The Thrill of

Analytics in IPL

Whatll be the Par Score in IPL 2017?

Group Bazinga

Abhilash Dutta FT172001

Jyoti Kumari FT172037
Akanksha Agarwal
FT172006
Ankur Rao FT172016
Samhita Dhar FT172072

IPL 2017 Par Score 2

Introduction
The Indian Premier League (IPL) is
slated to bring forth another
sizzling edition in 2017.
IPL T-20 offers some incredible
opportunity for sophisticated
analytics, from predicting the
winner to trying to gauge which
batsman/bowler would become
the most valuable player of the
tournament.
But an important question that
comes to mind.
What is the Par Score in an
IPL 2017 Par Score 3
Data Source
The data has been collected and collated from
espncricinfo.com, iplt20.com and cricsheet.com.

All the first innings score for all matches for all teams has
been gathered year wise, starting from 2008 to 2016.

Based on the first innings score, the Result (Win/Loss) has

been determined.

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Data Cleaning
After consolidating the data, we had a total of 573 match
results to work with.

But not all matches couldve been taken into account

owing to incomplete overs, Duckworth-Lewis method for
rain hindrance/poor lighting conditions.

So the data has been cleaned and weve removed 10 such

occurrences.

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Some Statistical Insights First
Innings Score

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Some Statistical Insights (cont.)
One can see that the average score in the first innings has
gone up since 2011 and that is a welcome sign. Overall it
means that the scoring efficiency is increasing in this
version of the sport. The average score from all seasons is
160 and in a nave manner, we could infer that this is the
par score.

Note: We would define the par score as one where the

team has at least a 50% chance of winning the game.

IPL 2017 Par Score 7

IPL 2017 Par Score 8
Some Statistical Insights (cont.)
Now we know from Statistics that the average may not lie
just in the centre. If the distribution is skewed, the
average is not necessarily a measure of the central
tendency and, in those instances, a more reliable measure
of the central tendency is the median. In this case, the
median of first innings score is 160 which is the same as
the average. In other words, it means that the first innings
scores are symmetrically distributed.

IPL 2017 Par Score 9

IPL 2017 Par Score 10
Some Statistical Insights (cont.)
The bell curve distribution of first innings scores mean
that there is an equal probability for a team to score on
either side of the mean. This curve however does not tell
us the probability of winning given a first innings score.

IPL 2017 Par Score 11

Model
Logistic Regression has been used on the Result and the
First Innings Scores for all the years to come up with below
model using R studio.

Probability for all the scores were calculated and the S-

curve was fitted with the above equation.
The S-curve of probability of winning and the First score
states that chances to win increases proportionately with
the increase in First inning score for all the teams.

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Fitted Equation

The meeting point of

red line on the curve
shows the Par Score
i.e. Score with 50%
175 probability of
winning.
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Model Insights
Using this equation, one can verify that the score where the
probability of winning is 50% is 175.In other words, the
Par Score for IPL 2017 should be 175, which is higher
than the Par Score of 163 before the start of IPL 2016.
This signifies that the game has become more batsman
friendly, with barren pitches and shorter boundaries,
facilitating easier run scoring.
The probability of winning rises quite sharply as the score
increases. Whereas the probability of winning is 50% at 175, it
rises to almost 60% for another 13 runs. This explains why the
runs scored in the last 2 or 3 overs are so important.
IPL 2017 Par Score 14
Model Individual Teams
We also validated the outcome from the S-curve by
calculating the average First Innings Scores for each team
and then comparing the predicted winning ratio (based on
the S-Curve formula) with the actual winning ratio (in the
next slide).

As expected, there are some deviations but, in general,

the predicted values are quite close to the actual ratios.

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Recommendation

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Limitations of the Model
The model does not takes into account the other factors
as pitch condition, weather condition, changes in squad,
bowling strength of team, opponents ability to score and
so on, which also affect the chances of winning or loosing
the game.

The model only presents the probability and provides

insight on what first inning score can give greater
probability of winning and does not assures a score as
winningIPLscore.
2017 Par Score 18
Future Scope
The model can be improved by taking into accounts the
various factors mentioned in the previous slide.

The model can be modified to predict how the probability

of the team which batted first changes once the other
team starts batting.

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