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CHAPTER 1
Introduction to Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics 3rd
Circular flow in two
sector model
17
Macroeconomics 3rd
Circular flow of income in three
sector model
18
Macroeconomics 3rd
Circular flow of income in three
sector model
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Macroeconomics 3rd
Circular flow of income in four
sector model
In real life, only four-sector economy
exists.The four-sector economy is
composed of following sectors, i.e.:
(i)Household sector,
(ii)Business sector,
(iii)The government, and
(iv)Transaction withrest of the
worldor foreign sector or external
sector. TMH Copyright 2010
20
Macroeconomics 3rd
Circular flow of income in four
sector model
21
Macroeconomics 3rd
22
CHAPTER 4
Measurement of
National Income
GDP = Market value of goods and services produced by the residents in the
country
plus incomes earned in the country by the foreigners
minus incomes received by residents of a country from abroad.
The
Or formula for converting nominal
,
GNP of a year into real GNP
CHAPTER 5
The Classical Theory of
Output and
Employment
1. No general overproduction or
underproduction
2. No unemployment under classical
system
CHAPTER 6
Keynesian Theory of Income
Determination: A Simple
Economy Model
82
Propensity to consume
The MPC or Marginal Propensity to Consume refers to the
fraction of additional income which is spent by the
consumer.
86
Planned and Actual
Investment
The first two are consciously planned (although plans can
change, and typically do during a recession);
inventory investment can be unplanned -- if a store fails to
sell what it had expected to, it winds up with more
inventory than it had expected.
Stores with unplanned inventory investment will cut back
on orders -- resulting in reduced production at the factory,
layoffs and recession.
NPV and IRR
Present Value refers to the current value of an expected
future stream of benefits by discounting them at a
particular rate.
It can be expressed by the formula: P=S/(1+r)n where
P=Present value, S=Future value, r=rate of interest and
n=time period.
Net Present Value can be calculated as Present Value-Initial
investment.
Internal Rate of Return or IRR refers to the rate of interest
where NPV=0.
MEC and MEI
The IRR is also known as Marginal Efficiency of Capital or
MEC.
In other words, Marginal Efficiency of Capital is the rate of
discount which which makes the discounted present value
of expected income stream equal to cost of capital.
The increase in demand for Capital goods beyond
production capacity leads to rise in price of capital goods
increasing the cost of investment leading to decrease in
MEC.
This relationship between the interest rate and total
investment is shown by the marginal Efficiency of
Investment or MEI.
Tobin Q
Tobin q is measured by the formula:
Market value of installed capital/Replacement cost of
installed capital
The same can be explained with the help of regression line.
The Keynesian model: National income identity and equilibrium
The National income identity is:
Y = C + I + G + NX
The Keynesian equilibrium equation is:
Y = C0 + Cy ( Y - T) + Ip + G + NX
Notice that C has been replaced by the consumption function, and
investment by planned investment.
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Formal Model of Income
Determination
1. AD-AS approach, and
2. S-I approach.
At equilibrium,
Primary Functions:
Medium of Exchange
Measure of Value
Secondary Functions:
Standard of Deferred Payments
Store of Value
Functions of Money
Contingent Functions:
Basis of Credit Creation
Maximum Satisfaction
Distribution of National
Income
Increase in the Liquidity of
Capital
Bearer of option
QUESTIONS
Money can be defined as any
commodity that is generally
accepted as a _______________.
What are the four approaches
to money?
Chicago approach added
which factor to money?
What are the secondary
functions of money?
MONEY
CONCEPTS
CONCEPTS OF MONEY
Money has been used since
time immemorial. It has only
been changing form over time.
Since its evolution money took
several forms as:
Commodity Money
Metallic Money
Paper Money
Bank Deposits
Near Money
CONCEPTS OF MONEY
Commodity Money:
Merits:
Not an expensive system of
currency
Supply can easily be adjusted
according to the need
Easily transferrable
Demerits:
Always a possibility of excessive
supply of paper money which leads
to inflation in the economy and fall
in the value of the currency.
CONCEPTS OF MONEY
Bank Deposits:
There are three types of bank deposits:
Current Account Deposits
Saving Deposits
Time Deposits
Current A/C deposits are widely referred
to as demand deposits which are also
known as bank money and credit
money.
Conventional approach included only
demand deposits in the definition of
money but Chicago approach treats
saving and time deposits as close
substitute to demand deposits.
CONCEPTS OF MONEY
Near Money:
Money
Supply (Set
by Fed)
Demand for
Money
Equilibriu
m interest
rate
M
Players in the Money Supply Process
Central Bank
Banks (most important: depository banks;
also other financial intermediaries)
Depositors (households, firms)
Borrowers from banks (households, firms,
governments)
Behavior of each actor influences the
money supply.
