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Topics Covered
Horizon analysis
Fair Holding Period Return
Price of a Bond purchased
between Coupon Periods
Zero Coupon Bond STRIPS
Lecture 5
Sreejata Banerjee
Horizon Analysis
What is horizon analysis?
Forecasting the realized compound yield
over various holding periods or investment
horizons are called horizon analysis.
The forecast of total return depends on your
forecast of both the price of the bond when
you sell it at the end of the horizon and the
rate at which you are able to re-invest the
coupon income.
The sales price depends on the YTM at the
horizon date.
Lecture 5
Sreejata Banerjee
Horizon Analysis
Suppose you buy a 30 year, 7.5% (annual payment) coupon
bond for $980( when its YTM is 7.67%) and plan to hold it for
20years. Your forecast is that the bonds YTM will be 8% when
it is sold and that the reinvestment rate on the coupons will be
6%.
At the end of the investment horizon with 10 year remaining
the forecast sales price with YTM of 8% will be $966.25. The
20 coupon payments will grow with compound interest to
$2758.92. ( FV at 20 years = 36.786 *75 = 2758.92)(see the
FV table.)
Based on these forecasts your investment $980 investment
will grow in 20 years to $966.45+$2758.92 =$ $3725.37.
V0=(1+r) 20 = V 20 So annualized compound return is $980(1+r)
20 = $ 3725.37
(1+r) 20 = 3725.37/980
(1+r) = 20 3.80 = 1.069
Therefore r = 0.069 =6.9%
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c ++ c
+M
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Period
Present value of $1 at
3.25%
PV of cash value
0.24444
$5.00
$0.99221
$4.961060
1.24444
$5.00
0.96098
4.804902
2.24444
$5.00
0.930731
4.653658
3.24444
$5.00
0.901435
4.507175
4.24444
$5.00
0.87306
4.365303
5.24444
$5.00
0.845579
4.227896
6.24444
$5.00
0.818963
4.094815
7.24444
$5.00
0.793184
3.965922
8.24444
$5.00
0.768217
3.841087
9.24444
$5.00
0.744036
3.720181
10.24444
$5.00
0.720616
3.603081
11.24444
$105.00
0.697933
73.28300
Total
Lecture 5
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$120.028080
19
AI = $5
[ 136/180] = $ 3.777778
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Repayment Schemes
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Annuities (contd)
Separating interest and principal
components:
2N
P0
t 1
1 ( R / 2)
Par
1 ( R / 2)
2N
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Annuities (contd)
Example
A bond currently sells for $870, pays $70 per year
(Paid semiannually), and has a par value of $1,000.
The bond has a term to maturity of ten years.
What is the yield to maturity?
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Annuities (contd)
Example (contd)
Solution: Using a financial calculator and the following input
provides the solution:
N
PV
PMT
FV
CPT I
= 20
= $870
= $35
= $1,000
= 4.50
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1 i N
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APR
'Annual Percentage Rate - APR'
The annual rate that is charged for borrowing (or
made by investing), expressed as a single
percentage number that represents the actual
yearly cost of funds over the term of a loan. This
includes any fees or additional costs associated
with the transaction.
Loans or credit agreements can vary in terms of
interest-rate structure, transaction fees, late
penalties and other factors. A standardized
computation such as the APR provides borrowers
with a bottom-line number they can easily compare
to rates charged by other potential lenders.
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APR contd.
Credit card companies are allowed to advertise
interest rates on a monthly basis (e.g. 2% per
month), but are also required to clearly state
the APR to customers before any agreement is
signed. For example, a credit card company
might charge 1% a month, but the APR is 1% x
12 months = 12%. This differs from annual
percentage yield, which also takes compound
interest into account.
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Illustration
The price of a zero coupon bond that matures in
10 years with a maturity value of $ 1000, when
required yield rate is 8.6% is
$1000[1/(1.043)20 =$ 430.83
Note for computation the required yield has been divided
by 2 i.e., 4.3% the number of coupon payments is
considered to be semi-annual
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