Warranty Analysis

Warranty Analysis
Warranty Analysis is used to analyze guarantee data and predict
failure in the future. There are 2 components in Warranty Analysis:
1. Pre-process warranty Process raw data in triangle matrix form
become time to failure data format in order to be analyzable
2. Warranty prediction Used to predict warranty claim in the future,
or returned product, based on current guarantee data

Example of Warranty Analysis

See worksheet COMPRESSOR.MTW.
You are working of a household factory and want to predict claim for the next
5 months
Steps:
1. Choose Stat > Reliability/Survival > Warranty Analysis > Pre-Process
Warranty Data.
2. In Shipment (sale), enter data Ship.
3. In Return (failure), enter Month1-Month12. click OK.
4. Choose Stat > Reliability/Survival > Warranty Analysis > Warranty
Prediction.
5. At Start time, enter 'Start time'. at End time, enter 'End time'. at Frequency
(optional), enter Frequencies.
6. Click Prediction. at Production quantity for each time period, enter 1000.
Click OK in each dialogue box

Example of Warranty Analysis

Example of Warranty Analysis

Example of Warranty Analysis

Example of Warranty Analysis

Click
Click
Prediction
Prediction

Example of Warranty Analysis

Example of Warranty Analysis

Warranty
WarrantyPrediction:
Prediction:Start
Start==Start
Starttime
timeand
andEnd
End==End
Endtime
time
* *NOTE
NOTE* *22
22cases
caseswere
wereused;
used;22cases
casescontained
containedmissing
missingvalues
valuesororzero
zero
frequencies.
frequencies.
Using
Usingfrequencies
frequenciesininFrequencies
Frequencies

Production
ProductionSchedule
Schedule

Distribution:
Distribution:Weibull
Weibullwith
withshape
shape==1.31962,
1.31962,scale
scale==328.914
328.914
Estimation
method:
Least
squares
(failure
time
(X)
on
Estimation method: Least squares (failure time (X) onrank
rank(Y))
(Y))

Future
11
22
33 44 55
Futuretime
timeperiod
period
Production
Productionquantity
quantity 1000
1000 1000
1000 1000
1000 1000
1000 1000
1000

Summary
SummaryofofCurrent
CurrentWarranty
WarrantyClaims
Claims
Total
Totalnumber
numberofofunits
units
Observed
number
Observed numberofoffailures
failures
Expected
number
of
failures
Expected number of failures
95%
95%Poisson
PoissonCICI

12000
12000
69
69
71.2094
71.2094
(55.6367,
(55.6367,89.7905)
89.7905)

Number
Numberofofunits
unitsatatrisk
riskfor
forfuture
futuretime
timeperiods
periods 11931
11931

Table
TableofofPredicted
PredictedNumber
NumberofofFailures
Failures
Future
Future Potential
Potential Predicted
Predicted
Time
Number
of
Number
Time Number of Numberofof 95%
95%Poisson
PoissonCICI
Period
Lower
Period Failures
Failures Failures
Failures
Lower Upper
Upper
11 12931
13.9815
7.6403
12931
13.9815
7.6403 23.466
23.466
22 13931
29.3874
13931
29.3874 19.7387
19.7387 42.106
42.106
33 14931
46.2486
33.8905
61.642
14931
46.2486
33.8905 61.642
44 15931
64.5942
49.8093
15931
64.5942
49.8093 82.393
82.393
55 16931
84.4519
16931
84.4519 67.4053
67.4053 104.498
104.498
Predicted
PredictedNumber
NumberofofFailures
FailuresPlot
Plot

Example of Warranty Analysis

Predicted Number of Failures Plot

Weibull - 95% CI

Number of Failures

100
80
60
40
20
0
0

2
3
Future Time Period

Example of Warranty Analysis

Result Interpretation:
During data collection period, from 12000 units in the market, 69
compressors fail. With Weibull distribution to model time-to failure, it is
predicted that 71 units will be fail.
From prediction table (table of predicted number of failures and the
predicted number of failures plot), we can conclude that with 95%
confident level that in the next 5 months, 67 104 units of
compressors is predicted fail