Title: Modelling of Cascade Dams &

Reservoir Operation for Optimal Water Use:

Application to the Omo River Basin,
Ethiopia
Supervisor
Prof. Dr. rer. nat Manfred Koch (Uni-Kassel)
Dr. Yilma Sileshi (AAU, Ethiopia)
November 09, 2012
Kassel, Germany

Outline
1. Background
2. Study Area
3. Objectives
4. SDSM application
5. SWAT Model
6. HEC-ResSim Model
7. References
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

1. Background

Over 45 000 times in the last century, people took

the decision to build a dam.
Dams were built to provide water for irrigated
agriculture, domestic or industrial use, to generate
hydropower or help control floods (WCD, 2000).
Hydroelectric power dams currently provide 19% of
the worlds electricity supply.
Worldwide, water demands have roughly tripled
since 1950, & dams have helped satisfy that
demand.
Contribute directly to 1216% of the global food
production (WCD, 2000).
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Background cont...

In relation to constructed dams, Africa contains

some of the worlds largest dams (e.g., Owen Falls
(Uganda), Kariba (Zimbabwe) & Aswan High
(Egypt). (ICOLD, 2003).
Furthermore, Ethiopia has 13 hydropower dams
and out of these ten were completed & three are
under construction.
According to 2005 plan of EEPCo, when the 3
dams complete, the capacity of the hydropower
will increase to the capacity of 3,125 MW which
will satisfy the electricity demand of the country.

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Background cont...
On the contrary, dams have considerable
influence on d/s river ecosystems, in many cases
extending for hundreds of kilometers below a
dam.
One of the problem encountered for the Ethiopian
Govt has been opposition from International
River (IR)-People-Water-Life in the construction
of Gibe dam III in Omo river which will expect
catastrophic effect on the d/s users & ecosystem.

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Background cont...

To take account of this problem the WCD called for

a more equitable distribution of the benefits to be
gained from large dams & proposed the inclusion
of all identified stakeholders in the planning &
management of water resources stored in a
reservoir (WCD, 2000).
To achieve this, dams & reservoirs operation must
take into account the availability of the water
resource in the basin, water uses u/s & d/s of the
dam & must give consideration to political,
organizational, social & environmental factors, as
well as economic factor (McCartney & Acreman,
2001).
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Background cont...
Hence,
1. New strategies for effective use of the water in the
basin particularly in the Omo River basin will be
needed for water development & management to
avert water scarcities that could depress d/s users
& damage the environment.
2. A large share of water to meet new demands must
come from water saved from existing uses through
a comprehensive reform of water policy.
3. Integrated management must be the primary
approach
to
addressing
sustainable
water
resources, both for subsystem & river basin level.
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

2. Study Area

The Omo-Gibe River Basin

is almost 79,000 km2 in
area
The basin lies longitude
430'N - 930'N & latitude
350'E - 380'E, altitude
of 2800masl.
The general direction of
flow of the river is
southwards towards the
Omo River/Lake Turkana
Trough, a fault feature.

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

3. Objective of Research
Main objective
The purpose of this study is to model
cascade dams & reservoirs operation in the
Omo river basin to satisfactorily simulate the
operation of dams & reservoirs for optimal
water use.

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Specific objectives
The specific objectives of the proposed study are
To simulate runoff & inflow to the reservoirs in the
Omo river basin using the SWAT model.
To develop & recommend optimal dam & reservoir
operation rule curves for cascade dams & reservoirs,
more soundly based on evaluating the feasibility of
various reservoir operating alternatives.
To evaluate the effects of various reservoir
operating alternatives on either preventing flooding
or avoiding precarious low flow at locations d/s of
the reservoirs.
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Hydrological & Hydraulic Situation

in the Omo River Basin

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

GIBE-I

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

GIBE-II

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

GIBE-III

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

GIBE-IV

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

GIBE-V

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Lake Turkana

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

4. The Statistical DownScaling Model:

application to filling and forcasting
Metrological data
4.1 Introduction
The Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) is a
freely available tool that produces high resolution
climate change scenarios.
Downscaling is a technique by which properties
of the free atmosphere are used to predict local
meteorological conditions.
The large-scale information may originate from
systematic weather observations or from climate
model outputs.
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

SDSM cont....
This freely available software enables the
production of climate change time series at
sites for which there are sufficient daily data
for model calibration, as well as archived
General Circulation Model (GCM) output to
generate scenarios.
SDSM can also be used as a stochastic
weather generator or to infill gaps in
meteorological data.

