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Patriot Missile Failure

Benji Boban

SYSM 6309: Advanced Requirements Engineering

Spring 2012

5/19/2012

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 Patriot Missile System
Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target or
Patriot
Its initial purpose was as an anti-aircraft system, but it
quickly became used as anti-tactile ballistic missiles.
The Patriot Missile system consists of an advanced
radar system and an anti-ballistic missile.
The system consists of 4 functions:
Communications,
Command and Control,
Radar surveillance
Missile guidance.

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 Patriot Missile System, cont..
AN/MPQ -53 or 65 radar set
Consists of a
scanned array radar with Identification Friend or Foe technology
Electronic Counter Countermeasure (ECCM)
TVM (Track Via Missile) guidance system http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot#cite_note-
DACS_Working_Paper-12

The AN/MPQ is a singe unit, as opposed to multiple radars for the

system. Basically it is the only array used from missile detection to the
missile engagement/destruction.
AN/MSQ-104 engagement control station
Consists of
Weapons control computer (WCC) - The computer of the patriot missile systems
Data Link Terminal The interface to the missile launchers
UHF communications array Creates the medium for network communications between the patriot missile
systems
RLRIU (Routing Logic Radio Interface Unit) Router for all the data traffic of the patriot system
Two computer manstations - stations where humans (operators) interface with the system

It is contained in a mobile shelter capable of withstanding

Electromagnetic Interference, chemical/biological attacks, and also acts
as protection against the elements.

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 Patriot Missile System cont
OE-349 Antenna Mast Group
Consists of a
mobile platform
4 antennas in two pairs with its associated amplifiers and radios.
It is used to create the patriot communications network.
M901 Launching Station
Launching stations which contain the missile and the launchers
Remotely controlled
Self contained
Patriot Missile
MIM-104A solely for anti-aircraft purpose http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-
104_Patriot#cite_note-DACS_Working_Paper-12

MIM104C/D/E (PAC-2) - for anti-missile; intended to explode on engagement

Version MIM104C was used in the Gulf War
MIM104F (PAC-3) latest version; hit to engage
They consist of 4 sections
Radome the tip of the missile, contains the window and protection for the RF seeker
Guidance section Consists of the auto-guidance systems and also the Track via guidance System (from
ground control)
Warhead section
Propulsion section
Control actuator section controls the fins of the missile for stability and steering

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 Use in the Gulf War
The Persian Gulf War was the first usage of the Patriot missile
system to shoot down ballistic missiles as opposed to only aircraft.
It was used 40 times to shoot down missiles, primarily Scud or Al
Hussein short range ballistic missiles.
The first engagement, which was initially reported as successful,
occurred on January 18, 1991.
Two camps debated the success of the program
Theodore Postol of MIT and Reuven Pedatzur of Tel Aviv University stated less
then 10% success rate conducted via video tape analysis
Charles A Zraket of Harvard University and Peter D. Zimmerman of the Center
for Strategic and International Studies debated the calculation method of the
success rate and accuracy.

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 Failures of the Patriot Missile Systems
The initial launch was actually a
computer glitch
The worst failure was when an army
barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
was hit by a Scud missile and 28
people died.
There was a difference between the
calculation of the success rate http://www.sitesatlas.com/Maps/Maps/604.htm
between Saudi Arabian setups and
the Israeli setups.
The Saudi Arabian setups considered
deflections as success
The Israel setups, due to the targets
being civilian areas, considered only
annihilation of the missile as success.
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 Reason of the Cause of Failure
First step to resolving any problem is to
clearly define the problem
As we are looking at the problem in Hindsight, it is
relatively easy
Problem Statement: System failed to
identify a enemy missile after the system
had been running continuously for over 100
hours
If we assume the Patriot Missile Systems
was correctly working on the European
War front prior to the Persian Gulf War,
then these problems can be considered as
requirements creep.
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 Problems
4 major areas in which there were problems:

1. Domain/Environment Change
2. Software
1. Software clock drift/Round-off error
2. Reboot time
3. Software delivery time
4. Software upgrade time
3. Hardware
1. No Recorder
2. Difference in Ballistic Missiles versus Aircraft/Cruise Missiles
4. User Ware
1. No Auditory Alarms
2. Information on Operation doctrine

