TRAVEL DEMAND

MODELLING

KAEA 4346: WEEK 3

FOUR STEP TRAVEL

DEMAND MODEL (FSTDM)

DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
Autos per household
Income level
Household size

NETWORK DATA
Highway network
Transit network

URBAN TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING PROCESS (UTP)
Consists of 9 steps
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

Coding and Zoning

Inventory Studies
Travel Studies
Forecasts for the Horizontal Year
Trip General Analysis
Trip Distribution Analysis
Modal Split Analysis
Network Assignment Analysis
Evaluation

1. CODING AND ZONING

Urban area are divided into zone
Each is given a number (e.g Zone 1, Zone 2,
..etc.)
Network is coded as a series of links
Link begins and ends at a node

LINK-NODE MAP FOR HIGHWAY

SYSTEM

Link-node maps are the starting point for the 4-step

transportation demand forecasting process

GRAPHICAL WAY OF
UNDERSTANDING THE 4-STEP
DEMAND FORECASTING PROCESS
200 trips from
zone 46 to
zone 29

1000 trips
attracted
1000 trips
generated

70% this route

25% this route

Auto total: 95%

Public transit: 5%

TRIP GENERATION

DEMOGRAPHICS AND TRIP MAKING FACTORS

AFFECTED BY LAND USE
The land use pattern may affect
Car ownership rates
Household size and composition
Number of daily trips
Mode of trips
Length of trips

Norman W. Garrick

2. INVENTORY STUDIES
Each zone is classified according to
land use (Residential, Commercial, Industrial)
Land use & Socio-economic characteristics of
population
Link capacity, Link volume, Link travel time

3. TRAVEL STUDIES
Origin-Destination Survey (O-D Survey)
Household characteristics
no. of persons who live there
nos. of cars
occupation of the head
income etc.
Location of the origin and destination of the trip
(where trips begin & end)
Time at trip started & ended (when trips begin &
end)
Mode & route of travel
Purpose of trip

Origin-Destination Data:

O-D Survey Technique

Home interviews
Telephone interviews
On-board transit surveys
Mailed questionnaires
Pick-up postal cards

4. FORECASTS FOR THE

HORIZONTAL YEAR
Estimation for Design Year
Population
Employment
Land use
Economic & Social Activity

5.

TRIP GENERATION ANALYSIS

Purpose

To develop equations Oi , Dj
(the trip ends of a particular trip type generated by each zone
based on land use)

TRIP GENERATION QUESTIONS

How much do people use the transport
system?
Why do people use the transport
system?
Where can different types of activities be
satisfied?

TRIP GENERATION
TRIP PURPOSE

Often separate predictions are mode for different type of trips since
travel behavior depends on trip purpose
In other words different models must be developed for each trip type
The category of trip types commonly used include

Work trips
School trips
Shopping trips
Recreational trips

TRIP GENERATION
WHAT IS PREDICTED?

Trip generation models predict so called TRIP ENDS for each

zone
The trip ends maybe classified as either
ORIGINS and DESTINATIONS (O-D)

or
PRODUCTIONS and ATTRACTIONS

The two sets of terms sound similar but there is a technical

difference

ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS

Residential

1
Non-residential

8
A worker leaves Zone 1 in the morning to
go to work in Zone 8

Non-residential
Residential

This results in 2 trip ends:

One Origin for Zone 1

One Destination for Zone 8

When that same worker leaves Zone 8 in
the evening to go to home to Zone 1
This results in another 2 trip ends:

One Destination for Zone 1

One Origin for Zone 8

Total Number of Trip Ends

Zone 1: 2 Trip Ends (1 O, 1 D)
Zone 8: 2 Trip Ends (1 O, 1 D)

PRODUCTIONS AND
ATTRACTIONS
Residential

1
Non-residential

8
A worker leaves Zone 1 in the morning to
go to work in Zone 8

Non-residential
Residential

This results in 2 trip ends:

One Production for Zone 1

One Attraction for Zone 8

Total Number of Trip Ends
When that same worker leaves Zone 8 in
the evening to go to home to Zone 1

Zone 1: 2 Trip Ends (2 Productions)

Zone 8: 2 Trip Ends (2 Attractions)

This results in another 2 trip ends:

One Production for Zone 1

One Attraction for Zone 8

ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS??

