THE GROWING SIGNIFICANCE

OF NONMARITAL FERTILITY IN
THE PHILIPPINES
M. Midea M. Kabamalan
University of the Philippines Population Institute
John B. Casterline
Ohio State University

11th National Statistics Convention

4-5 October 2010, Shangri-La Hotel, Mandaluyong City

Context

Slow fertility decline

3

7.0
6.0

6.0

5.0
4.0

Total Fertility Rate

3.0

5.2

5.1
4.4

4.1

3.7

3.5

3.3

2.0
1.0
0.0

1973 1978 1983 1986 1993 1998 2003 2008

Age-specific fertility has declined but the

relative declines are lowest among the
youngest age groups
1973
1993

1978
1998

1983
2003

1986
2008

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
15-19

20-24

25-29

Source: NSO & ORC Macro 2004; NSO 2009.

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

Decreasing marriage,
Increasing cohabitation
5

70.0

Males

Females

60.0
50.0
40.0
Percent

30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0

1990

1995

2000

Common-law/living-in
Data for 15 years old and older in 2000

1990

1995

Legally married

2000

Illegitimate births are

increasing
25.0
20.0
15.0
Illegitimacy ratio*

10.0
5.0
0.0
197019751979199920002001200220032004

* Percent of live births that are illegitimate

Source: Vital Statistics Reports for specified years; Data for the period 1980 to 1998 are not available

Acceptance of nonmarital births

7

In 2002

15 % of youth say that it is alright for a

woman to get pregnant even if she is not
married to the father of the child

59 % of the youth think that the community

would accept children of unmarried couples

66 % of youth said that an unmarried

woman who got pregnant by a man she
likes but with whom she has not discussed
marriage should have and keep the baby
without marrying (58 % in 1994)
7

Objective of this paper

To estimate the proportion of births

contributed by those living together or
the never married.

Data
9

2008 NDHS

13,594 women

1993 NDS

15,029

Estimating Fertility Rates

10

m
i

l
i

n
i

b
b
b
fi

wi
wi
wi

where:
fi = fertility rate for age group i = 15-19, 20-24, ,
45-49
bi = births
w = number of woman-years of exposure
m = formally married
l = living together
n = never married

Estimating Conditional Fertility Rates

11

m
i
m
i

b
c
w
m
i

l
i
l
i

b
c
w
l
i

n
i
n
i

b
c
w
n
i

where:
ci = conditional fertility rate for
age group i = 15-19, 20-24, , 45-49
bi = births
w = number of woman-years of exposure
m = formally married
l = living together
n = never married

Estimating Fertility Rates

12

w
fi
wi

m
i

m
i

w
w
l
n

ci
ci
wi
wi
l
i

n
i

where:
fi = fertility rate for age group i = 15-19, 20-24, ,
45-49
ci = conditional fertility rate (see previous slide)
w = number of woman-years of exposure
m = formally married
l = living together
n = never married

Results

14

Contributions to the TFR of births to women

living together or never married increased 1993
to 2008
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%

1993

2008

Philippines

Married

1993

2008

1993

Urban

Living Together

2008
Rural

Never Married

 especially among the younger women

15

1993

100%

2008

80%
60%

% contribution to ASFR

40%
20%
0%

Married

Living Together

Never Married

Declines in fertility could have been higher if

fertility among the not married is lower
16

1993

100%
80%

2008

5.5

5
4.5

60%

3.9

40%

4
3.5

2.8
2.3

20%
0%

2
1

<HS

HS

>HS

Married
Never Married
* In their marital status group

<HS

HS

Living Together
TFR

>HS

17

Rate of childbearing among women

living together is higher than for the
married
0.60
0.50
0.40

Conditional fertility rates

0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00

< 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45 +

1993 M
2008 M

1993 LT
2008 LT

1993 NM
2008 NM

18

The rate of childbearing of women

living together is highest among those
residing in rural areas
0.5
0.4
0.324

0.316

0.3

0.269
0.218

0.2

Conditional fertility rates

0.194
0.123

0.1
0.0

Married

0.149

0.249

0.008

Living together

0.005

0.011

Never married

0.002

19

The difference in the rate of

childbearing between women living
together and married is highest
among the high educated
0.5
0.4
0.319

0.324

0.3

Conditional fertility rates

0.231
0.2

0.150

0.125

0.125

0.1
0.013
0.0

Married

< HS

Living together

0.011

HS

Never married

0.009

> HS

To summarize
20

The contribution of births of women

living together or never married to the
TFR increased from 1993 to 2008,
especially among the young.

The rate of childbearing among women

living together is higher than women
formally married

Declines in fertility could have been

higher if fertility among the non married
were much less.

Next step
21

Using the expressions presented above,

decompose the change in fertility
between 1993 and 2008 into
contributions of

marital status composition (never married

vs. living together vs. married)
rates of fertility by marital status
their interaction

Thank you!

THE GROWING SIGNIFICANCE

OF NONMARITAL FERTILITY IN
THE PHILIPPINES
M. Midea M. Kabamalan
University of the Philippines Population Institute
John B. Casterline
Ohio State University

11th National Statistics Convention

4-5 October 2010, Shangri-La Hotel, Mandaluyong City