Statistics 270 - Lecture 11

Last day/Today: More discrete probability distributions

Assignment 4: Chapter 3: 5, 7,17, 25, 27, 31, 33, 37, 39,
41, 45, 47, 51, 65, 67, 77, 79

Poisson Distribution

A random variable, X, has a Poisson distribution with parameter

(>0) if the pmf is

For x=0, 1, 2,

Poisson Distribution

Is this a pmf?

Poisson Distribution

E(X)

V(X)

Poisson Distribution

Observations:

Example

Suppose the number of drivers who travel between a particular

origin and destination during a designated time period has a
Poisson distribution with parameter =20

Find the probability that ten drivers are observed

Find the probability that at most 10 drivers are observed

Poisson Approximation to the Binomial

Suppose that the random variable X has a Bin(N,p) distribution

and n!1 and p!0 so that np=. The Bin(n,p) ! Pois(\lambda).

So, in any binomial experiment where n is large and p is small

then the binomial distribution is approximately the same as the
Poisson distribution where =np

Can us Poisson distribution to compute binomial probabilities

Poisson Approximation to the Binomial

Proof:

Poisson Approximation to the Binomial

Rule of thumb:

Example

A rare blood disease occurs in a population with frequency 0.001

If n people are tested, what is the probability that at least two

have the rare disease

Example

n=100

n=1000