it falls heads up, box 1
is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls
tail up, box 2 is selected and a ball is
drawn. Find the probability of selecting a
red ball.

4-4 The Multiplication Rules

and Conditional Probability
BALL

BOX
P(R|B1)

1/2
P(B1)
P(B2)

Red

1/3

Blue 1/2 1/3 = 1/6

1/4

Red

3/4

Blue 1/2 3/4= 3/8

1/2 2/3 = 1/3

Box 1
P(B|B1)

P(R|B2)

1/2

2/3

1/2 1/4 = 1/8

Box 2
P(R|B2)

4-4 The Multiplication Rules

and Conditional Probability
Solution:
Since red ball can be obtained from box 1 and box 2.
P(red) = 1/3 + 1/8
= 8/24 + 3/24
= 11/24

A box contains 6 red pens and 3 blue

pens. A pen is selected at random, the
colour is noted and the pen is retained.
After this, a second pen is selected and
the colour is noted. Find the probabilities
of obtaining
i) both red pens
ii) two pens of different colours

4-4 Conditional Probability Formula

The probability that second event B occurs given
that the first event A has occurred can be found
by dividing the probability that both events
occurred by the probability that the first event
has occurred. The formula is

P (A and B)
(B|A) =
P (A)

4-4 Conditional`Probability
Example:
For married couples the probability that the husband has
passed his driving test is 7/10 and the probability that the
wife has passed her driving test is 1/2. The probability that
both of them passed the driving test is 7/15. Find the
probability that the husband has passed, given that the wife
has passed.

4-4 Conditional Probability

Solution
P(H) = 7/10; P(W) =1/2; P (H and W)
= 7/15
P (H|W) = P (H and W) / P(W)
= 7/15 / 1/2
= 14/15