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Apakah Teori Antrian?

Barisan orang atau kendaraan yang


menunggu sesuatu
Teori Antrian: Perumusan Matematis
dari suatu barisan menunggu dengan
menggunakan model untuk
menunjukkan hasil, dan menunjukkan
peluang, di dalam proses kedatangan,
pelayanan, dan keberangkatan
Outline
1. Teori Dasar
2. Poisson Distribution
3. Notasi dan Istilah
4. Penerapan
5. Analisis
a. Secara Grafis
b. Secara Numerik
6. Contoh
Dasar Teori
Antrian
Microscopic traffic flow
Arrivals: Frekuensi kedatangan dalam antrian
Uniform or random

Departures: Jumlah rata-rata kendaraan yang


dapat dilayani selama suatu periode tertentu.
Uniform or random

Service rate
Departure channels

Discipline
FIFO and LIFO are most popular
FIFO is more prevalent in traffic engineering
2. Distribution
Count distribution
Uses discrete values
Different than a continuous distribution

P n
t
n
e t

n!
P(n) = probability of exactly n vehicles arriving over time t
n = number of vehicles arriving over time t
= average arrival rate
t = duration of time over which vehicles are counted
Poisson Ideas
Probability of exactly 4 vehicles arriving
P(n=4)

Probability of less than 4 vehicles arriving


P(n<4) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3)

Probability of 4 or more vehicles arriving


P(n4) = 1 P(n<4) = 1 - P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3)

Amount of time between arrival of successive


vehicles

P 0 P h t
t
0
e t t
e e qt 3600

0!
Vehicle arrivals at the Olympic National Park main
gate are assumed Poisson distributed with an
average arrival rate of 1 vehicle every 5 minutes.
What is the probability of the following :
1. Exactly 2 vehicles arrive in a 15 minute interval?
2. Less than 2 vehicles arrive in a 15 minute interval?
3. More than 2 vehicles arrive in a 15 minute
interval?

P n
0.20 veh min t
n
e 0.20 veh min t

n!
From HCM 2000
Exactly 2: P 2
0.20 15
2
e 0.20 15
0.224 22.4%
2!

Less than 2: P n 2 P 0 P1
0.049 0.448

More than 2: P n 2 1 P 0 P1 P 2
0.25

0.20
Probability of Occurance

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Arrivals in 15 minutes
0.25

Mean = 0.2 vehicles/minute


0.20
Probability of Occurance

Mean = 0.5 vehicles/minute

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Arrivals in 15 minutes
1.0

0.9
Mean = 0.2 vehicles/minute
0.8 Mean = 0.5 vehicles/minute
Probability of Excedance

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Time Between Arrivals (minutes)
NOTASI dan ISTILAH
N = Jumlah kendaraan dalam sistem.
Pn = Probabilitas kepastian n kendaraan dalam sistem.
= Jumlah rata-rata kendaraan yang datang per satuan waktu.
= Jumlah rata-rata kendaraan yang dilayani per satuan waktu.
Po = Probabilitas tidak ada kendaraan dalam sistem.
P = Tingkat intensitas fasilitas pelayanan.
L = Jumlah rata-rata pelangan yang diharapkan dalam sistem.
Lq = Jumlah kendaraan yang diharapkan menunggu dalam antrian.
W = Waktu yang diharapkan oleh kendaraan selama dalam sistem.
Wq = Waktu yang diharapkan kendaraan selama menunggu
1/ = Waktu rata-rata pelayanan.
1A = Waktu rata-rata antar kedatangan.
s = Jumlah fasilitas pelayanan
Konfigurasi Sistem Antrian
(1/2)
ngle Channel, Single Phase System