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 Domain/Environment Change
Environment change Changes were accounted for during the conflict. As
information from all sources became available, software changes were
made from August 1990 to February 199 1 by the Patriot Project Office in
Huntsville, Alabama, to adapt the system to the Desert Storm environment.
[1]
The major change needed was the reduction of the dependence of the
system to its mobile characteristic. The Patriot system was originally
designed to operate in Europe against Soviet medium- to high-altitude
aircraft and cruise missilesTo avoid detection it was designed to be mobile
and operate for only a few hours at one location. [1] THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT REQUIREMENTS CREEP.

http://www.probertencyclopaedia.com/photolib/maps/Map%20of%20Soviet-
Finnish%20Front%20During%20Second%20World%20War%201945.htm

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 Software
1. Software clock drift/Round-off error Root Cause
2. Reboot time
3. Software delivery time
4. Software upgrade time

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 Software cont
The generally Root Cause Analysis conclusion is a software based round-off error
occurred causing the failure
The algorithm used to calculate the path of the Scud Missile was called the Range-
Gate Algorithm.
However since it was only 24bit machine, there was a loss in precision as the time
increased or the velocity has significantly higher.
The System had been on for over 100 hours and therefore the Range-Gate algorithm
was significantly off and no missile was detected in the Dhahran attack.

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 Software cont
Reboot time to reset the clock
At the beginning of the War, only about a two minute window to actually
detect and track the missile. A reboot took 1.5 to 2 minutes, therefore a
chance to miss an incoming missile.
Software delivery time
The upgrade patch took 10 days to reach onsite.
Software upgrade time
1 2 hours of downtime. If I was a captain on the front lines, this would
be very dangerous.

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 Hardware
Missile Requirements
Went from Mach 2 to Mach 5
Solved via Software upgrade. Establishes presence of some
form of feedback loop.
Recorder
Not a requirement in the initial build.
External recorders available, but Army officials did not want use
it because of worry of causing system failures. However, Israelis
used one and found the problem a lot sooner (14 days before the
disaster)

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 User
Audible Alarm
The operators had to stare at the DCC, no audible alarm to
inform them of an incoming missile.
This may/may not have affected the above described problem,
but does show a lack of end level user feedback/resolution
Operation Doctrine not explained to operators
The Patriot system was originally designed to operate in Europe
against Soviet medium- to high-altitude aircraft and cruise
missilesTo avoid detection it was designed to be mobile and
operate for only a few hours at one location. [3]
If this was explained to operators, then they may have been
more amiable to looking of problems.

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 User
Operation Doctrine not explained to operators
The Patriot system was originally designed to operate in Europe
against Soviet medium- to high-altitude aircraft and cruise
missilesTo avoid detection it was designed to be mobile and
operate for only a few hours at one location. [3]
If this was explained to operators, then they may have been
more amiable to looking of problems.
Communications process were broken down
Two main areas:
1. Field Users to Army Officals
When the Patriot Office told the Army, extended use can cause miscalculations,
they ignored the memo and did not tell the field users because they thought the
Patriot System was still being used as a mobile system. [2]
2. Israeli Army to US Army Officials
The US Army described the Israeli use as atypical [2]

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 User cont
Israeli Army
Officials
Patriot
Missile
System
Operator

US Army Officials

Communications process were broken down

Two main areas:
1. Field Users to Army Officals
When the Patriot Office told the Army, extended use can cause miscalculations, they ignored the
memo and did not tell the field users because they thought the Patriot System was still being used
as a mobile system. [2]
2. Israeli Army to US Army Officials
The US Army described the Israeli use as atypical [2]

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 Life Cycle
http://www.utdallas.edu/~chung/SYSM6309/process.
pdf Page 9

It was obvious, the army and the contractor had gone through a few
cycles of this, i.e. 6 software updates during the war
However, if just one more round had occurred faster with the
information of the system being used to guard barracks, then the
problem may have been avoided.
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 Bibliography
[1] MIM-104 Patriot ://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-
104_Patriot#Patriot_in_the_Persian_Gulf_War.2FOperation_Desert
_Storm_.28January-February_1991.29
[2] Patriot Missile Defense: Software Problem Led to System Failure at
Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, GAO/IMTEC-92-26 Patriot Missile Software
Problem, http://www.gao.gov/assets/220/215614.pdf (February
1992)

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 Questions

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