Political Science 1

Fall 2016
Polling and Public Opinion
Nov 7th 9th

Three Questions as we Study Public

Opinion
1) How can we tell what people really think
about politics?
Measurement challenge
2) Do most Americans even have
meaningful attitudes when it comes to
politics?
Political ignorance challenge
3) Where does public opinion come from
and how does it change?
The explanatory challenge

What is Public Opinion?

Napoleon I: Public Opinion is the
thermometer a monarch should constantly
consult.
Oscar Wilde: Public Opinion... an attempt
to organize the ignorance of the
community, and to elevate it to the dignity
of physical force.
V.O. Key: Public opinion consists of those
opinions held by private persons which
governments find it prudent to heed.
Public opinion is the distribution of

Why worry about public

opinion?

Because we live in a democracy!

Popular sovereignty assumes input by citizens
How does this happen?
Direct democracy: voting on every issue
Representative democracy: voting for
representatives
Trustee vs Delegate
Principal-Agent Dilemma
Strategic Politicians: want input before voting
Think going public etc
Questions:
How much does democracy require informed
citizens?

The Framers and Public Opinion

Politics + institutions ultimately = will of the
people
Federalist Papers aimed at Public Opinion
But concerned re Political Ignorance in mass
electorate
Assumed to be ignorant and easily swayed
A potential source of tyranny of the majority

Built in safeguards to the Constitution

Features reduce role of public opinion in elections
and policy
Only House is democratically elected; checked by
other institutions

Scientific Polling: Who Are We

Asking?
What is the group of people we care about?
Population: entire group of people we want info about
(i.e. voters)
Who are the people we get to answer our survey
questions?
Sample: subset of the population that is used to gain
information about the whole population.
Does our sample allow us to make good inferences?
aggregate characteristics of the sample must closely
match that of the population
How do we get a good sample? Randomness = key
Each member of pop. has equal chance of being part
of the sample
Most common: random digit dialing
With a sample of about 1200, margin of error about 3%

Non-Scientific Polling:
Literary Digest Poll, 1936
Literary Digest sent out mailers to 10m people
Pre 1936: always right BUT 1936 much more re
economics
Received responses from 2.4 million:
Alf Landon
57%
Franklin Roosevelt 43%
Results of election
Alf Landon
39%
Franklin Roosevelt 61%
Landon wins 8 electoral college votes record low
Literary Digest goes bust!
Why?
Sample size not everything: representativeness
matters

Measurement Challenge: Sampling

Problems

Problem: Randomness = key BUT truly random sample of a

pop. = hard
Phone polls use random digit dialing BUT:
Spread of cell phones (people with no landline): differences re
age, wealth
High refusal rate (most people do not answer or hang up)
Bias in refusal: more likely to say yes if their candidate doing
well
Bias in acceptance:
People who agree = More money, education, political
knowledge

Reweighting = key to correcting for bias

use survey weights based on refusal rates etc
weight up members of groups

Problem: member of that group may not be representative:

e.g. Hispanic voters and multi-language polls
bilingual = different demographic, more likely to answer

Measurement Challenge:
Even Tougher Sampling Problem
What is population of interest?
Adults?
Citizens?
Registered voters?
Likely voters?

Problem: Will you vote on Tuesday?

Everyone says yes, not everyone votes
Question: can you trust what people tell you
on surveys?
Why would they lie?

Measurement Challenge:
Can we trust respondents?
Measurement issues include:
Social desirability effect: Bradley effect
Ignorance + willingness to respond: the
non-attitude problem
Questions with more than one object: the
confusion problem
Order effects that bias
Agreement bias

Question wording = key

e.g. ask re racial stereotypes not are you
racist?

