Irans

Nuclear
Ambitions
and West Asia at
Large

Bharat C. Jain
Triumphant Institute of
www.time4education.com
Management Education Pvt. Ltd.
 Irans Vital
Area
Population
Statistics
16.48 lakh sq. km.
7.8 crore
Population growth 1.29% (2013)
rate
GDP (nominal) $402 billion; Global Rank 20
GDP (PPP) $1.28 trillion; Global Rank 17
GDP growth rate -2.2% in 13; 2% in 14
Per capita income $4769 (nom.); $16,165 (PPP)
(13)
Forex Reserves Approx. $70 billion
Labour Force 24 million
Unemployment 10.4%
 Iran: Basic fact-
sheet
Largest Shia republic; rivals
Saudi Arabia for hegemony over
Islamic World

Ruled by Clerical Administration

since 1979
Islamic Revolution

Views U.S. & Israel as enemies of

Islam
 Iran v West: Nuked
Accused relationship
by IAEA/U.S./EU of
pursuing nuke weapons program;
charge denied by Iran

Tehran says its nuke program is

peaceful & aimed at civil energy
generation

IAEA asks Iran open its nuke

facilities to
inspections

Iran ignores international demands

for rollback of nuclear program
Irans Nuclear Sites
 Important
sidelights
Iran - member of the NPT

NPT forbids members other than

P5 from owning/pursuing nukes

As IAEA member, it should abide

by its rules

Desperately to get into WTO, a

move stymied by the West
 U.S./EU/UN
Sanctions
No country can buy energy resources from
Iran

Ban on supply of nuke-related technology

& materials to Iran

Freeze on assets of key Iranian individuals

& companies

No business/financial transactions with

Iran; if any country/company is found
violating this rule, then such entity will be
 Impact of Sanctio
Crippled Irans fragile economy;
massive scarcity of essential
goods, incl. medicines

Leading to flight of foreign capital

Getting difficult to export energy (oil

& gas), its
Most important forex earner

All this has pushed economy into

severe crisis
 What about
negotiations?
Talks between Iran & E3 (Britain,
France, & Germany) for several years

E3, backed by the U.S., adopts carrot

& stick approach in talks with Iran
Carrot: Back Irans entry into WTO &
end sanctions
Stick: More stringent sanctions

But.... Iran remains

intransigent; talks hit a
wall.
 The Israel facto
Iran calls for wiping Israel off the map of
the world

Iran supports anti-Israel Islamic militant

groups like Hezbollah; proxy war

Israel hints at military strike at Irans

nuke facilities to destroy them; Israel puts
pressure on the U.S. for military strike

Cyber warfare Stuxnet

P5+1 and
Iran:
Rivals get
talking!
Interim Deal: Impact
 Geopolitical Impact of
Final
Shift in Deal
regional
alliances
U.S.-Iran convergence
U.S.-Israel/SA divergence
Syria Bashar may survive

Iraq: U.S. okay for greater Iranian

role

Afghanistan: Iran supports non-

Taliban actors
Possible Scenario: Military
action
Iran risks possible military
confrontation with the U.S. & Israel

Iraq-type invasion by the U.S.

(aided by Israel & NATO) will try to
replace the Clerical Setup with a
pro-West govt

While this appears far-fetched, it is

on the U.S. table
THANK YOU!