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Symbiosis Institute of

Management Studies
(SIMS)
Project Management

PERT,CPM, Resource
Allocation and GERT
Manuja Goenka, E-12
Raj Jyoti Das-E-13
August 2013

Tools for
Scheduling
o commonly used network methods for

nning and scheduling are:

ogram Evaluation and Review Techniques


ERT)

ritical path Method (CPM)

th PERT & CPM are termed critical path methods

History of PERT
Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
U S Navy (1958) for the POLARIS missile
program
Multiple task time estimates (probabilistic
nature)

PERT
PERT is based on the assumption that an
activitys duration follows a probability
distribution instead of being a single value
Three time estimates are required to compute
the parameters of an activitys duration
distribution:
pessimistic time (a) - the time the activity
would take if things did not go well
most likely time (m ) - the consensus best
estimate of the activitys duration
optimistic time (b) - the time the activity
a + 4m + b
Mean
(expected
time
):t
=
would take if things did go well e
6
Variance: V =

b- a
6

Three Time Estimates of PERT


PERT uses three time estimates to address
uncertainty of project duration-

Optimistic
Most Likely
Pessimistic

Mean or expected Time


It is the time where there is 50-50 chances that the
activity will be completed earlier or later than it.

For this case :

Variance
Variance is measure of variability in the activity
completion period.

The larger V, the less reliable te

The Expected Duration Of The Projec


The expected duration of the project
(Te) is the sum of the expected activity
times along the critical path
Te = te
Where te are expected times of the
activities on the critical path

The Variation In The Project Duratio


The variation in the project duration
distribution is computed as the sum
of the variances of the activity
durations along the critical path:
Vp = V
Where V is the variance of critical
path

Near Critical Path


Path
(event
s)

Te =
te

Vp =
V

28**

6.34

1-2-6-8
1-7-8

20
17.00

1-2-5-7- Te=29*
8

Vp=6.0
0

1-4-5-78

3.89

18

1-3-4-57-8
27**

12.00

Probability of Finishing a Project


Let us assume,
Expected completion duration of a project = 29 weeks
Variance of the project duration = 6
Then what will be the probability of finishing the
project by 27 weeks can be calculated by the formula:
Probability

Therefore,
Z=(27-29)/2.449
=-0.82
Prob. Of finishing the
project by 27 weeks
is app. 21%

darla/smbs/vit

Time
11

History of Critical Path


Method (CPM)
E I Du Pont de Nemours & Co. (1957) for
construction
of new chemical plant and maintenance
shut-down
CPM is a Deterministic approach
CPM includes mathematical procedure for
estimating
the trade off between project duration and
project
cost
CPM emphasis on applying additional
resources to

Time-Cost Relationship

Normal Time, Tn: It is the time taken by an


activity under normal work conditions
Normal Cost, Cn: The cost incurred in doing
an activity in normal time.

Crashing
An activity is said to be crashed when
maximum effort is applied to finish that
activity in the shortest possible time.

Cost Slope
The cost slope
shows by how
much the cost of
job would change if
activities were
speed up or slowed
down.

n this case,
ost Slope= (18-9)/(5-8) = $3 K/week

CPM calculation
Path
A connected sequence of activities
leading from the starting event to the
ending event

Critical Path
The longest path (time); determines the
project duration

Critical Activities
All of the activities that make up the
critical path

CPM calculation
Forward Pass

Earliest Start Time (ES)


earliest time an activity can start
ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors
Earliest finish time (EF)
earliest time an activity can finish
earliest start time plus activity time (EF= ES + t)

Backward Pass
Latest Start Time (LS)
Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path
time
LS= LF - t
Latest finish time (LF)
latest time an activity can be completed without delaying
critical path time
LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors

Project Crashing
Crashing
reducing project time by expending
additional resources
Crash time
an amount of time an activity is reduced
Crash cost
cost of reducing activity time
Goal
reduce project duration at minimum cost

Time-Cost Relationship
Crashing costs increase as project duration
decreases
Indirect costs increase as project duration increases
Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are
less than indirect
costs
Time-Cost
Tradeoff
Total project cost

cost

Indirect cost

Direct cost

time

Crashing Example
9
9

C
5

A
0

9
0

7
8
1
0

2
2
22

1
7

14

5
17

Acti
vity

Norma
l
(Wks)

Crush
(Wks)

T
n

Cn

T
c

1
0

6 1
6

5 1
8

4 8

6 1
9

3 1

1
7

Cost
Slope
(K$)

Cc

9
9

C
5

A
0

9
0

F
5

1
7

14

7
8
1
0

22
5

17

1
7

2
2

Critical Path

A-D-G=22wk

Types of Project Constraints


Technical or Logic Constraints
Constraints related to the networked sequence in
which project activities must occur.

