Project Simulation, Project

Monitoring & Control

Rohit Kapoor
A Project Simulation
Example
Activit Preceed Completion
y Activity ing Times (in
Symbol Description Activity Weeks)
A Site Excavation - 2
B Foundations A 3
Underground
C Utilities A 7
Plumbing: Stage
D 1 B 4
E Framing B 5
F Roofing E 3
G Electrical Work F 3
H Inferior Walls D, G 4
Plumbing: Stage
I 2 H 2
Exterior
J Finishing F 6
K Landscaping C, I, J 2
 Simulation Approach
Step 1: Identify all paths through the
network
Four paths?
 Simulation Approach
Contd.
Step 2: Establish probability
distribution for all project activities
Activity A 7 9 10 11 14 Activity G 12 14 15 16 18
Probabilit Probabilit
y 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 y 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1

Activity B 10 15 20 Activity H 15 18 20 22 24
Probabilit Probabilit
y 0.3 0.4 0.3 y 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2

Activity C 30 33 35 38 42 Activity I 7 10 12
Probabilit Probabilit
y 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 y 0.2 0.6 0.2

Activity D 16 18 20 22 25 Activity J 27 30 33 36
Probabilit Probabilit
y 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 y 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2
 Simulation Approach
Contd.
Use Excel Function rand() to
generate activity times
Project Monitoring &
Control
Rohit kapoor
Result from WBS
Activities, Time, Cost & Labor
Requirements
A Network

2, 60 5

3, 75
2

2, 40
4, 60 5, 50
6

4 1, 40
1

4, 80
2, 50 8

5, 100

3, 60
3 7
 Time Scaled Network
(Early Start)

Time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Months

30 25
5

20 15 10 40
1 2 4 6 8
20

25 20 20
3 7

Cost 45 45 85 85 80 80 55 30 30 30 10 40 K Rs./Month
Cum. Cost 45 90 175 260 340 420 475 505 535 565 575 615 K Rs.
 Time Scaled Network
(Late Start)

Time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Months

30
25
5

20 15 10 40
1 2 4 6 8
20

25 20 20
3 7

Cost 20 20 40 40 35 35 60 80 75 75 75 60 K Rs./Month
Cum. Cost 20 40 80 120 155 190 250 330 405 480 555 615 K Rs.
Monitoring
Indicators of project progress
Performance
Time
Cost
There has to be a common reference
for
A-B-C Curves

Budgeted cost schedule Curve A

Actual cost incurred till date Curve B
Value of work completed till date
Curve C
Cost Overrun
Time Overrun
Example
Reviewing the project at the end of
the 3rd month
Budgeted cost = 175
Actual money spend = 150
Value of work completed = 65
Work - Package (1, 2) completed = 40
Work - Package (2, 4) & (2, 5) not started =
0
Work - Package (1, 3) is 50% completed =
25
Analysis
Time overrun = (3 1.44) = 1.55
months behind
Cost overrun = (150 65)/65 =
130.76% increase
CPI = 65/150 = 0.433
SPI = 65/175 = 0.37