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MAT 5932
The Lanchester
Equations of Warfare
Explained
Friday, June 2, 2017
Larry L. Southard
Agenda
Heterogeneous
attrition is assessed by weapon type and target
type and other variability factors
The Homogeneous Model
An academic model
Useful for the review of
ancient battles
Not proper model for
modern warfare
Heterogeneous Models
CONCEPT: describe each type of
system's strength as a function
(usually sum of attritions) of all types
of systems which kill it
ASSUME: additivity, i.e., no synergism;
can be relaxed with complex
enhancements; and proportionality,
i.e., loss rate of Xi is proportional to
number of Yj which engage it.
No closed solutions, but can be solved
numerically
The Heterogeneous
model
More appropriate for modern battlefield.
The following battlefield functions are
sometimes combined and sometimes
modeled by separate algorithms:
direct fire
indirect fire
air-to-ground fire
ground-to-air fire
air-to-air fire
minefield attrition
The Heterogeneous
model
The following processes are directly or indirectly
measured in the heterogeneous model:
Opposing force strengths
FEBA (forward edge of the battle area) movement
Decision-making (including breakpoints)
Engagement Decision
Sensing
Target Selection
Movement
Lanchester Attrition Model
CONCEPT: describe the rate at which a force loses systems as a function of the
size of the force and the size of the enemy force. This results in a system of
differential equations in force sizes x and y.
dx dy
f 1 x, y,... f 2 x, y,...
dt dt
The solution to these equations as functions of x(t) and y(t) provide insights
about battle outcome.
dx dy
ay and bx
dt dt
Lanchester Attrition Model - Square
Law
ab t ab t
x(t ) 1 x 0
a
y e x 0
a
y e
2 b 0
b 0
Square Law - Force Levels
Over Time
X=30, Y=60, a=.04, b=.04 X=30,
Example:
70
60 60
50
50
40
40
e
l
l
v
v
e
e
30
L
e
e
30
c
r
r
20
o
F
F
0 20
10
4
10
0
Time 8
-10 0
12
0 1 2 3 4 5
Y Force
X Force -10
60
50
40
30
Force Levels
20
10
0
0
5
Time -10
10
15
Y Force
20
X Force
25
90
80
70
60
Force Level
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
12
Time
24
-10
36
48
Y Force
60 X Force
120
100
100
80
80
e
l
e
l
60
v
60
e
L
L
40
e
c
c
r
r
o
o
20 40
F
0
19 0
Time 38 20
-20
57 Y Force
X Force 0
0
5
5
1
2
-20
y0
b
Lanchester Square Law - Other
Answers
How many survivors
are there when X
wins a fight-to-the- a 2
x x 0 y0
2
finish? f
b
ln a otherwise
(Assume battle
termination at x(t) = ab b
y0 x 0
xBP or y(t) = yBP) a
In what case does X
win? y2
1 2 BP
y b x2
1 2
0 BP
x 0