Natural Hazards

Chapter 4
Natural Hazard
What is a Natural hazard? Why should we study it?
Natural events causing great loss of life or property
damage
2004: Asian Tsunami: >200,000
1970: Bangladesh Cyclone: 300,000
1976: China earthquake: 300,000
Different types of Natural Hazards:
Volcanism, earthquakes, Hurricane, tornado, Tsunami, Flooding,
Landslides
Damages from different types of Natural Hazards
Magnitude, frequency, catastrophe
Impact of a disaster is related to magnitude (how big) and
frequency (how often). These two are inversely related. Actual
damage depends on other factors too, such as population,
climate, landuse, geology etc etc.
Catastrophe: immense damage: recovery and rehabilitation is a
long invloved process
Damages from Natural Hazards in US
Benefits of Natural hazards
Flooding :
depositsfertile sediments in floodplains
Nourishes beaches
Volcano:
Adds landmass e.g., in Hawaii
Produces fertile soil
Created the atmosphere and hydrosphere
Evaluating Hazards
Fundamental Principles:
Hazards are repetitive and predictable
Risk Analysis is important for understanding
impact
Hazards are linked, e.g., volcano, earthquake,
tsunami, landslide, flooding, forest fire..
Human interference is magnifying damage
Consequences can be minimized
Disaster Prediction
Location:
e.g., Volcanoes and earthquakes along plate boundaries
Probability of occurrence
Hazards are cyclical,
With sufficient data probability of occurrence can be calculated
Precursor events
Volcanoes, earthquakes, landslide, flooding..often associated
with precursor events
Forecasting
Is possible by monitoring hazards e.g., hurricanes, tsunamis,
volcanic eruption etc
Warning
Should be issued even at the risk of the hazard not materializing
Risk Assesment
Risk Determination
Risk= probability X damage
Acceptable Risk
Risk-tolerance level of the society
Can vary: High for automobiles but low for nuclear accident
Problem and opportunities
Lack of long term data how do we calculate risk?
Information may be complex and difficult to analyze e.g., what is
the effect of radiation leak from a nuclear reactor?
Better risk assessment will lead to better decisions
Human Response to hazards
Reactive traditional response
Impact
Direct (People killed, property damaged affects individuals or small groups) and
Indirect effects (mental trauma, tax, donationsaffects population)
Stages:
Emergency: Search and Rescue, shelter, opening roads
Restoration: water and power, return to home, cleaning of rubble
Reconstruction I: Return to pre-disaster level
Reconstruction II: improvement
Rapid Restoration can be counter-productive
Anticipatory a better way to reduce damage
Hazard perception by people and by government
Land-use planning: avoid hazardous locations
Insurance: often not extended to high risk areas
Evacuation
Disaster preparedness
Artificial control
Difficult, expensive and often cause more harm
Channelization of Kissimmee river
Sea walls, dams
Future trends
Global Climate and hazard
Global warming is increasing weather related
disasters
Population and hazard
Greaterpopulation density leads to higher risk
Change in land-use pattern magnifies
damages
Recent floods in Haiti related to deforestation
. Global climate and hazards

A. Global and regional climate change may

significantly affect incidence of storms,
landslides, drought, fires
1. how climate change may affect magnitude and
frequency of natural events
a. sea level rise may increase coastal erosion
b. shift in food production areas
c. expansion of deserts and semi-deserts
2.warming of oceans will channel more energy from
ocean water into atmosphere
likely will increase hazardous weather-related processes
Population increase, land-use
change, and natural hazards
A. Population increase and hazardous events
1. as population increases, need for planning to minimize losses from
natural disasters also increases
a. more people at risk of an event
b. forces more people into hazardous areas
B. Land-use change and hazardous events
1. past half-century has seen dramatic increase in great catastrophes
2. vast majority of natural disaster deaths between 1985-1995 were in
developing world
a. Hurricane Mitch: hillsides stripped because of heavy rains on cleared and
burned land
b. Yangtze River: timber harvest and conversion to agriculture has increased
flood hazard