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= 10.0
= 1.67
=
= 1.29
The Poisson Distribution Models Counts.
If events happen at a constant rate over time, the Poisson
Distribution gives
The Probability of X Number of
Events Occurring in a time T.
This distribution tells us the
Probability of All Possible Numbers of
Counts, from 0 to Infinity.
If X= # of counts per second, then the Poisson probability that
X = k (a particular count) is:
k e
p( X k )
l k!
the average number of counts per second.
Mean and Variance for the
Poisson Distribution
Its easy to show that for this distribution,
The Mean is:
Also, its easy to show that The Variance is:
l
L 2
10
Example
A production line produces 600 parts per hour with
an average of 5 defective parts an hour. If you test
every part that comes off the line in 15 minutes,what
is the probability of finding no defective parts (and
incorrectly concluding that your process is perfect)?
= (5 defects/hour)*(0.25 hour) =
= 1.25
p(x) = ( xe-)/(x!)
x = given number of defects
P(x = 0) = (1.25)0e-1.25)/(0!)
= e-1.25 = 0.287
= 28.7%
Comparison of the Binomial & Poisson
Distributions with Mean = 1
0.5 0.4
0.35
0.4
poisson 0.3
Probability
Probability
0.25
0.3 poisson
0.2
0.2 0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
0 1
N
2 m 3 4 5 mN
=5 = 15
= 25 = 35