Trip Generation-2

Dr. Muhammad Adnan

Definition
Category Analysis/Cross
Classification
It is based on estimating the
response (e.g. No. of trips per
household for a given purpose) as a
function of household attributes.
Based on the assumption that trip
generation rates are relatively stable
over time for certain household
stratifications.
Example of cross classification model
Model Specification
Cross classification is based on grouping the households in
different strata; for example, a specific cell is based on
household size and household income.
The trip production rate for that specific cell then is total
number of trips in that cell divided by the number of
household in that cell.
Categories basis
Choice of categories is based on the notion
that trip rate distribution for a particular
household type have its standard
deviation as minimum as possible.
Advantages of the Method
Cross-classification groupings are
independent of the zone system of the
study area.
No prior assumptions about the
relationship are required (i.e. they dont
even have to be monotonic, let alone
linear)
Relationship can differ in form from class
to class (e.g. the effect of changes in
household size for one or two car-owning
households may be different.)
Disadvantage of the method
It does not permit extrapolation beyond its
calibration strata.
There are no statistical goodness-of-fit measure
for the model.
It requires large sample sizes (25 household per
cell); otherwise cell values will vary in reliability.
There is no effective way to choose among
variables for classification, or choose best
groupings of a given variable; the minimization of
st. deviation process requires an extensive trial
and error procedure which may be considered
infeasible in practical studies.
If it is required to increase the number of
stratifying variables, it might be necessary to
increase the sample enormously.
Attraction Models (Example)

HBW TRIPS

Attraction per Employee

Retail Government Services Private Services

1.36 1.2 1.9

Questions (1)
The following table presents the data collected in the last
household survey (ten years ago) for three particular zone.
Zone 1, 2.0 r/HH, 1.0 W/hh, 50000 MI, 20000 P
Zone 2, 3.0 r/HH, 2.0 W/hh, 70000 MI, 60000 P
Zone 1, 2.5 r/HH, 2.0 W/hh, 100000 MI, 100000 P

Y=0.2 +0.5x1+1.1Z1; R-square=0.78

X1 = Number of workers in the household
Z1= dummy variable which is 1 for high income (>70,000)
otherwise zero

Faimly INCOME If the total number of trips are

structure generated today during peak hour
LOW HIGH
By the three zones are, 8200,24300
And 92500 respectively, which model is
1 or less 0.8 1.0 Best. Explain your answer
2 or more 1.2 2.3
Questions (2)
Given the following data, create a trip
generation model using EXCEL to
perform linear least square multiple
regression.

What is wrong with using all

"independent" variables at one time?

Which independent variable is best?

Explain.

If you see there is non-linear (y=axb)

relationship with a independent
variable how you will perform your
regression analysis.
Balancing Trip Productions and
Attractions