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Objective
To filling and forecasting Rainfall and
Temperature data for Omo Metrological
Stations

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Methdology

The structure and operation of SDSM has seven

tasks to infill and generate data. These are:
1. Quality control and data transformation;
2. Screening of potential downscaling predictor
variables;
3. Model calibration;
4. Generation of ensembles of current weather
data using observed predictor variables;
5. Statistical analysis of observed data and climate
change scenarios;
6. Graphing model output;
7. Generation of ensembles of future weather data.
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

RESULT

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Asendabo Station-Precipitation Unfilled &

filled data chart

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Statistical Analysis using Mean, Variance,Sum

& pdf plot of unfilled & Filled Precipition data
Asendabo Precipitation Bar Chart

Asendabo Precipitation Bar Chart

PREC_unfilled

PREC_Unfilled

PREC_Filled

PREC_Filled

13

13

418

418

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Dec

Asendabo PDF Chart

Asendabo Precipitation Bar Chart

AsendaboObsPCPunfilled.dat

Mean

PREC_unfilled
10000

PREC_Filled
205

10000

205

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

x axis label

Dec

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Generated Precipitation data from 2001-2040

.

Standardised Precipitation Index

PCPNCEP_1970-2000.dat
PCPGCM_2001_2040.dat
5

-4

-4

Year

Statistical Analysis using Mean, Varience,

Sum & pdf of Observed & Modelled data
.

Observed V Model Mean Precipiritation

Observed Vs Modelled Monthlly Prec Sum

Observed Prec
Model Prec
12

Observed Prec Sum

12

Modelled Prec Sum

347

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

347

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Asendabo Prec PDF Chart

Observed Vs Simulated Prec Varience

AssendaboObsPrec.dat
Mean
10000

10000

Observed Variance
Modelled Variance
239

239

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

x axis label

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Asendabo Unfilled and Filled Maximum

Temperature data chart
.

Statistical Analysis of using Mean,

Variance,Sum & pdf plot of Max Unfilled &
Filled Temp data
Asendabo Maximum Temperature

Asendabo Maximum Temperature Varience

Maximum Temperature_Unfilled
Mimum Temperature_Filled

Max. Temperature_Unfilled

58

Max. Temperature_Filled

58
1810

1810

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec
0

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Asendabo Max. Temperature PDF Chart

Asendabo Maximum Temperature

AsendaboObsTMAXunfilled.dat
Mean

Max. Temperature_Unfilled

6906

6906

Max. Temperature_Filled
46

46

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

38.5

x axis label

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Generated Maximum Temperature

from 2001-2040
.

Generated Temperature Maximum

TEMPNCEP_1970-2000.dat
TEMPGCM_2001-2040.dat
68

68

Data points

Statistical Analysis using Mean, Varience,

Sum & pdf of Generated data
.

Observed Vs Modelled Max Temp Mean

Observed Vs Modelled Max Temp Sum

Observed Max Temp Mean
Observed Max Temp Sum

Modelled Max Temp Mean

Modelled Max Temp Sum

57

57

1000

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

1000

0
Jan

Dec

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Asendabo Max Temp PDF Chart

AssendaboObsTmax.dat

Obseved Vs Modelled Max Temp Varience

Mean

Observed Max Temp Variance

4000

4000

Modelled Max Temp Variance

18

18

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

x axis label

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Asendabo Unfilled and Filled Minimum

Temperature data from 1970-2000
.

