GLOBAL WARMING

Greenhouse Gases
Effects
Evidence for
Remedies
Socio-Economic Issues
Significance of Methane
Kyoto Conference
 SOURCES OR CAUSES OF
INCREASES IN GASES (1)

Carbon Dioxide
Fossil fuel combustion
Deforestation
Methane
Flooded soil crops (e.g. rice)
Fossil fuel mining
Ruminants
Landfills
Organic wastes
Human stimulated eutrophication
 SOURCES OR CAUSES OF
INCREASES IN GASES (2)

Nitrogen Oxides
Nitrogen fertilizers
Fossil fuel combustion
Chlorofluorohydrocarbons
Release of refrigerant CFCs
 CONCENTRATIONS AND WARMING
POTENTIAL OF GREENHOUSE GASES

Gas Conc., Atm. Half- Warming

ppm life, yrs. Potential,
%
CO2 360 50-100 66
CH4 1.8 10-12 18
N2O 1.1 150 11
CFCs - 16 5
 UNCERTAINTIES IMPACTING DEGREE
OF WARMING EXPECTED

Atmospheric sensitivity: temperature

associated with doubling of CO2 conc.
Earths carbon cycle
Projected CO2 emissions in the future
Methane lifetime
Projected growth of methane emissions
Effect of CFC substitutes
Equilibrium earth temperature in response to
gas influence
 Potential Effects of Global
Warming

Elevated temperatures of the biosphere

melting of polar ice
increase in sea level (flooding of major cities)
increase of methane from permafrost
Weather extremes
more rainfall during shorter periods
more evaporation and soil moisture deficiencies
Ecosystem disruption
stress and death of vegetation
migration of animals
Human Health
heat stress
migration of disease vectors
 SPECIFIC EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
(2.7oC FROM PRE-INDRUSTRIAL TO 2100) (1)

Sea levels rising by 0.5 1.5 m over the

next few decades and several meters in
the long term
More frequent weather extremes
producing floods, avalanches, run-off
water availability, soil erosion
Droughts, loss of soil moisture
Reduced precipitation in mid-latitude
regions of N. America and Eurasia
 SPECIFIC EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
(2.7oC FROM PRE-INDRUSTRIAL TO 2100) (2)

More stagnant air masses for longer

time periods
Severe impact on agricultural
productivity worldwide
Die off of unmanaged forests
Reduced stream flows
Increased mortality due to heat stress
and spread of infectious diseases
 EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL
WARMING (1)

Atmosphere CO2 levels have increased from 230 to

250 ppm (30% since pre-industrial and during
industrial age)
Atmospheric methane levels are increasing about
1% per year
Temperature of the earth surface has increased by
0.4oC
Temperature of ocean has increased by 0.5 oC
October 6, 1997 was the hottest temperature on
record for that time of the year
In 1995, >400 persons died of heat stroke in
Chicago
 EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL
WARMING (2)

Number of days with temperatures below freezing has dropped

from 90 in 1990 to 15 in 1997.
Storm and drought conditions are greater than can be explained
by normal weather fluctuations
5-10% increase in precipitation in the 20th century
Floods in the U.S. and China have been 10x more frequent in
the past 10 years
Ocean sea level has risen 0.5 cm in last decade, 25 cm in last
century
China plans to build one 1,000 MW power plant per month for
the next four years
Coal energy releases twice as much CO2 as gas
EVIDENCE OPPOSING GREENHOUSE
GAS GLOBAL WARMING (1)

Temperature trends and climate

models
Newer models are predicting lesser
temperature increase trends
Increase in the earths surface has
been far less during the past 150
years than the future trends predicted
by models
EVIDENCE OPPOSING GREENHOUSE
GAS GLOBAL WARMING (2)

Natural climate change takes

thousands of years
Science, October 2, 1998. Around
12,500 years ago, the temperature
rose by more than 20oF in only 50
years.
 EVIDENCE OPPOSING GREENHOUSE GAS
GLOBAL WARMING (3)

Emissions from the U.S. are the

primary cause of greenhouse
related warming
Science, October 16, 1998. The U.S.
removes more carbon (about 2 billion
tons) than it releases (about 1.5 billion
tons) because of tremendous re-
growth of eastern forests acting as
carbon sinks.
 EVIDENCE OPPOSING GREENHOUSE
GAS GLOBAL WARMING (4)

Nature, March 11, 2000. Overall, CO2 and

temperature has remained fairly constant over the
past 11,000 years. Temperature has been fairly
stable. CO2 has varied greatly within normal limits.

