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Statistics
Descriptive
Inferential
Estimation
Point estimate
Hypothesis testing
Interval estimates
(Confidence
Interval)
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Types of Estimators
Point Estimator
- It gives a single value as an estimate
of the parameter of interest
Interval Estimator
- It specifies a range of values of the
parameter and our confidence that the
parameter value is in that range
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Point Estimation
A point estimate of the population parameter is the
sample statistic computed from a random sample
drawn from the population under study.
Certain sample statistic are good point estimators
for certain parameters
to sample
If the investigator had repeated the experiment, he
would have found a range of sample means, any
one of which would be a point estimate of the
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population mean.
Upper
Point Estimate
Confidence
Limit
Width of
confidence interval
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Interval Estimation
It is the interval of numbers in which we have a
specified degree of assurance that the value of the
parameter can be found.
The level of confidence tells the probability the method
produced an interval that includes the unknown
parameter
Gives information about closeness to unknown
population parameters
Stated in terms of level of confidence. (Can never be
100% confident)
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Confidence Interval
The general formula for all confidence intervals is
equal to:
.05
.475
.025
2
Z= -1.96
Lower
Confidence
Limit
/ 2 .025
.475
0
Point
Point Estimate
Estimate
.025
2
Z= 1.96
Upper
Confidence
Limit
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Confidence Intervals
Formula:
XZ
X Z / 2
/2
n
n
Steps:
Determination of
In order to construct an interval estimate, it is
necessary to obtain some estimate of , the
variability of the population from which the sample is
drawn.
x
Level of Confidence
Probability that the unknown population
parameter is in the confidence interval in 100
trials. Denoted (1 - ) % = level of
confidence e.g. 90%, 95%, 99%
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Interpretation
The interpretation of the confidence interval is
very important. Basically it means that upon taking a
sample of size n repeatedly and constructing the
interval
X + 1.96 /n each time, we would expect the
population mean to fall within the interval 95% of
the time .
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Interpretation of a Confidence
Interval for Population Mean ()
We can be 100(1-)confident that lies between
the lower and upper bounds of the confidence
interval.
In other way, it means that upon taking a sample of
size n repeatedly and constructing the interval X +
1.96 /n each time, we would expect the population
mean to fall within the interval 95% of the time
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90%
0.10
0.05
1.645
95%
0.05
0.025
1.96
99%
0.01
0.005
2.575
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Example 1
If we wish to estimate the mean VO2 uptake for a
population of joggers based on a random sample of
100 joggers, we could use the 95% confidence
interval for . From our random sample of 30 joggers
we know that X = 47.5 ml/kg and S = 4.8 ml/kg. A
95% Confidence Interval (C.I.) of is
X + 1.96 S /n or 47.5 + 1.96 ( 4.8)/5.477
47.5 + 1.718
or ( 45.78, 49.22)
The values 45.78 and 49.22 are the lower and upper
95% confidence limits.
Interpretation: Upon taking a sample size of 30
repeatedly 100 times, 95 times the mean VO2 intake
will fall between 45.78 and 49.22 ---OR--- We are
95% confident that the population mean VO2 intake
lies between range of 45.78 and 49.22 ml/kg.
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Example 2
If we wish to estimate the mean VO2 uptake for a
population of joggers based on a random sample of
100 joggers, we could use the 95% confidence
interval for . From our random sample of 100
joggers we know that X = 47.5 ml/kg and S = 4.8
ml/kg. A 95% Confidence Interval (C.I.) of is
X + 1.96 S /n or 47.5 + 1.96 ( 4.8)/10
47.5 + 0.94
or ( 46.56, 48.44)
The values 46.56 and 48.44 are the lower and
upper 95% confidence limits.
Interpretation: We are 95% confident that in the
long run the intervals constructed in such a way will
contain the population mean .
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Example 3
If we wish to estimate the mean VO2 uptake for a
population of joggers based on a random sample of
100 joggers, we could use the 99% confidence
interval for . From our random sample of 100
joggers we know that X = 47.5 ml/kg and S = 4.8
ml/kg. A 99% Confidence Interval (C.I.) of is
X + 2.575 S /n or 47.5 + 2.575 ( 4.8)/10
47.5 + 1.24
or ( 46.26, 48.74)
The values 46.26 and 48.74 are the lower and
upper 99% confidence limits.
Interpretation: We are 99% confident that in the
long run the intervals constructed in such a way will
contain the population mean .
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X Z / 2
X Z / 2
n
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95%Confidence Interval
A 95% is the most
frequent reported
confidence interval
reported. Not that
when you see certain
interval estimates
reported on TV (for
example some business
or medical statistics),
the confidence level is
not mentioned but it is
under stood that it is
based on a 95%
confidence level.
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