Pakistan: A Country on the Brink

IAFS 1000
Pakistans Creation
Originally part of British India. The British used the
divide between the Muslims & Hindus in a strategy to
maintain control.
Pakistan was formed in 1947 out of partition from
British controlled India.
During the split from India, a mass migration of over
15 Million. Muslims were going to Pakistan as Hindus
were leaving for India.
The creation of Pakistan was tumultuous, resulting in
chaos, riots, deaths & crimes against humanity. This
deepened the rift between Muslims and Hindus.
 Partition:

Partition left both India & Pakistan devastated socially &

economically.
Some of the atrocities committed between the Muslims &
Hindus were widespread rape, pillaging & murder,
bordering on genocide.
This included the bombing of trains of immigrants by
Hindus and even filling trains full of the dismembered
bodies & sending them across the border into Pakistan.
 The Early Years
After Partition - Pakistan & East Pakistan on the
other side of India.
East Pakistan rebelled and split from Pakistan in
the 1971 India/Pakistan war to become
Bangladesh.
Pakistan itself is divided into four main areas:
Baluchistan, North-West Frontier Province
(NWFP), Punjab, & Sindh.
Another province, Kashmir, is still under dispute
with India & has been the cause of war between
the countries in 1947, 1965, 1971 & 1999.
Jammu and Kashmir