Science, March 12, 1999. When the earth shifts from

glacial to warm periods (every 100,000 years),
temperature increases are normal and precede
releases of CO2. The link between human activity
and warmer temperatures is therefore uncertain.
 EARTHS CLIMATE HISTORY

Increases of 2.15.7oC are predicted due to greenhouse

gases
A 1-1.5oC global average warming would represent a
climate not experienced since the beginning of
agricultural civilization (6,000 years ago)
A 1-2.5oC warming represents a climate not experienced
since 125,000 years ago when small human communities
existed Such a climate seemed to partially disintegrate
the West Antarctic Shield, raising sea levels 5-7 m
A 3-4oC warming has not been experienced since
humans appeared on Earth (2 million years ago). The
last time Earth experienced such a climate was about 3-5
million years ago.
 REMEDIES FOR GLOBAL
WARMING

Reduce use of fossil fuels

Reduce energy consumption
Replace fossil fuels with energy forms that dont
release net carbon dioxide (e.g., solar, biomass,
wind, hydroelectric, nuclear)
Remove carbon dioxide from combustion gases
Increase standing crop of carbon-fixing plants
reduce deforestation
Reduce anthropogenic sources of methane (flooded
crops, releases fossil fuel mining, landfills, organic
wastes, ruminants)
Reduce release of N from fertilizers and combustion
 SOCIOECONOMIC ISSUES

Developed countries use most of the fossil energy.

U.S. has 4% of the world population and uses 25% of the
energy
Developing countries use about 10% of energy per
capita as the U.S.
In the U.S., energy use is 36% for building, 32% for
transportation, and 32% for industry
Power plants waste energy ( a 400 MW plant wastes 800
MW of heat energy)
Developed countries have developed on the basis of use
of energy and deforestation. How can we ask emerging
countries not to do the same?
 IMPORTANCE OF METHANE IN
MITIGATION OF GLOBAL WARMING (1)

principal greenhouse gas

concentrations are rising
potent contributor to global
warming
short-term impact of mitigation
a few sources account for large
portion of emissions
 IMPORTANCE OF METHANE IN
MITIGATION OF GLOBAL WARMING (2)

stabilization of concentrations
would have similar impact as
stabilization of carbon dioxide
mitigation would have significant
environmental and economic
benefits
technologies are available for
reduction
 NATURAL SOURCES OF
ATMOSPHERIC METHANE*

Source Emissions
Estimate Range

Wetlands 109 70-170

Termites 20 10-50
Oceans 10 5-20
Freshwater 5 1-25
Gas Hydrates 5 0-5
Permafrost 0 ?
Total From Natural
Sources 150 100-300
Total Methane Emissions 505 400-610
*Tg CH4-C per year
ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES
OF ATMOSPHERIC METHANE*
Sources Estimate Range
Coal Mining, Natural
Gas, Petrol. Indust. 100 70-120
Rice Farming 60 20-150
Domesticated
Livestock 80 65-100
Livestock Manure 25 10-20
Wastewater
Treatment 25 20-25
Landfills 30 20-70
Biomass Burn. 40 20-80
Total 360 400-610**
*Tg CH4-C per year
**Based on atm. conc., not sum of sources
ANTHROPOGENIC METHANE EMISSIONS
FROM HIGHEST FIVE COUNTRIES*

Country Total Largest Source

Source Emission
China 50 rice 21
CIS 44 gas and oil 26
India 30 rice 16
U.S. 27 landfills 10
Brazil 14 livestock 7
*Tg CH4-C per year
 ESTIMATES OF LANDFILL METHANE
EMISSIONS FROM DIFFERENT COUNTRIESA

Country Waste Estimated Estimated Estimated

Landfilled Organic Missions, Biochemical
Annually, wet Content, TgCy-1 Methane
wt Tgy-1 Potential,
(AFDW) TgCy-1

U.S. 189(94) 60 8-12 8.6

China 166(24) 70 1.2-3.9 11.3

India 125(94) 60 0.2-0.8 8.6

 METHANE SOURCE FLUXES OF HIGH
UNCERTAINTY

decaying hardwood of live trees

termites and other wood-eating
insects
anthropogenic stimulated
eutrophication
landfills (underestimated)
 KYOTO CONFERENCE (1)

December 10, 1997

1500 delegates from 160 countries
Goal: to arrive at legally binding
treaty for global warming mitigation
Most developed countries would
increase emissions by 20% with a
business-as-usual policy
 KYOTO CONFERENCE (2)

Pre-conference Goals by Country by 2010

European Community, -15% C release
Japan, -15%
U.S., -3%
Australia, +18% (Howard: reducing to +4%
would cost $68 million dollars and tens of
thousands of jobs.)
Post-conference Goals
Developed Countries, -5
Australia, +8