Course Introduction:

Overview of Water Supply Forecasting

Practices

Kevin Werner, CBRFC

 Outline
Overview of the day
Introductions
Overview of forecast process
 Course Goals
Description of current and future
water supply forecast techniques
Interactive discussions on decision
making under uncertainty
Multi-directional discussions are
important to improve forecast and
decision making paradigms
 Course Agenda

Course materials:
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/shortcourse/agenda.htm
 Introductions
Name
What you do
What you want from this course
 Water Supply Forecast Overview
SWS (Statistical
Prediction) Official
ESP (Hydrologic Coordinate
(River
Model Prediction) d Forecast
Forecast
Centers)
VIPER (Statistical
(Water and
Prediction) Forecast
Climate Coordination
Center)

Other
Inputs
.
Decisions .
.
Water Managers and Users
.
Forecast Methods

Statistical Forecasting
Statistical Regression Equations
Primary NOAA/RFC forecast method from 1940s to mid 1990s.
Primary NRCS/NWCC forecast method
Historical Relationships between flow, snow, & precipitation (1971-2000+)
Tied to a fixed runoff period (inflexible)

Ensemble Simulation Model Forecasting

A component of a continuous conceptual model (NWSRFS)
Continuous real time inputs (temperature, precipitation, forecasts)
Accounts for soil moisture states (SAC-SMA) - drives runoff efficiency
Builds and melts snowpack (Snow-17) output feeds SAC-SMA
Flexible run date, forecast period, forecast parameters.
Evolving toward ESP as primary forecast tool at NOAA/RFCs
 Statistical 50%
exceedance
Forecast:
222 kac-ft

8
Ensemble 50%
exceedance
Forecast:
230 kac-ft

9
Forecast Coordination
Forecasts are coordinated with
NRCS on a monthly basis.
Forecasters at each agency compare
forecasts, analyze differences, and
come up with a official, coordinated
forecast.

NRCS Preferred NOAA Preferred

Coordinated
Forecast: Forecast:
Forecast:
235 kac-ft 225 kac-ft
230 kac-ft
10
 Water Supply Forecast Overview
SWS (Statistical
Prediction): 222 Official
KAF
ESP (Hydrologic Coordinate
(River
Model d Forecast:
Forecast
Centers) Prediction) : 230 230 KAF
KAF
VIPER (Statistical
Forecast
(Water and Prediction) : 236
Climate Coordination
Center) KAF
NOAA: 225 KAF
NRCS: 236 KAF
Other
Inputs
.
Decisions .
.
Water Managers and Users
.
NWS Western Water Supply /
Water Resources Outlook

2008 (version
2)

2009 (version 2010 (version 4):

3) wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov
 Water Supply Forecasts in Western National Water Resources Outlook
USA

Map Map

Forecast Overview Forecast Overview

Forecast Evolution
display of forecast and Ensemble Forecast
observed streamflow display tool for monthly
progression ESP forecasts

Ensemble Forecast
display tool for monthly
ESP forecasts

Verification Many,
many verification plots
and graphics

Climate variability
Streamflow / climate
index relationship plot
New Paradigms?
ESP & NRCS
SWS ESP
HEFS VIPER

NRCS

Forecaste Forecaste
r r

User User
 Todays Short Course
SWS (Statistical
Prediction) Official
ESP (Hydrologic Coordinate
(River
Model Prediction) d Forecast
Forecast
Centers)
VIPER (Statistical
(Water and
Prediction) Forecast
Climate Coordination
Center)

Statistical Water Supply Other

Prediction: Inputs
Dave Garen and Gus .
Goodbody, NRCS
Decisions .
2 hours .
Water Managers and Users
.
 Todays Short Course
SWS (Statistical
Prediction) Official
ESP (Hydrologic Coordinate
(River
Model Prediction) d Forecast
Forecast
Centers)
VIPER (Statistical
(Water and
Prediction) Forecast
Climate Coordination
Center)

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

Introduction:
Kevin Berghoff, NWRFC Other
Inputs
Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System and .
Decisions .
Forecast Verification advances:
James Brown, NWS/OHD .
Water Managers and Users
.
Hands on ESP and verification exercises:
Kevin Werner, CBRFC
Kristen Averyt, WWA
 Todays Short Course
Intro to Risk Based Decision Making:
BPA Case SWS (Statistical
Study
Prediction)
Travis Togo, BPA Official
ESP (Simulation Coordinate
Scenario
(River
Exercises
Model for Risk Based Decision
Prediction) d Forecast
Forecast
Making
Centers)
VIPER (Statistical
Kevin Werner, CBRFC
Kristen
(Water and
Prediction)
Averyt, WWA Forecast
Climate Coordination
Center)

Other
Inputs
.
Decisions .
.
Water Managers and Users
.
 Todays Short Course
Water Supply Forecasting and Climate
Change SWS (Statistical
Prediction)
Levi Brekke, USBR Official
ESP (Hydrologic Coordinate
(River
Model Prediction) d Forecast
Forecast
Centers)
VIPER (Statistical
(Water and
Prediction) Forecast
Climate Coordination
Center)

Other
Inputs
.
Decisions .
.
Water Managers and Users
.
 Course Goals
Description of current and future
water supply forecast techniques
Interactive discussions on decision
making under uncertainty
Multi-directional discussions are
important to improve forecast and
decision making paradigms
Questions?