Debating Effective Solution for

Water Constrained Future of

Pakistan

Dr. Zaigham Habib

Water Debate

1.Pakistan in Global Context

2.Natural Water Scenario
3.Understanding Future Constraints
4.Some of the Solutions

Need for a Debate

Debate, dialogue and consultation - different
communication processes
Debate (argue, question, disagree, learn)
scientific & issue specific, leads to opinion
formation & selection of solutions
Dialogue (discourse, convey) bringing close
diverse interests and stakeholders
Consultation (discuss, exchange ideas, get 2nd
opinion) - a tool to refine solutions

Lack of Debates in water Sector

Argue, question, disagree formulate solutions and options

1. Diverse technical opinions are least discussed

leading to limited solutions and narrow
perceptions
2. Scientific options not taken neutrally
3. Too much consumed by the fear of talking
about bad solutions/ options
4. A dilemma of not accepting scientific diversity

Fresh Water Global Picture

Where is this 0.5 % of fresh water?

10^6 km3 stored in aquifers.
11.9 103 km3 net rainfall falling after accounting for evaporation.
91*103 km3 in natural lakes
5 103 km3 in man made storage -7 fold increase since 1950.
2,120 km3 in rivers constantly replaced from rainfall and melting snow
and ice.

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BS ie rC Ua rmuL rebguotvndieaiya

mS MinBgaOlIdhspimvoaerensl 3 / p e rs o n / y e a r 2 0
Physical water scarcity -Per Capita Gross Renewable water 2000

20000

16000

12000

8000

4000

U ganda
R w anda
A n g o la
M o z a m b iq u e
C a p e V e rd e
Kenya
C a m e ro o n
E ritre a
M a la w i
F iji
L a tv ia
H o n d u ra s
T a n z a n ia
J a m a ic a
G u a te m a la
M o n g o lia
E l S a lv a d o r
S lo v a k ia
E q u a to ria l G u in e a
N ic a ra g u a
Panam a
Ire la n d
Sw eden
Is ra e l
B ra z il
P h ilip p in e s
Q a ta r
Lebanon
M o ro c c o
C h in a
Laos
N e w Z e a la n d
T u rk e y
F ra n c e
In d ia
M yanm ar
B e lg iu m
C uba
A rg e n tin a
G re e c e
G e o rg ia
B u lg a ria
L ith u a n ia
Sudan
P a k is ta n
M a c e d o n ia
T h a ila n d
U n ite d S ta te s o f
A z e rb a ija n
K a z a k h s ta n

m 3 / p e rs o n /y e a r

A water based Economy --Per Capita Withdrawal

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

Irrigation per Hectare close to World Average

Fresh water withdrawals per hectare
30000
25000

m 3/ ha/ year

20000
15000
10000
5000
0

Physical and economic water scarcity

Per capita
Eastern rivers
Groundwater catchments

Some Facts
Area: 803,940 km2
Population: 160
million
Climate: Arid;
variable rainfall,
river inflows &
groundwater

Gross Available Water

Rainfall

= Avg. 45 MAF (30 to 90 MAF)

Rivers Inflow = 135 MAF (average 1978 2006)

Groundwater = 50 to 60 MAF

Decrease of Eastern Inflow from India

as a result of Indus Water Treaty

Indus Rivers Annual Outflow versus Inflow 1976 - 2006

100
90

1976-86

Outflow below kotri - MAF

80

1986-96
1996-2006

70

R = 0.86

60
50
40
30

R = 0.72

20

R2 = 0.94

10
0
90

100

110

120

130

Inflow in MAF

140

150

160

170

180

190

Tubewell Growth in Pakistan Since 1950

400

Thousands

600

Total reported
Tubewells

2007

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

200

1950

No of wells

800

Changed Ecology along the

Rivers
The riverine natural vegetation and
non-irrigated agriculture is replaced
by the well irrigation.

of Inflow + rain

R iv er Los s es as a func tion

Computed net Losses rivers and link canals as a

function of Gross Inflow

R 2 = 0.75
-25

-50
120

170
220
270
Gross Annual Inflow (Riv er+rain)
'selected y ears 1974 to 1997

320

Losses 1998-2000

370

Increased uses
from rivers and
decreased
drainage inflow
can cause
local floods

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

Dep th to w ater table (cm )

Average Groundwater Levels Punjab

350

Groundwater Aquifer
Many issues
Actual potential

400

Limited monitoring grid

Sustainability of use
patterns

450

High value for farmers

350
M AILSI

450

550

650

L-DEPALPUR

J -00

J -9 8

J -96

J -9 4

J-92

J -9 0

J-88

J -8 6

J-84

J -8 2

J-80

Average aquife r depth - pre monsoon

J - 78

F ro m t h e g ro u n d in c m

500

Control mechanism

Demand in 2025 crossing total availability

Water Constrained Future

1. Permanent Physical Scarcity - population
2. Most of the water has already been utilized
3. Natural water cushions depleting
4. Water based economy high manpower, low
productivity
5. Hydropower, a most efficient user dependent on
surface storages
6. New water use sectors are emerging
7. Skewed spatio-temporal water availability and
potential
8. Climate Changes

Towards Solutions

Meeting demands of Socio economic and

environment sectors
Solution in hand - surface storage
Good Scope for hydropower
Limited water for agriculture from storage
Domestic & infrastructure big claimers in future
Environmental needs an essential area to be
considered

Expanding Management Approaches

Conventional
Linear cause-effect solutions
Scope limited, problems deep-rooted
Replicability assuming neutral Context
(conservation & drainage technologies, farm practices, crops selection etc.)
Complex drivers of change and management