Measurement Challenge: Small

Differences in Question Wording Can
Have Big Impact
Do you think abortion should be legal in all
cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases,
or illegal in all cases? (Wash. Post, Nov. 2009)
Legal in all cases: 19%
Legal in most cases: 35%
Illegal in most cases: 28%
Illegal in all cases: 16%

Alternative Wording
Do you think abortion should be legal under any
circumstances, legal under only certain
circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?
(If legal under only certain circumstances): Do you
think abortion should be legal in most circumstances
or only a few circumstances? (CNN, Nov. 2009)

Always legal:
26%
Legal in most circumstances:
Legal in few circumstances:
Always illegal:
23%

10%
40%

Comparison

54
%

Legal in all cases:

19% Always legal:
26%
Legal in most cases:
Legal in most circumstances: 10%
35%
Legal in few circumstances: 40%
Illegal in most cases:
Always illegal:
23%
28%
Illegal in all cases:
16%

36
%

One More Question

In general, do you agree or disagree
with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme
Court decision that established a
womans right to an abortion?
(Quinnipiac, July 2008)
Agree: 63%
Disagree: 33%
Unsure
5%

Problems in Polls / Question Wording

Ask whether question is balanced
Does it offer a rationale for both sides?

Examine results with alternative question

wording:
Good resources: pollingreport.com, pollster.com
Strategic Politicians: figure out how to pitch the issue to
public
Polling therefore can help shape as well as measure public
opinion
Shows importance of how issue is framed for the public

Framing the Question = crucial:

the wording, where in survey, or other questions, external
events
longitudinal surveys = hard: even ID wording maybe be
framed differently
Public can be primed to respond in a particular way

Political Ignorance Challenge:

Do US voters even have meaningful
views?
Limited knowledge of politics: see textbook
Limited role of ideology (e.g. very little
constraint)
Attitudes highly inconsistent over time
Why?
Acquiring information on politics/issues is
costly
For most people politics = a sideshow
Therefore irrational for most people to be
highly informed about political issues
Potential free-rider issue

Knowledge About Political

Figures
(PEW, Feb. 2007)

Explanatory Challenge:
Where do political views come from; what
influences them?
Relevant to political ignorance challenge:
where they come from affects whether they make
sense
Is it just self-interest?
Problem = often hard to know how policy will affect you
personally:
Only really when stakes are clear, large, definite
Self-interest re acquiring info = relevant: costs/benefits

Attitudes
Opinions
Ideology
Core beliefs
Partisanship

Attitudes vs Opinions
Attitude = enduring predisposition to respond
to in a particular way to a person, group, topic,
or issue
Combines feelings, beliefs, and thoughts
Often based on Core Values e.g. Individualism,
Egalitarianism

Attitudes = more general and stable than

Opinions on specific issues
But Attitudes shape specific Opinions
Some examples of general attitudes and
specific opinions:
General / abstract
Specific / Narrow
Distrust of government Views on Obamacare

Ideology
Ideology: set of organized, internally
consistent attitudes/core beliefs
cognitive bias to consistency

Framework which helps people understand,

evaluate, and respond to political phenomena:
Liberal, Conservative, Libertarian, grumpy British
anarcho-socialist

About 1/5 of Americans use these terms

spontaneously
But most people express views that dont fit
neatly
i.e. liberal on some issues/beliefs and conservative on

Partisanship
Partisanship shapes/organizes
opinions/attitudes
Large majority identify as Dems. or
Republicans:
"Generally speaking, do you usually think of
yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an
Independent, or what?"
(If Independent or other): Do you think of
yourself as closer to the Republican or Democratic
party?

If count leaners about 85-90% are

partisans
Without leaners 66% are partisan
Butbest predictor of voting behavior,

Effects of Partisanship:
Predicting the Vote and
Stability
Predicting the Vote (2012 Exit Poll):
92% of Democrats voted for Obama
93% of Republicans voted for Romney

Stability: Interview same people in

1965 and after 1980 election:
Republicans in 1965: 90% voted for
Reagan in 1980
Democrats in 1965: 34% voted for
Reagan in 1980

Sources of Party
Identification

Political socialization:

parents, family, neighborhood, friends

Party ID almost as stable as religion
Age 18-25 as period of greatest change in
partisanship
Few change party after age 25-30
Political events when first voting can create
Political generations
e.g. New Deal
Change = possible but generally stable:
consistency bias
selective perception

Party ID by Year of Voting Age

Effects of Partisanship: Selective

Perception
Partisan bias: beliefs about objective
conditions can be shaped by (distorted
by) partisanship
Example: Survey question (1988) Did
inflation get worse or better over last 8
years?
Reality: Inflation rate in 1980 = 13.5%, in
1988= 4.1%
But over 50% of strong Democrats said
inflation worse in 1988 than 1980

Voters are not like politicians

But..Selective Perception is Not

Complete

Does Political Ignorance Really

Matter?