Statistical Analysis using Mean, Variance,Sum

& pdf plot of Min. Temp
Asendabo Min. Temp Sum

Asendabo Min. Temp Mean

Min.Temp_Unfilled

Min. Temp Sum_Unfilled

Min. Temp_Filled

Min. Temp Sum_Filled

16

16

500

500

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

SDSM PDF Chart

Asendabo Min. Temperature Varience

Min Temp_Unfilled Varience

AsendaboObsTMINunfilled.dat

Min. Temp._Filled Variance

Mean

5382

16

5382

16

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

-5

22

x axis label

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Generated Minimum Temperature

from 2001-2040
.

Mean Temperature Series

TMINNCEP_1970-2000.dat
TMINGCM_2001-2040.dat
33

33

-10

-10

Data points

Statistical Analysis using Mean, Varience,

Sum & pdf of Generated data
Observed Vs Modelled Min Temp Mean

.
Observed Vs Modelled Min Temp Sum

Observed Min Temp Mean

Modelled Min Temp Mean

Observed Min Temp Sum

16

Modelled Min Temp Sum

16
500

500

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Asendabo Min Temp PDF Chart

Observed Vs Modelled Min Temp Varience

AssendaboObsTmin.dat

Observed Min Temp Variance

5662

Mean
5662

Modelled Min Temp Variance

16

16

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

x axis label

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Summary
By the same procedure
18 Precipitation station were filled and
generated
13 Maximum and Minimum temperature station
data were filled and generated

5.1.
Introduction
5. Hydrological
Model SWAT
SWAT is a hydrological model that attempt to
describe the physical processes controlling the
transformation of precipitation to runoff.
The major hydrologic processes described by
this model include: Canopy interception,
Evaporation,
Transpiration,
Snowmelt,
Interflow, Overland flow, Channel flow,
unsaturated subsurface flow and saturated
subsurface flow.

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Introduction cont...
SWAT was used to assess and predict the
impact of land management practices on water
in Omo river basin with varying soils, land use
and management conditions over long periods
of time.

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

5.2. Objective

To simulate runoff & inflow to the

reservoirs in the Omo river basin.

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

5.3. Methodology

Input files needed for

daily stream flow
computation were :
the digital elevation
model (DEM),
land cover,
soil layers,
daily values of
precipitation, max.& min.
air temp, solar radiation,
RH, & WS,
Hydrological flow data.
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Methodology cont...

Missing metrological data were filled

using WXGEN weather generator model of SWAT,
SDSM, and
Hydrological flow data were filled by Multiple
regression of R program
The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to
create stream network, subbasin & delineate the
watershed boundary & also calculate the sub basin
parameters.
Threshold value of 2%, 5% & 5% were taken for
land use, soil & slope in order to keep the number
of HRUs to a reasonable number for modeling the
water assessment of the basin.
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Methodology cont...
Runoff was predicted separately for each HRU
& routed to obtain the total runoff for the
watershed, and
Calibration, Validation & Uncertainity of the
model using SWAT_CUP 4.3.7.

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

5.4. Results
1. Model Calibration and Validation of
Abelti Sub watershed
Abelti sub-watershed has an area of 15,495 km
and 30% of the total watershed delineated at
Omorate.
SWAT Land Use
AGRC

Area (ha)
92603.24

%
Watershed
Area
1.37

Soil
Chromic Luvisols (LVx)
Dystric Vertisol (VRd)

AGRL

1122014.08

16.62

FRSD

115774.54

1.72

RNGW

124815.46

1.85 Humic Alisol (Ntu)

WATR

85006.00

Eutric Vertisols (VRe)

1.26 Humic Nitisols (NTu)

Lithic Leptosols (LPq)

Area
(ha)
173730.
74
228955.
24
304403.
79
385865.
94
406320.
23
40937.3
8

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

%
Watersh
ed Area
2.57
3.39
4.51
5.72
6.02
0.61

Model Calibration and Validation of

Abelti Sub watershed
Using SWAT model
the area was
delineated into 9
sub watersheds,
which were further,
divided into 122
HRUs.
Simulated flow at
the outlet was
compared with the
observed flow.
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Flow Calibration At Abelti

