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12 3 STPM TERM 3 MATHEMATICS(T)

COURSEWORK

TOPIC: MATHEMATICAL MODELLING

NAME: WOO XIANGJUN

CLASS: 6 ADIL
Introduction
Statistics is the mathematical science involved in the application of
quantitative principles to the collection, analysis and the presentation of
numerical data.
With statistics, we are able to utilize data from some population in order
to describe it meaningfully, to draw conclusions from it, and make
informed decisions.

A sample is a smaller group of members of a population selected to


represent the population.
To apply statistics to learn things about a population, the sample must be
random.
A random sample every member of a population has an equal chance of
being selected.

To study the heritability of height, a random sampling method can be


applied.
Human height is a quantitative trait that is commonly studied due to its
ease of measurement.
METHODOLOG
A list of all 300 upper secondary students was obtained and each student Picture

Y was assigned a specific identification number from 1 to 300. Picture

These 300 tickets were put in a large container and drawn without
Random replacement.
sample At each draw, the tickets were thoroughly shuffled. 50 girl students
height were obtained, along with their parents height.
This method is called lottery method. The sample achieved is now
random.
Population variance is unknown, the unbiased estimate is
calculated by the formula:
Confidence =-
interval The 6 confidence intervals 80%,85%,90%,93%,95%, and
98% were chosen. The approximate range for the mean height of
students at each confident interval were then calculated by the
formula:

()

The predicted height of each student were calculated using the given
formula:
Predicted (Fathers height+Mothers height) 6.35
height To classify the predicted height, the range for average category was
first determined.
(Mean standard deviation, Mean + standard deviation)
Students with height below the range are classified as short while
students with height above the range are classified as tall.
METHODOLO Picture
Picture
Picture
Picture

GY
Students The chi-square test was used to find out the goodness-of-fit
height test between
modeled by the students actual height and predicted height.
parents Null and alternative hypothesis were stated.
height The observed and expected frequencies were tabulated and
the test value was calculate by the formula:

By referring to the table, the critical value was obtained


based on the degree of freedom and the significance level.
A conclusion was then made to decide whether to reject the
null hypothesis.
RESULT
Result

A list of all 300 upper secondary students was


obtained and each student was assigned a
specific identification number from 1 to 300.
These 300 tickets were put in a large container
and drawn without replacement.
At each draw, the tickets were thoroughly
shuffled. 50 girl students height were obtained,
along with their parents height.
This method is called lottery method. The
sample achieved is now random.
Result

Table 1: Height of the students and


Result

For 80% confidence interval,

(1- 80%
The population variance is unknown, an unbiased estimate is
made. 1- = 0.80
=-
= 0.2
= 7912 =1253752

=
= 0.1

= 1.282
=- =()
= 35860 =( )
= ( 1.282)
Since n30, central limit theorem can = (157.15,)
be applied.

Therefore, it is 80% confident that the mean


height of the students is in between 157.15 cm
and 159.33 cm.
Result

For 85% confidence interval, For 90% confidence interval,

(1- 85% (1- 90%

1- = 0.85 1- = 0.90

= 0.15 = 0.10

= 0.075 = 0.05

= 1.439 = 1.645
=() =()
=( ) =( )
= ( 1.439) = ( 1.645)
= (157.02,) = (156.85,)

Therefore, it is 85% confident that the Therefore, it is 90% confident that the mean
mean height of the students is in between height of the students is in between 156.85 cm
157.02 cm and 159.46 cm. and 159.63 cm.
Result

For 93% confidence interval, For 95% confidence interval,

(1- 93% (1- 95%

1- = 0.93 1- = 0.95

= 0.07 = 0.05

= 0.035 = 0.025

= 1.812 = 1.960
=() =()
=( ) =( )
= ( 1.812) = ( 1.9)
= (156.71,) = (156.58,)

Therefore, it is 85% confident that the Therefore, it is 95% confident that the mean
mean height of the students is in between height of the students is in between 156.58 cm
156.71 cm and 159.78 cm. and 159.90 cm.
Result

For 98% confidence interval,

(1- 98%

1- = 0.98

= 0.02

= 0.01

= 2.326
=()
=( )
= ( 2)
= (156.26,160.21)

Therefore, it is 98% confident that the


mean height of the students is in between
156.27 cm and 160.21 cm.
Result

Predicted height: (fathers height + mothers For example, Student 1, (173+169) -6.35
height) -6.35 = 164.65