Physical Constraints
Activities that cannot occur in parallel or are
affected by contractual or environmental conditions.

Resource Constraints
The absence, shortage, or unique interrelationship
and interaction characteristics of resources that
require a particular sequencing of project activities.

The Resource Problem


Resources and Priorities
Project network times are not a schedule until
resources have been assigned.
The implicit assumption is that resources will be
available in the required amounts when needed.
Adding new projects requires making realistic judgments
of resource availability and project durations.

Resource-Constrained Scheduling
Resource leveling (or smoothing) involves
attempting to even out demands on resources by
using slack (delaying noncritical activities) to
manage resource utilization.

Kinds of Resource Constraints

People
Materials
Equipment
Working
Capital

Classification of A
Scheduling Problem
Time Constrained Project
A project that must be completed by an
imposed date.
Time is fixed, resources are flexible: additional
resources are required to ensure project meets
schedule.

Resource Constrained Project


A project in which the level of resources
available cannot be exceeded.
Resources are fixed, time is flexible: inadequate
resources will delay the project.

Example :

Without resource constraints relatively


easy
With resource constraints very complex:
when jobs share resources with limited
availability, these jobs cannot be
processed simultaneously

J obs
p(j)
R(1,j)
R(2,j)

1
8
2
3

2
4
1
0

3
6
3
4

4
4
1
0

5
4
2
3

Resource
Available

R1
4

R2
8

27

S'j earliestpossiblestartingtimeof job j


C'j earliestpossiblecompletion
timeof job j
C''j latestpossiblecompletion
timeof job j
slackj C''j pj S'j

28

Resource constraints
Suppose jobs require a resource:
J ob
1
2
3
4
5
6

p(j) Predecessors S' C'' R(1,j)


2
0 3
3
3
0 3
1
1
0 6
2
4
1,2
3 7
2
2
2,3
3 8
3
1
4
7 8
3

6
5

4
3

2
1

resource requirements

4
1

8
29

Resource constraints (cont.)


SupposeR1 4 :
6
5
4
3

2
1

3
1

4
3

9 10

Cmax increases by 2
30

Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP)

n jobs j=1,,n
N resources i=1,,N
Rk: availability of resource k
pj:

duration of job j

Rkj:requirement of resource k for job j


Pj:(immediate) predecessors of job j
31

RCPSP
'
Goal: minimize makespan:
Cmax maxCj
j
Restrictions:

no job may start before T=0


precedence relations
finite resource capacity

32

J ob p(j) P(j) S' C'' R(1,j) R(2,j)


1
2
- 0 3
3
2
2
3
- 0 3
1
1
3
1
- 0 6
2
1
4
4 1,2 3 7
2
1
5
2 2,3 3 8
3
2
6
1
4 7 8
3
1

RCPSP
example

R1 4

2
1

3 4
2

R2 2

1
0

6 5

3
2

10

10

12

33

Loading And Leveling


Loading- amount of a resource
necessary to conduct a project
Depends on the requirements of
individual activities.
Changes throughout a project

Resource Leveling- process of


scheduling activities so that the
amount of a certain required resource
is balanced throughout the resource.

Multiproject Resource
Schedules
Multiproject Scheduling Problems
Overall project slippage
Delay on one project create delays for other
projects

Inefficient resource application


The peaks and valleys of resource demands create
scheduling problems and delays for projects.

Resource bottlenecks
Shortages of critical resources required for multiple
projects cause delays and schedule extensions.

Multiproject Resource
Schedules
Managing Multiproject Scheduling
Create project offices or departments to
oversee the scheduling of resources across
projects.
Use a project priority queuing system: first
come, first served for resources.
Centralize project management: treat all
projects as a part of a megaproject.
Outsource projects to reduce the number of
projects handled internally.

Limitations of PERT/CPM

All immediate predecessor activities must be


completed before a given activity can be started.
No activity can be repeated and no looping
back
Duration time for an activity is restricted to Beta
Distribution PERT and a single estimate in CPM.
Critical Path is always considered the longest.
There is only one terminal event and the only
way to reach it is by completing all activities in
the project

GERT
Anetwork analysistechnique used inproject
management.
It allows probabilistic treatment of both
network logic and activity duration estimated.
The technique was first described in 1966 by
Dr. Alan B. Pritskerof Purdue University and
WW Happ.
Compared to other techniques, GERT is an
only rarely used scheduling technique.

Contd..
Utilizes probabilistic and branching
nodes
It represents the node will be
reached if any m of its p immediate
predecessors are completed.
m

Contd..
It represents a probabilistic output
where any of q outputs are possible
Each branch has an assigned
probability
When no probability is given, the
1
probability is assumed to be one for
2
each branch.
q

Example

Thank YOu