Central Banks Balance
Sheet
CB Liabilities
Currency in circulationpaper money & coins
held by the nonfinancial sector (firms &
households)
Reservescommercial banks deposits at the
CB and vault cash (cash held in ATM machines
and branches of commercial banks). CB
requires banks to hold a minimum level of
reserves at the CB as a percentage of total
deposits required reserve ratio. But banks
may choose to hold excess reserves
MB = C + R
MB: Monetary Base
C: Currency in circulation
R: Reserves
Banks Create Deposit in a Fractional
Reserve System
When the CB injects 1 TL reserve into the
banking system through OMOs or disc.
loans, money supply increases by more
than 1 TL.
This is because the required reserve ratio
(RRR) is less than 100% of deposits. A
smaller RRR leads to a greater expansion
of the money supply for 1 TL injection.
First let us assume banks do not hold
excess reserves.
Deposit Creation: Single
Bank
When CB makes an open market purchase from
First National Bank (FNB), FNBs reserves
increase, securities decrease by 100 TL.
Since FNBs deposits dont change, this 100 TL
is excess reserve for FNB and it lends all of this
money to a firm. Opens a checking account for
the firm, loans and checkable deposits of FNB
increase by 100 TL.
When the borrower spends the credit, reserves
and checkable deposits disappear on FNBs T-
account.
When the firm X spends the credit, assuming
that nobody wants to keep extra cash, 100 TL
spent is deposited in a checking account at
another bank, Bank A. Then Bank As reserves
and checkable deposits increase by 100 TL.
Bank A must hold 10% required reserves, but
can lend the rest: 90 TL. When firm Y who
borrowed this 90 TL spends this loan, reserves
are deposited to another bank: Bank B.
Everytime new credit is creat ed, money
supply increases by: 100+90+81+72.9+.
= 100 (1+0.9+(0.9)2+(0.9)3+.)
=100.(1/10)
=1000 TL
As required reserve ratio(r) increases
(decreases), money multiplier 1/r
decreases (incr.) and money creation slows
down (accelerates).
INFLATION
Inflation
Coulborn: it is a state of too much money chasing too few
goods.
Two broad categories:
price inflation (generally called as inflation)
money inflation.
Money inflation is increase in the amount of currency in
circulation. Which may be due to:
Deficit financing : direct cause is printing of additional
currency on demand of the government to meet its
needs.
Additional money supply through foreign exchange
inflows in the form of capital, such as foreign direct
investment and foreign institutional investment,
tourism and other incomes from abroad.
Price inflation is a persistent increase in the general
price level or a persistent decline in the real
income of people, i.e. decline in value of money.
Concepts of Inflation
Headline Inflation: measure of the total inflation within an
economy
affected by the areas of the market which may experience
sudden inflationary spikes such as food or energy.
Hyperinflation: prices increase at such a speed that the
value of money erodes drastically
This is also known as galloping inflation or runaway
inflation.
Stagflation: a typical situation when stagnation and inflation
coexist.
Disinflation: a process of keeping a check on price rise by
deliberate attempts.
Deflation: a state when prices fall persistently; just opposite
to inflation
Inflationary Gap (Keynes): Excess of anticipated
expenditure over available output at base price
When money income exceeds the supply of goods and
services, a gap is created between demand and supply
What Rate of Price Rise is Inflation?
Some modern economists opine that only a
persistent, prolonged and sustained and a
considerable and appreciable rise in the general
price level can be called inflation.
175
Learning Outcome
To understand the meaning of
Business cycle and its different
phases
To understand the notion of
various theories of Business
Cycle and its contribution in the
concept
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Macroeconomics 3rd
Introduction
The economic history of the world
economy is essentially the history of
business cycleseconomic ups and
downs, booms and slumps, prosperity and
depression.
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Phases of Business Cycle
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Theories of Business Cycle
1. Pure Monetary Theory
2. Monetary Over-investment Theory
3. Schumpeters Interaction Theory
4. MultiplierAcceleration Interaction
Theory
5. Hicksian Theory of Trade Cycle
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The Pure Monetary Theory of
Business Cycle
According to this theory, the main
cause of business fluctuations is the
instability of the monetary and credit
system.
182
The Money Over-Investment
Theory
The monetary overinvestment theory emphasizes
the role of imbalance between the desired and actual
investments in economic fluctuations and the
imbalance between the investment in capital and
consumer goods industriesinvestment in the
former exceeding that in the latter.
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Criticism- Money Over-Investment
Theory (Contd.)