Single Channel, Multiphase System

13
Konfigurasi Sistem Antrian (2/2)
Multichannel, Single Phase System

Multichannel, Multiphase System

14
Queue Notation
Number of
Arrival rate nature service channels

X /Y / N
Departure rate nature
Popular notations:
D/D/1, M/D/1, M/M/1, M/M/N
D = deterministic distribution
M = exponential distribution
Queuing Theory
Applications
D/D/1
Use only when absolutely sure that both arrivals and
departures are deterministic
M/D/1
Controls unaffected by neighboring controls
M/M/1 or M/M/N
General case
Factors that could affect your analysis:
Neighboring system (system of signals)
Time-dependent variations in arrivals and departures
Peak hour effects in traffic volumes, human service rate
changes
Breakdown in discipline
People jumping queues! More than one vehicle in a lane!
Time-dependent service channel variations
Grocery store counter lines
D/D/1 Queue
Departure
Rate
Delay of nth arriving vehicle Arrival
Rate
Maximum queue
Vehicles

Maximum delay

Total vehicle delay

Queue at time, t1

t1 Time
Queue Analysis
Numerical
M/D/1
Average length of queue 2
Q
21

1
Average time waiting in queue w
2 1

1 2
Average time spent in system t

2 1
1.0

= arrival rate = departure rate
Queue Analysis
Numerical
M/M/1
Average length of queue 2
Q
1

1
Average time waiting in queue w

1
Average time spent in system t

1.0

= arrival rate = departure rate


Queue Analysis
Numerical
M/M/N
Average length of queue P0 N 1 1
Q 2
N ! N 1 N

Q 1
Average time waiting in queue w

Q
Average time spent in system t


N 1.0

= arrival rate = departure rate


M/M/N More Stuff
N 1.0
Probability of having no vehicles
1
P0 N 1
nc N

nc 0 nc !

N ! 1 N

Probability of having n vehicles

P0
n n P0
Pn for n N Pn n N for n N
n! N N!

Probability of being in a queue


P0 N 1
Pn N
N ! N 1 N
= arrival rate = departure rate
Example 1
You are entering Bank of America Arena at Hec Edmunson Pavilion to
watch a basketball game. There is only one ticket line to purchase
tickets. Each ticket purchase takes an average of 18 seconds. The
average arrival rate is 3 persons/minute.
Find the average length of queue and average waiting time in queue
assuming M/M/1 queuing.
You are now in line to get into the Arena. There are 3 operating
turnstiles with one ticket-taker each. On average it takes 3 seconds
for a ticket-taker to process your ticket and allow entry. The average
arrival rate is 40 persons/minute.
Find the average length of queue, average waiting time in queue
assuming M/M/N queuing.
What is the probability of having exactly 5 people in the system?
You are now inside the Arena. They are passing out Harry the Husky
doggy bags as a free giveaway. There is only one person passing
these out and a line has formed behind her. It takes her exactly 6
seconds to hand out a doggy bag and the arrival rate averages
9 people/minute.
Find the average length of queue, average waiting time in queue, and
average time spent in the system assuming M/D/1 queuing.
Primary References
Mannering, F.L.; Kilareski, W.P. and Washburn, S.S. (2003).
Principles of Highway Engineering and Traffic Analysis, Third
Edition (Draft). Chapter 5

Transportation Research Board. (2000). Highway Capacity


Manual 2000. National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
Sistem Pelayanan
Multiple
Probabilitas tidak adanya kendaraan dalam

suatu sistem antrian (baik sedang dalam P0 1 -
antrian maupun sedang dilayani)

Probabilitas terdapat n kendaraan dalam


n

suatu sistem antrian Pn .P 0



Rata-rata jumlah kendaraan dalam suatu
sistem antrian L
( - )

2
Rata-rata jumlah kendaraan yang berada
dalam baris antrian Lq
( - )
Waktu rata-rata dihabiskan satu kendaraan
1 L
dalam keseluruhan sistem antrian (yaitu, W

waktu menunggu dan dilayani)
Analisis antrian merupakan bentuk analisis
probabilitas. Oleh karena itu, hasil dari analisis
antrian disebut sebagai karakteristik operasi.
Karakteristik operasional merupakan nilai
rata-rata dari karakteristik yang
menggambarkan kinerja suatu sistem antrian.
Karakteristik operasional ini menghasilkan
statistik operasi yang digunakan oleh
seseorang untuk mengambil putusan dalam
suatu operasi yang mengandung masalah
antrian.