Table 2: Predicted height of students


Result

Standard deviation =
= 7844.5
= 6.3608
= 1232706.125
Interval for average height
=(Mean standard deviation, Mean + standard
deviation)
Mean = =(156.89-6.3608,156.89+6.3608)
= =(150.53, 163.25)

= (151,163)
= 156.89
Students that have a predicted height less than 151
cm is classified as short.
=-
=- Students that have a predicted height more than 163
=40460 cm is classified as tall.
Result


Interval for average height
Classificat Height Frequency
ion (cm) =( )
=(158.24-5.9883,158.24+5.9883)
Short 6 =(152.2517,164.2283)
= (152,164)
Average 151-164 36
Table 3:Tall
Frequency of each classification
8 of
Students that have an actual height less than 152 cm
predicted
is classified as short.
height
Students that have an actual height more than 164
= 7912 cm is classified as tall.
Classificatio Height (cm) Frequency
=
n
= Short 7
= 158.24 Average 152-164 33
= 35.860
Tall
Table 10actual
4: Frequency of each classification of
= = 5.9883
Result

- stat =
=0.9167
Actual height of students (cm)
= Predicted height of students (cm) Degree of freedom, v = k-1
= 3-1
= The students actual height can =2
be modeled by Referring to Chi-square distribution table,
predicted height
= The students actual height cannot be

modeled
Categor
y by predicted height
Significance level is 0.05
Short 7 6 0.1667
Average 33 36 0.2500
Tall 10 8 0.5000
= 50 = 50 =0.9167
Result


Since the chi-square test states that the students
height can be modeled by predicted height by
category. Hence, it can be said that the given formula
(fathers height + mothers height) -6.35
is suitable to be used to predict a persons height from
their parents height.


A persons height is indeed inherited from ones
parent.
Reject if -stat 5.991

Since the -stat = 0.9167 does not lie in the A person who has inherited a number of dominant
critical region ( 5.991), there is insufficient alleles for tallness has the potential to grow tall.
evidence to reject at 5% significance level.
However, environmental factors and lack of
Hence, the students height can be nutrients may affect the growth of a person, causing
modeled by predicted height by category. deviation from the predicted height.
CONCLUSION
The 50 upper secondary girl students were selected randomly by utilizing the lottery
method.
Height of students in the range of 148cm and 168cm.
Height of students father in the range of 158cm and 188 cm.
Height of students mother in the range of 144 cm and 178cm.

6 confident intervals 80%, 85%, 90%, 93%, 95% and 98% were calculated.
The higher the percentage of confidence interval, the wider is the height interval.
Estimated is in the center of each confidence interval, hence population mean estimates
without much error.

The predicted height of the students are in the range of 144.15 cm and 170.15 cm, it was
then categorized into 3 categories short, average and tall.
6 students were short, 36 students were average, 8 students were tall.
Majority lies in the average category.

The actual height of the students were also categorized.


7 students were short, 33 students were average, 10 students were tall.
CONCLUSION
The result of the chi-square test shows that was not rejected.
The students actual height can be modeled by the predicted height, which
means human height is inheritable.
If one possess a couple of autosomal dominant alleles for tallness, one has a high chance
of being tall.

Statistics, sampling and chi-square can be applied in various fields.


A CPA performing an audit uses sampling to determine the accuracy of account balances
in the financial statements.
Medical researches also determine the effectiveness of a certain drug based on the
sample data.

In business, when a budget is forecasted, revenues and cost have to be estimated.


By finding confidence intervals of these values, a business can have the information it
needs and prepare for the possibility that its estimation may be incorrect.

The Chi-square test is also utilized in biology to study Mendelian inheritance.


REFERENCES
CliffsNotes
https://
www.cliffsnotes.com/study-guides/statistics/sampling/population
s-samples-parameters-and-statistics

Tusculum
http://
www.tusculum.edu/faculty/home/ivanlare/html/genetics/chisquar
e-master.html

ScientificAmerican
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-much-of-human-
height/

Department of Statistics
http://www.stat.fsu.edu/undergraduate-program

Pre-U Text STPM Mathematics(T) Third Term 2016


Soon Chin Loong, Lau Too Kya
Sasbadi Sdn Bhd., Malaysia, Petaling Jaya

Ace Ahead Mathematiccs(T) Statistis STPM Text Third Term


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