The monetary over-investment
theory lays undue emphasis on the
imbalance between investment in
capital goods and consumer goods
industries. In a modern economy,
such imbalances are self-correcting
and do not create serious
depression.
185
Schumpeters Innovation Theory of
Trade Cycle
According to Joseph A. Schumpeter, business cycles are
almost exclusively the result of innovations in the
industrial and commercial organization.
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Criticism- Schumpeters Innovation
Theory of Trade Cycle
According to M.W. Lee, An objective
evaluation of Schumpeters theory of the
cycle is not only difficult but also unavailing
because much of his arguments is based on
sociological rather than economic factors.
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Combinations of mpc (a) and accelerator
(b) cycles
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Trade Cycle Patterns with Different
Combinations of mpc (a) and accelerator (b)
190
Trade Cycle Patterns with Different Combinations
of mpc (a) and accelerator (b) (Contd.)
191
Criticism- Samuelsons
Model
Samuelsons model is regarded by its critics as far
too simple to explain fully what actually happens
during the period of economic fluctuations since it
is developed on highly simplifying assumptions.
192
Criticism- Samuelsons Model
(Contd.)
It assumes constancy of capital-output
ratio whereas there is a great likelihood of
change in this ratio during the periods of
upswings and downswings.
193
Hicksian Theory of Trade
Cycle
In his model, Hicks assumes an equilibrium rate of growth
in the model economy.
He assumes also that the autonomous investment
increases at a constant rate which always equals the rate
of increase in voluntary savings. The equilibrium growth
rate is determined by the rate of autonomous investment
and saving.
Hick assumes a Samuelson-type of consumption function,
Ct = aYt-1
Hicks distinguishes between autonomous and induced
investment function.
Hicks imagines ceiling and bottom for the upswing and
downswing.
194
Hicksian Trade Cycle
195
Criticism Hicksian Theory of Trade
Cycle
Hicksian theory does not provide sufficient
reasons for the linear consumption function
and a constant multiplier.
199
Highlights continued
US equity markets lose over $8 trillion in value
200
The Global Recession The
Business Cycle of 2008-09
The global recession originated in the US
the richest and the strongest economy of the
world in the later half of 2008 and spread
to almost all major economies of the world.
201
The US Economic Recession and the
World Economy
IMF, WB and UN bodies have given their estimates
of impact of the US economic recession in terms
of:
Decline in global growth rate
Decline in world trade
The global loss of trade
202
Revival of the Global
Economy
Most developed and developing economies
affected by the global recession have
adopted economic stimulus schemes.
203
What Business Cycle Theory Applies
to Global Recession?
Over-investment theory of business
cycle appears to offer a reasonable
explanation to the global crisis.
204
Policy Measures to Control Business
Cycle
1.Fiscal policy
2.Monetary policy.
205
Fiscal Policy Measures
Relationship between public
expenditure and GDP, and between
tax and GDP:
1. Public expenditure and GDP
2. Taxation and GDP
3. Counter-cyclical fiscal policy:
Automatic and Discretionary
changes
206
Monetary Policy Measures
1. Open Market Operations
2. The Bank Rate or Repo Rate
3. The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)
And
. Selective Credit Control Measures
. Moral Suasion
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Monetary Policy
Measures
Increasing the discount rate: The central
bank rediscounts the eligible papers offered
by commercial banks. This is also called
bank rate.
Higher reserve ratios:
Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)
Statutory Liquid Ratio (SLR)
Open market operations: directly sell
government securities to public and restrain
their disposable income
Selective credit control: discourages
consumption but not investment
Fiscal Policy Measures
The government may reduce public expenditure or
increase public revenue to keep a check on
inflation
Reducing public expenditure
When government spends on activities like
health, transport, communication, etc., income of
individuals increases; this in turn increases the
aggregate demand.
Therefore the reverse will also be true.
Increasing public revenue
Major source of government revenue is various types of
taxes
Increase in income tax leaves less of disposable income
in the hands of consumers
`
Learning Outcomes:
1. Meaning and Scope of monetary policy;
a) Excess reserves
b) Unencumbered government
securities, e.g. bonds of IDBI,
NABARD, Development Banks,
debentures of ports, trusts etc.