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Sensitivity Analysis

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

2. Model Calibration and Validation of

Karodus Sub watershed
Karo Duse sub-watershed covers 64,518 km
and 95.6% of the total watershed delineated
at the Omorate.
Land use and land cover was reclassified into
%
7 broad categories
Area
Watershe % sub
SWAT Land
Use
AGRC
AGRL
FRSD
FRST
RNGR
RNGW
WATR

%
Area
Watershed % sub
(ha)
Area
basin
92603
.2
1.4
1.4
27200
10.3
40.3
42.2
66128
0.5
9.8
10.3
69943
.8
1.0
1.1
29247
0.2
4.3
4.5
24274
71
18.8
37.6
18639
6.5
2.8
2.9

Modeling of Cascade

Soil

(ha)
d Area
basin
35159
Chromic Luvisol
8.7
5.2
5.5
14272.
Dystric leptosol
9
0.2
0.2
22895
Dystric Vertisol
5.2
1.7
3.5
14606
Eutric Cambisol
0.0
1.6
2.3
43805
Eutric Fluvisol
9.3
6.5
6.8
11503.
Eutric Leptosol
9
0.2
0.2
82750
Eutric Vertisols
9.7
12.3
12.8
13818
Humic
54.1
20.5
21.4
Dams
& Alisol
Reservoir Operation
21309

Model Calibration and Validation of

Karodus Sub watershed
Using SWAT model
the area was
delineated into 24
sub watersheds,
which were further,
divided into 311
HRUs.
Simulated flow at
the outlet was
compared with the
observed flow.
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Flow Calibration At Karodus

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Sensitivity Analysis

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

6. HEC-ResSim (Reservoir System

6.1.
IntroductionModel
Simulation)
HEC-ResSim (USACE) is a modeling software
program used to assist in planning studies for
evaluating existing & proposed reservoirs,
reservoir operations, & to assist in sizing the
flood risk management and conservation
storage requirements for each project.
It is intended to meet the needs of real-time
reservoir regulators for a decision support tool,
as well as the needs of modelers doing
reservoir projects studies.
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Introduction cont...
There are three modules that make up HECResSim to simulate the dam & reservoir
operations.
These are watershed set up, reservoir network
and simulation. Each module has a unique
purposes & an associated set of functions
accessible through menus, toolbars and
schematic.

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

ResSim Module Concepts

.

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

6.2. Objective
To develop & recommend optimal dam &
reservoir operation rule curves for cascade
dams & reservoirs
To evaluate the effects of various reservoir
operating alternatives on either preventing
flooding or avoiding precarious low flow at
locations d/s of the reservoirs

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

6.3. Methodology

Insertion of the map layers in to the HECResSim model

Schematization & configuration of stream
alignment & configurations of the projects
Developing network schematic
Describing the physical & operational elements
of the reservoir model & analyze the alternatives
Configuration of simulation to isolate the output
analysis,
Simulation of the dams & reservoirs network,

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Watershed Setup & Stream

Alignment

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Methodology cont
Evaluation of the effects of various reservoir
operating alternatives on flooding at locations
d/s of the reservoirs,
Calibration & Verification of the model,
Development of a model that represents the
cascade dams & reservoirs,
Delivery of optimal water use operational model
for Omo River Basin and
Interpretation of the results.

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

6. References

Akter, T. & Simonovic, S. P., (2004). Modelling

uncertainties in short-term reservoir operation
using fuzzy sets and a genetic algorithm.
Hydrological Science Journal 49(6): 1081-1079.
Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R.S., Muttiah, & J.R.
Williams. (1998). Large area hydrologic modeling
and assessment part I : Model development. J.
American Water Resource. Assoc. 34(1): 73-89.
Arunkumar, S., & Yeh, W. W. G. (1973).
Probabilistic models in the design and operation of
a multi-purpose reservoir system.
Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation

Modeling of Cascade Dams & Reservoir Operation