Comprehensive adaptive
Manage the Cause as well
Protect resource base and long term resilience
Effective demand management
Diversification of water-intensive production

Protect Natural Water Cycle and Resource

Base in quantity
Trans-boundary waters - expanding strategy
Sacrosanct Indus Water Treaty cannot stop India from
planning 11 projects on western rivers;
Establish need of western flood water in Pakistan
Let people talk about negative impacts of IWT on Pakistan
side

Natural Water cycle must be maintained for resilience

Protect all water bodies; rivers, lakes and flood plains
Groundwater aquifer artificial recharge in fresh zone
minimize/drain effluent in saline area

Quality Management and control

Many Grey Areas
Industrial and urban effluents to rivers and lakes
treat at source, reuse

waste water treatment set examples

Drainage management lessons learned?
Drainage functions of rivers and main canals
Groundwater quality exact issue ?
Leaching of agri lands
Excess water used in saline areas

Productivity of water in Agriculture

Conservation - canal lining big initiative, 50% complete
Field level water efficient technologies new initiative
Value addition increasing trends
Talking about green to gene revolution

Yet,
The yield of major crops stagnant
Uncertainty for farmers has increased
Public sector investments increasing and essential

Food security & Agriculture

National policy about produce, market and trade
Food security important because of declining
production of wheat in USA & Australia,
Within Pakistan traditional grain areas are
shifting towards oil seeds, vegetables, fruits &
maize
A link between livelihood oriented small marginal
farming and food grain production consistent
Potential of rain-fed and saline areas

Average Crop Yields in Pakistan and other Countries tons/hectare 2005

wheat
Rice
Cotton
sugarcane
Maize
World

2.91

4.0

1.95

65.6

4.75

Punjab India

4.39

3.40

0.31

60.96

2.49

India average

2.67

3.0

0.8

69.95

1.9

China

4.23

6.27

3.38

66.01

5.1

Egypt

6.01

9.5

2.6

61.95

8.0

Pakistan

2.59

2.3

48.91

2.85

Pinyari

Lined Canal
Fulili

Nara
Kalri

Khairpur East
Rohri

Dadu
Khairpur West

Rice canal

Ghotki
North West

PAT & Desert

Begari

Rangpur

D.G.Khan
Muzzafargar

Bahawal
Panjnad

Abbasia

Qaim

Fordwah
Eastern Sadiqia

Mailsi
Pakpatan

Haveli Sidhnai

L.B.D.C

Thal

U.J.C
L.J.C

LCC

L.C.C West

DPR LOW
L.C.C East

C.B.D.C.
DPR UP

U.C.C
M-R-LINK

Water depth for CCA (mm)

Canal Supplies in mm

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
PAT &
Begari
Ghotki
North West
Rice canal
Dadu
Khairpur
Khairpur
Rohri
Nara
Kalri
Lined Canal
Fulili
Pinyari

U.C.C
M-R-LINK
C.B.D.C.
DPR UP
DPR LOW
L.C.C East
L.C.C West
LCC
U.J.C
L.J.C
Thal
L.B.D.C
Haveli
Mailsi
Pakpatan
Fordwah
Eastern
Qaim
Abbasia
Bahawal
Panjnad
D.G.Khan
Muzzafargar
Rangpur

Actual Et in mm

Evapotranspiration from Gross Command area

1600

1200

800

400

Meeting Agriculture Targets

Economically feasible agriculture model for
small farms (inputs, technologies, markets)
Protect high efficiency groundwater -recharge
Crop zoning
Low water use and salinity tolerant crops
Livestock sub-sector
New opportunities for rural labor force shifting
from farming; agro-based industry, local
business

Domestic, infrastructure supplies

A big future Challenge
Safe drinking water promised to all
Municipal supplies to big cities, semiurban and advance rural areas
New infrastructure and down
developments

Scenario Potable I: Only drinking water requirements

Potable-I Min.

m illion g allon s p er d ay

750

Potable-I Max.

650
550

Urban = 2.5 gallon/cap/day

rural = 2.0

450
350

1.5 gallon/c/d

250
150
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Million gallons per day

14000

Sanitation scenarios based on minimum survival

level and high water demand assumptions

12000
10000

Sanitation min. requirements

Sanitation high requirement

8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

From where this water will come?

1. Main storages needs for allocation,
transfer from agriculture
From Existing canal system some
allocations in saline areas, more will be
required for new projects
Local surface resources: small rivers,
lakes replacement or protection
Groundwater largest access, quality
and quantity threatened

Approach for domestic supply

management
Protect quality of all water resources
Priority to local resources
Allocate and account all uses

Demand side measures can not be postponed

Capacity of household appliances
Rain harvesting wherever possible
Control on infrastructure, commercial uses
Household waste management
Pricing

Regional Context
NWFP: high allocations after seventies, natural

drainage collapsing, pollution of water bodies, local

water access.

Lower Indus: Saline, waterlogged, low rainfall,

riverine cultivation not sustainable, shift towards

perennial crops, livelihood dependence on wetlands,
lakes & unallocated resources high, demand for delta

Punjab: water shortage in cash crop areas,

cultivation extending outside canal irrigated area,

groundwater depleting, recharge sources decreasing,
rivers pollution and dry conditions.

Balochistan: groundwater fast depleting, local

harvesting not reliable, domestic and sanitation

Sustainable Future
Protectionist approach (how, where, why ???)
Actions at regional, local and users levels
(water-wise societies, incentives, capacities and
regulation)
National capacity to define issues and select
sustainable solutions (drivers of management)
Knowledge to integrate empirical trends and
scientific models (who needs it? Public sector,
users, donors?)

Thank You