PRODUCTIONS AND ATTRACTIONS??

Based on the convention of trip generation models

Origins and Destinations are defined in terms of the direction of the trip
Productions and Attractions are defined by the land use
Residential Land use PRODUCES trip ends
Non-residential land use ATTRACTS trip ends
This is a useful distinction because of how trip generation models are
typically developed

TRIP GENERATION
Done separately for each trip purpose
Three main methods:

a. Multiple linear regression

b. Trip rate
c. Category analysis

A. MULTIPLE LINEAR
REGRESSION
The trip generation model typically can take the form of :
No. of trips = Function (pop, income, auto ownership rates)
The model is developed and calibrated using BASE year data

Norman W. Garrick

TRIP GENERATION BY

MULTIPLE REGRESSION, E.G.:

Home-to-work trips (R = 0.99)
Oi = -43.6 + 0.097 Population + .773 Employed
Residents - 351 Number of Households + .504 Num
Cars
Trips to shopping (R = 0.95)
Oi = -17.9 + 1.19 Area Res. Land + .266 Number of
Cars
Light Commercial Vehicle Trips:
Oi = 75.9 + .367Number HHs + .267 Total Empl -.339
Office Empl - .0188 Industrial Empl

SPSS OUTPUT

SPSS OUTPUT

B. TRIP RATE ANALYSIS METHOD

Trip-Rate Analysis
Trip rate is estimated on characteristics of the trip
generators with in the zone. Production rates are
determined using the characteristics of the residential
land uses and attraction rates using the characteristics of
the nonresidential land uses
Example
The characteristics of the trip generator is given in 1000 SQ. FT.
And the trip generation rate for each generator is given as TRIPS PER 1000 SQ. FT.
For example
Residential: Total 1000 Sq. Ft. = 2744 1000 sq. ft., Trip Gen. Rate = 2.4 trips/1000 sq.ft
TOTAL NO. of TRIP from residential land use = 2744*2.4 = 6586 Trips

This method of trip generation is often used to do site impact studies

TRIP RATE
Eg : Trip generation rates

28

CATEGORY ANALYSIS
Extension of simple trip-rate model
Trip rate associated with each type of household (or other attributes) are
estimated by statistical methods
One way of presenting the trip generation model developed from a
survey is as a cross-classification table

TRIP GENERATION BY
CATEGORY ANALYSIS(CROSS-

(Groups individual HHs according to common

socioeconomic characteristics)

CLASSIFICATION ANALYSIS)

HB Trip Production example

Worker
s/HH

1.418

1.413

1.550

1.655

2.855

2.661

2.693

3.891

4.154

2
3

Household size

TRIP GENERATION
BASE YEAR DEMOGRAPHICS
Number of Trips in Target Year for Each HH
Type
Persons per
Household
Type of
Area

Vehicles per
HH

2,3

5+

High Density

60

420

460

700

300

900

110
0

790

2+

180

680

590

166
0

50

250

500

740

Low Density

Number of Trips = trip rate*no. of HH = 0.6 * 1

100 = 60

190

700 trip
600
840
Total
= 13,080

TRIP GENERATION

DEVELOPING AND USING THE

MODEL

Survey Base Year

Socio-economic, land use
And
Trip making

Estimated
Target year
socio-economic,
land use data

Calibrated
Model
Relating trip making
to socio-economic
and land use data

Predicted
Target year
No. of Trips

SOME SOFTWARES
EMME 4
Trans Cad
VISUM
SIDRA