1) Credit rationing
2) Change in Lending Margins
3) Moral Suasion
4) Direct Controls
Limitations and Effectiveness of
Monetary Policy:
2. Government expenditure
3. Taxation
4. Public borrowings
Target Variables
Variables which are sought to be
changed through fiscal instruments
are:
1. Private disposable incomes,
Learning Objectives
To understand the fundamental principles of
how countries measure international business
activity,
To understand the critical differences between
trade in merchandise and services
To understand how countries with different
government policies toward international trade
and investments, or different levels of economic
development, differ in their balance of
payments
249 TMH Copyright 2010
Introduction
250
Macroeconomics 3rd
Current Account
251
Macroeconomics 3rd
Capital Account
252
Macroeconomics 3rd
Reserves
III. D. Reserves
1. Monetary gold
2. Special Drawing Rights
3. IMF reserve position
4. Foreign Exchange assets
253
Macroeconomics 3rd
Reserve assets
Reserve assets consist of those external
assets that are readily available to and
controlled by monetary authorities for direct
financing of payments imbalances, for
indirectly regulating the magnitude of such
imbalances through intervention in exchange
markets to affect the currency exchange rate
and/or for other purposes.
The category of reserve assets in the IMF's
Balance of Payments Manual, Fifth Edition
(BPM5) comprises:
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Macroeconomics 3rd
Contd
- Monetary gold;
- Special drawing rights (SDRs);
- reserve position in the Fund;
- Foreign exchange assets (consisting
of currency and deposits and
securities); and
- Other claims.
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Macroeconomics 3rd
Balance of payment equilibrium
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Macroeconomics 3rd
Balance of Payment Equilibrium:
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Macroeconomics 3rd
Types of BOP Equilibrium:
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Macroeconomics 3rd
Types of BOP Equilibrium:
(b) Dynamic Equilibrium: The
condition of dynamic equilibrium for
short periods of time is that exports
and imports differ by the amount of
short-term capital movements and
gold (net) and there are no large
destabilising short-term capital
movements. TMH Copyright 2010
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Macroeconomics 3rd
Types and Causes of BOP Disequilibrium:
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Macroeconomics 3rd
Types and Causes of BOP
Disequilibrium:
b) Secular Disequilibrium: The
secular or long-run disequilibrium in
BOP occur because of long-run and
deep seated changes in an economy
as it advances from one stage of
growth to another. (The current
account follows a varying pattern
from one state to another. In the
initial stages of development,
domestic investment exceeds
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Macroeconomics 3rd
Structural Disequilibrium
(c) Structural Disequilibrium: Structural disequilibrium can
be further bifurcated into:
(i) Structural Disequilibrium at Goods Level: Structural
disequilibrium at goods level occurs
when a change in demand or supply of exports or imports
alters a previously existing equilibrium, or when a change
occurs in the basic circumstances under which income is
earned or spent abroad, in both cases without the requisite
parallel changes elsewhere in the economy. (Suppose the
demand for Pakistani handicrafts falls off. The resources
engaged in the production of these handicrafts must shift to
some other line or the country must restrict imports,
otherwise the country will experience a structural
disequilibrium. TMH Copyright 2010
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Macroeconomics 3rd
General Measures to Correct BOP Disequilibrium:
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Macroeconomics 3rd
(a) Exchange Depreciation (Price Effect) or Devaluation (by
Government):
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Macroeconomics 3rd
(b) Deflate the Currency:
According to this method, the currency is
deflated. As the currency contracts, prices will
fall, which will stimulate exports and check
imports. But the method of deflation is also full of
dangers. If prices are forced down while costs,
which are proverbially rigid (especially as regards
wages in countries where trade unions are well
organised), do not follow suit, the country may
face a serious depression and unemployment.
Correcting the balance of payments, therefore,
once a disequilibrium has arisen is not an easy
matter.
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Macroeconomics 3rd
(c) Tariffs:
Tariff is a tax levied on imports. It is synonymous with
import duties or custom duties. Tariffs are used for two
different purposes;
- for revenue and
- for protection.
Revenue Tariffs are a source of government revenue
and Protective Tariffs are meant to maintain and
encourage those branches of home industry protected
by the duties.
Tariff duties are of four types:
(i) Ad Valorem Tariff: It is levied as a percentage
of the total value of the imported commodity.
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Macroeconomics 3rd
Tariffs:
(ii) Specific Duties: These are
levied per unit of the imported
commodity.
(iii) Compound Duties: These
are a mixture of above two.
(iv) Sliding Scale Duties:
These vary with the prices of
commodities imported.
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Macroeconomics 3rd
(d) Import Quotas:
As a protective device, import quotas are
alternative to tariffs. Under an import quota,
fixed amount of a commodity in volume or value
is allowed to be imported into the country
during a specified period of time. The major
objectives of import quotas are:
(i) to avoid foreign competition,
(ii) to provide greater administrative
flexibility,
(iii) to solve the problem of BOP and
BOT.
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Macroeconomics 3rd
(e) Export Duties:
When world prices are higher than
domestic prices, there is an incentive
to export. In such a situation, a
government may levy export duties.
Export duties are used to prevent
exports. The reason may be that
exported commodities are required
domestically.
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Macroeconomics 3rd