Argument: legitimate democracy needs

informed public
If so.political ignorance/selective perception
= a problem
Maybe political attitudes are really nonattitudes
wildly wrong, even random

Key question = can individuals make

meaningful and rational political decisions
WITHOUT high political knowledge?
Two things suggest non-attitudes thesis =
too simple:

Issue Publics
Most people dont care about most things
Therefore they arent highly informed
But most people do care deeply about SOME
issues:

e.g. in Converses study, stability of responses to racial issues

much stronger than rural electrification

unlikely people randomly choose a response to values issues

important to them e.g. abortion

Implication is that voters:

not deciding on issues they dont care about

find out where the candidates stand on issues that matter
to them

Makes decisions much simpler:

easier to get info re limited No. of issues

AND since they care more likely to WANT to obtain

information

Heuristics
Heuristics = informational short-cuts
Dont gather all the info follow a heuristic that
they have learned to trust over time
An effective heuristic = same decision would have
made if fully informed themselves
Examples of heuristics people use in making
political decisions:
Opinion Leaders: media, Church, issue publics,
friends/family, teacher (lol)
Interest Groups
Voting for/against President based on the current state of
the economy
Party ID = MOST important heuristic
BUT Problem with heuristics especially party ID =
potentially biased info

Party ID as a Cue
(Heuristic)
If Barack Obama says:
The Student Loan Act
of 2010 is a great idea
and Ted Cruz says: The
Student Loan Act of
2010 is a terrible idea,
what do you conclude
about the Student Loan
Act?

Is Aggregate Public Opinion

Meaningful?

Seems unlikely given individual opinion

features:
lack of information
lack of ideological consistency
selective perception

BUT aggregate public opinion shows:

Stability
Responsiveness to political / economic
events
Reasonable coherence
Cyclical shifts between Con and Lib
"moods"

Stability of Public Opinion

Why does Aggregate Opinion Seem

Sensible?
Three main answers:
Measurement errors + random answers
cancel out
White Noise: aggregate opinion responds
only to the 20% paying attention
Issue Publics/Opinion leaders = effective
Issue public: individuals who follow issue closely
understand it
Opinion leaders: less informed people rely on them
as heuristic
Example: Rally-around-the-flag
Rally effect is much bigger when opposition leaders
support President (since no opposing opinion leaders
voices are heard in media)

Aggregate Opinion
Limitations
Dependence on elite cues
If both partiesleaders = same side but wrong voters are in
trouble
Parties can define policies by strategic action not merit/truth

Blind retrospection (Bartels)

Blame incumbent President for droughts etc
Reward for economy in last year, not over full term

Aggregate opinion may be coherent but NOT

necessarily consistent
e.g. Polls show majority of public:

Opposes tax increases

Supports higher spending for major programs
Favors reducing budget deficit
Note: these do not add up!

Aggregate opinion may respond in broadly rational

ways but NOT necessarily proportionate

Public Opinion Wrap-Up

Measurement challenge:
Can measure in valid way if representative
sample and attention to question wording

Political ignorance challenge:

Voters rely on cues so opinion is not random
/ meaningless but not same as being fully
informed

Explanatory challenge:
For individuals, party ID and core values
central
Aggregate opinion responds to economy /
events in reasonable manner but not
entirely rational

Public Opinion:
Other things to think about
What are the main points of agreement
in PO?
Think about American Political Culture

How does modern PO etc relate to the

nationalization of politics?
How do demographic differences affect
opinion on different matters?
How important is it that people vote?