Dispute between Pakistan & India over Jammu &

Kashmir goes back to partition of 1947.
Initially, Kashmir was to join with Pakistan, but the
Hindu Maharaja, Hari Singh, refused. Pakistan tried
to scare him with military force.
In response, Singh signed an article of accession,
Kashmir would join India if India helped repel
Pakistani forces.
Territory has been disputed ever since.
 Pakistan and India
India & Pakistan have been archrivals since
the partition and disputes over Kashmir have
propagated this.
They compete politically, economically and
militarily.
They are both nuclear nations with limited first
strike ability.
Given the mutual hatred and history of war
between these two nations and Indias rising
prosperity, there is a high level of instability in
the region.
 Pakistan Today
Although the 4
provinces in
Pakistan are
officially united, each
one has its individual
culture and identity.
Some even have
strong separatist
sentiments such as
the NWFP which
harbors Al Qaeda &
the Taliban.
 Politics
Pakistan goes back and forth from
being a democracy and being ruled by
a military dictator after a coup.
Pakistani politics have a tradition of
being underhanded, violent, and
volatile.
History of Pakistans Political Leaders
1948: Muhammad Ali Jinnah, founding father of Pakistan, dies
1951: Jinnahs successor, Liaquat Ali Khan is assassinated.
1956: Constitution proclaims Pakistan as Islamic Republic.
1958: General Ayyub Khan becomes president.
1969: General Yahya Khan takes over in a coup.
1973: Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (Benazirs father) becomes PM.
1979: General Zia ul-Haq overthrows and hangs Bhutto in a
military coup & becomes president. Daughter Benazir goes into
exile, returns in 1986.
1988: Gen. Zia dies in mysterious plane crash. Bhuttos
Pakistans Peoples Party wins election & she becomes PM.
1990: Benazir Bhutto is dismissed as PM on charges of
incompetence & corruption.
 History of Pakistans Leaders Continued
1991: PM Nawaz Sharif begins economic liberalization.
1993: PM Sharif resigns under pressure from military. General election
brings Bhutto back to power.
1996: Pres. Leghari dismisses Bhuttos govt. amid corruption allegations.
Nawaz Sharif returns as PM after his Pakistan Muslim League wins.
1999: Bhutto and her husband are convicted of corruption and sentenced.
Benazir flees to exile. Later that year Sharif is overthrown by General Pervez
Musharraf in a military coup.
2007: Bhuttos and Sharifs parties protest Musharraf. Musharraf takes over
media and communication networks.
2008: Musharraf forced to step down in face of impeachment/Zardari elected
2010 Constitutional change making President even more of a figurehead
2011 Musharraf indicted for assassination of Benazir Bhutto
2013 Nawaz Sharif elected again as PM/ Zardari finishes term as President
Benazir Bhutto's Timeline
Bhuttos Assassination 2007
 The Musharraf Era
Musharraf came to power in a 1999 military coup, self
appointed as president in 2001.
Enjoyed western support due to his announced
intentions in 2002 to combat extremists in Pakistan.
Legitimacy of his rule is dubious - In 2007 he suspended
the constitution and jailed several supreme court
members before they were about to evaluate the validity
of his election.
During Musharrafs time Pakistan enjoyed impressive
economic performance.
Musharrafs approval rating plummeted to 15%.
Pakistan, The U.S. and the War on Terror
US supported Pakistan and Musharraf ever since
he pledged to be an ally to the US in the war on
terror.
US placed its faith in Musharraf by appropriating
over $10B in foreign aid since 9/11.
Stark contrast to the sanctions US had against
Pakistan before Musharraf pledged his support.
Question now is whether or not the US should
have continued to support Musharraf since he
became widely unpopular and Illegitimate.
 Should the US have continued to
support Musharraf? And then Zardari?
YES: The US was familiar with him, he
offered continuity. A different leader could
have been worse politically. He is more
moderate than Sharif and the PPP.
NO: The aid given him did very little. He
was undemocratic and vastly unpopular.
By continuing to support him the US lost
the credit it has gained in the Middle East
by supporting an Islamic nation.
Current
Situation
Mumbai killings
Bhutto/Zardari
Musharraf gone
Judge
Swat Valley and FATA
Allowed to govern themselves
Sharia law
Predator strikes into these areas
Pakistans Political Parties
PML (Q) - Pakistan Muslim League
(Quaid-I-Azam)
Kings Party - staunch supporter of
Musharraf, close to military
Conservative, right wing
PML (N) - Pakistan Muslim League
(Nawaz)
Split from PML (Q) after 1999 coup & Nawaz
Sharif was exiled
Led by Sharif, centered in Punjab
 PPP - Pakistan Peoples Party
Led by Benazir Bhutto until assassination
Now headed by Asif Ali Zardari (Husband) &
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (son)
Centered in Sindh, also strong in Punjab
Socialist, democracy advocates
MMA - Majlis-i-Amal
Alliance of 6 major religious parties
Formed after Musharraf joined War on Terror
Controlled Baluchistan & NWFP fm 02-08
Supportive of a theocracy
 ANP - Awami National Party
Secular, nationalistic Pashtuns
Centered in NWFP
Close ties to Afghanistans president Hamid
Karzai
Wants to reform tribal political systems
MQM - Muttahida Quami Movement
Based in Sindh
pro-Musharraf coalition
militant and unreliable
Pakistan Elections
Elections were to be held Jan. 8th 2008
Bhutto assassinated Dec. 27th
Two alternative versions to assassination
Election Delayed
PPP and PML (N) wanted elections held as
planned (Zardari & Sharif)
Electoral Commission decides to push election
back to Feb. 18th
Supposedly independent, likely controlled by
Musharraf
Army withdrawal from politics
Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani now in charge
Kiyani ordered withdrawal from politics
300 army officers told to leave their
ministerial positions
Kiyani ordered soldiers, officers not to
take sides in election
U.S. has demanded military stay out of
political affairs, threatening to slow aid if it
doesnt ($5.4 bil to fight militants so far)
February 2008 Election Results
268 total seats
PML (Q) - 42
PPP - 113
PML (N) - 85
MMA - 3
ANP - 10
MQM - 19
Muree Declaration
PPP and PML (N) make deal to share
power in Punjab, federal government
Zardari (Husband) becomes President
PPP accepts Sharifs demands to
restore 60 sacked judges
PML (N) drops campaign pledges to
rewrite constitution & try Musharraf
Secularism in NWFP
After Feb. elections, ANP forms
coalition with PPP to control NWFP
MMAs mullahs ousted from power
Hopefully close ties to Hamid Karzai
will lead to greater border cooperation
Hoping to reform politics in region to
reduce mullahs control
What has new coalition done ?
Freed all 60 sacked judges
Pledged to reinstate them, but no date set
Appointed Raza Gillana as PM
PPP loyalist, likely to pass off post to
Zardari after by-elections
Zardari not completely alienating
Musharraf allies
Brought MQM into coalition in Sindh
Internal Actors
Pakistan Army
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)
Link to LET, & JUD
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET)
Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD)
Banned by UN Security Council and Pakistan
Taliban
Al Qaeda
Not the same as militant group
Dilemma
Misperceived external threats

Legitimate internal threats

http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=OR14_hRCAKE
Grand Bargain
Addressing sources of Pakistani
insecurity:
Inclusion of local insurgent groups into
political process
Resolve Kashmir dispute with India
Durand Line
Long-term political vision for FATA
Transparency and Cooperation in
regional objectives.
The Future in Pakistan
Pakistan will crumble into 4 states
Islamists like Taliban leader Meshud will turn
Pakistan into an Iran-like theocracy
Pakistans nuclear weapons will fall into the
hands of Islamists or worseterrorists.
Can the army prevent these doomsday
scenarios or will the army succumb to
Islamist elements as well?